저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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Paramount의 Warner Bros. Discovery 인수는 2027년 3월 재판으로 지연되며 하루 약 700만달러 지연 위약금 발생. AI 지출 상위 1% 기업은 직원당 월 약 4,883달러를 AI에 쓰나 평균은 10.66달러로 ROI 불확실성 존재. Ackman은 Pershing Square에서 Anthropic을 OpenAI보다 긍정적으로 보며, 최근 Alphabet을 매도하고 Uber, Meta, Microsoft 등에 투자했다고 언급. 인터뷰는 그의 리더십과 과거 파산 위기 회고 중심. 자산 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없음.
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When he's passionate about something, he's like a dog with a bone and he's just like, "This is how I feel and I've got the facts to back it up in my opinion and I'm going to like make sure that I persuade you into my opinion." Mergers, AI spending, and Bill Ackman. Welcome back to Fortune Daily and here's what I'm thinking about today.
So, a federal judge just put a firm date on when we can expect an answer to the biggest will they, won't they question in Hollywood. And don't worry, it's not anytime soon. A March 2027 trial has been set for the big antitrust challenges to Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. It's yet another setback for Paramount, which had hoped to close the merger this very summer.
But in mid-July, a coalition of state attorneys general and the Writers Guild of America filed lawsuits to stop the deal in its tracks. A judge issued a temporary restraining order and yesterday set the trial date for March 2nd. So, that timeline guarantees at least seven more months of limbo and headlines, adding strain for both companies and the financiers backing the 110-plus billion-dollar deal.
Because this delay comes with a very real price tag. Under the merger agreement, Paramount must pay Warner shareholders about $7 million for every single day after September the 30th that the deal has not closed. That is a hefty amount of cash. A March trial date means Paramount will owe well over $1 billion in ticking fees before the judge rules.
So, of course, there could always be a settlement before then, but there's no sign right now of any negotiating taking place. Looking past the immediate corporate intrigue of this story, this battle is ultimately about who controls the pipes of culture. If these two media heavyweights join forces, one single company will own a huge chunk of the movies, of the shows, of the sports, and the news that most of us watch.
That changes how much you pay for streaming, it changes how many choices you have between apps, and importantly, it also changes how many buyers creative workers can sell to. It's also a test case because if it goes ahead, it sends a very clear signal that very large media mergers are fair game in a world where Netflix and Amazon and Apple are already giants.
If it doesn't, it's a warning shot for the next wave of consolidation. Now, it's time to dive into the data with today's big number. An analysis of this data is done in collaboration with the Ramp Economics Lab. And you should be sitting down for this one because it's pretty big. So, today's big number is $4,883.33.
That's how much the top 1% of AI spending companies shell out every month per employee. For contrast, the average business is spending just $10.66. That's the price price of, say, a basic seat license on a shared enterprise subscription. The top 1% are dropping 400 times more than that. Ramp's AI index measures actual corporate spending using actual payment data, and it captures a snapshot of how intensely the most advanced AI adopters are spending.
Effectively, how much they're betting on each employee per month. In a second, I'll be chatting to my colleague Emily Furlong to dig deeper into today's big number. The big number is powered by Ramp, a finance platform built to get other companies to spend less. The median company on Ramp cuts expenses 5% and grows revenue 16% in its first year alone.
Learn more at ramp.com. So, now I'm here with Emily Furlong, senior AI reporter, to dig a bit deeper into that big number. So, Emily, we've got some companies that are spending upwards of $4,000 per month per employee on AI, and we've got others who are spending $10. That's a huge gap. Does it actually matter?
Is the size of spend significant to a company's productivity? I think what we're seeing is that companies don't know how to measure that. So, there has been a backlash against these really hefty AI bills. So, now if you notice, the headlines are talking about what's the ROI? Is this Is more AI mean, you know, more products, more money, more revenue?
And I think the consensus is it it speeds up the work, and more gets done, but it's unclear if that's actually making more money. So, they don't they don't know if it's worth it, so that's where you're seeing some of the pullback, and we saw last week OpenAI slashed slashed costs on their recent model.
And so, they're trying to make it cheaper. What does, on a concrete level, what does a $4,800 per month spend look like? Mhm. I think it's probably in the engineering department. So, they give them access to the APIs for these different AI models, and so they're just cranking away at their computer using what's called tokens, which is kind of like currency in this in this world.
And so, they're just um you know, sending a lot of requests in, and it's using a lot of compute power, and so they're racking up really big bills. But then, there's also just subscriptions, you know, it's probably Mhm. anywhere from 20 to $200 per person. Um and so, that's the combination of of costs.
And I'm sure the question on everyone's lips is what would you spend $4,800 on this month if you had that kicking around? Probably wouldn't be up all night using AI. I'd probably go on a good vacation and get away from AI. I think that's a very good call, actually. Thank you for joining us. Pershing Square founder and CEO Bill Ackman is as outspoken as he is ambitious.
He sat down with Fortune editor-in-chief Alison Shontell to talk about big bets and his polarizing playbook. Alison, thank you for joining us. So, you recently went to Bill Ackman's very beautiful office in Manhattan to interview him. Um how do you prepare for an interview with someone as direct and opinionated as Bill Ackman?
I do a ton of research. My goal is to try and understand how he thinks, how he'll answer questions, and to be as informed about him as I possibly can so we don't waste time in the interview. He's got a big job, I've got a big job. Nobody wants to waste their time. So, I spend a ton of time prepping so that the conversation is fun, flows, I feel prepared, I kind of know how he might answer things, um and I kind of know what will be something he is enjoys talking about, something where I'm going to have to press a little bit more.
So, it's a lot of research. And you spoke to him about um office culture at Pershing Square, which I thought was really interesting. Let's watch a clip and then I've got a follow-up question. How are you building the culture of the firm to pick these bets? Sure. So, first of all, I'm a big in-the-office believer.
So, it's actually 5 days a week, you know, uh 10 months of the year. The summer actually the investment team all collocates. The investment team's all in an office uh out out east, as they say, uh in in in Bridgehampton. But the rest of the firm, you have a choice. You can come into the office or you can and you can work from home unless there's something really important going on where we need to bring everyone in.
I guess so. Yes. Um first of all, do you have any plans to colocate colocate Fortune to the beach in the summer? Cuz I think we'd all be very keen. I think that would be awesome. I think we should push for that hard. I will uh bring it up in the next SLT meeting. Please do, and I'm going to hold you to it.
So, his approach it seems quite unique. You speak to a lot of leaders the whole time. This sort of collocating for 2 months of the year, is that something you've ever heard before? Um kind of what does it say about him as a leader? I haven't heard about typical collocating, but you everybody's return-to-office plan is a little bit different.
But in general, the executives we're talking to are very pro 5 days a week. So, that doesn't surprise me to hear. Um but what I think is pretty genius about the plan is like if you or I had the summers to be fully remote, it would feel a lot better to be in the office. We're 4 days a week in the office right now, going on five probably.
Um would feel great if it was the summer that we were flexed for. Um so, I think it's really smart plan. And his employees seem to like it from It buys a lot of goodwill. Give me a sense what else you felt about Bill as a leader or any insights you got from your time with him. Yeah, I think, you know, he is a big believer that capitalism can solve most problems.
And one of the biggest problems we have in America is that just not enough people are participating it participating in it in the in the stock market in particular. Um so, he's very um focused on helping come up with policies and using his large 2.7 million followers to activate on Twitter around this topic.
Um he sees, you know, Mondani coming into New York and kind of a more socialist agenda as the affordability gap um gets really insane. And he's not for that. He thinks capitalism can solve a lot of problems. So, even at his own firm, he told me they recently um had two public offerings at Pershing Square.
And he told me that every employee, there's only 48 of them, but that every employee now owns um the equivalent of millions of dollars worth of shares from the front desk people to the dozen or so partners that he works with actually pick the investments they do. Wow. Um so, they're doing pretty well.
If you're working for Bill, you're doing okay. Yeah, look, a hedge fund life, there's a reason the office is so gorgeous. It's a little bit different than media. I'd love that to be our office someday, but a ways to go. And did you get a sense from him about how he decides which topics to weigh in on on X because Ackman is very vocal.
He writes these actually very articulate essays quite frequently. How does he choose when he's going to speak out? Well, first off, I think he's actually a really good writer. And And as you and I know, that is a skill that a lot of people don't have and it's a very powerful skill. It's why we have our jobs.
It's why he has 2.7 million followers. He's not just thinking something, he can articulate it in a way that people can grasp onto whether they love it or they hate it. He's not afraid to be polarizing. Um one of the things I thought was really funny when I was researching him was even from a young age, he clearly was very verbose.
Um he had a friend in his yearbook in high school write, "A closed mouth gathers no foot." And so, like even then, clearly he was an outspoken guy. Um you know, very self-confident, um assured of himself. And so, I think but he also does his homework and he does a ton of research. And when he's passionate about something, he's like a dog with a bone.
And he's just like, "This is how I feel and I've got the facts to back it up in my opinion and I'm going to like make sure that I persuade you into my opinion." But he also wants to be challenged. It's something he said he expects of all of his um um he works with at the companies he's investing in or when he's sitting on a board or even his own board as employees.
He's like, "I want them to fight back. I want them to give me a smart argument as to why I'm wrong, and I'm happy to listen." But, he thinks that speaking truth and arguing is actually a really healthy thing for society. So, he likes to kind of roll up his sleeves and fight. Let's talk about setbacks for a second.
So, you talked to him about the mammoth and unsecured personal loan that he took out from J.P. Morgan um in the mid-2010s, I think, to stabilize Pershing Square at a time when it was under a lot of pressure as a fund. Let's take a look at the clip. We had basically $4 billion in Pershing Square Holdings even at the bottom being down 30 or so percent.
And I said, "Look, if all of the investor capital leaves and our open-ended funds, now we have permanent capital. We'll have 100% permanent capital. It's a much better base to build a building off of." So, I brought all the employees together and I said, "Look, it's not permanent capital simply because it's a public company.
It's permanent capital uh only when you own enough of the stock. So, uh this was a time where I decided to borrow some money, which I did. Quite a bit. I borrowed $300 million. It was the biggest personal unsecured loan ever granted to an individual by J.P. Morgan. I believe that's the case. And uh I used that plus some capital I took out of the hedge fund to buy enough of a stake of of our public vehicle uh so that we uh it became permanent capital.
And then I called all the employees together and I said, "We are better positioned today than any time in our history. We could have the holy grail. We have permanent capital. All we need to do is stick to our core principles, work hard, and we're going to compound our way out of this mess. And then we also have to treat all our investors fairly.
Everyone wants their money can have their money." And did you really believe that? Did you believe 100% believe that. And it was true. Uh the thought of taking out a $300 million loan gives me heart palpitations. I I think for him, too. Uh well, that's what I wanted to ask you. He's talking about it very calmly now with the benefit of hindsight.
How do you think he would have he approached that in the moment? What sense did you get about how he approaches failure, setbacks? Oh, I think it was dark. So, one of the things in prepping for this interview that I did was listen to every recent in the last few years interview with Bill I could get my hands on.
And one was he did a 3-hour podcast with Lex Fridman that I listened to twice. And he talks about this pretty in-depth. And much more raw than I got him to do in this hour, but really he was saying like uh he's going through divorce. Uh at the start of it he was weighing a divorce and then he started going through a divorce.
So, he was living in a different place from his kids. His firm was getting squeezed by Carl Icahn, which he didn't mention in this clip, but I got him to talk about a little bit later. They had kind of like a heated rivalry and this is a bit of a vendetta and Carl really found a good position to balance make some money and make him really sweat.
Um and yeah, I think it was really really hard. And he talks about you know, I just I didn't want to go down that way. And he I guess had never defaulted on anything and he was able to finagle this huge lifeline from JP Morgan. I really don't know where he would be if that hadn't solidified. I don't think he knows where he'd be if that didn't solidify.
But he was telling Lex Fridman in their interview like, you know, I was fearing I I was going to lose all my money. I'm going through this divorce that's going to take all my money like that I don't have. I'm going to have to fire all these people. Like I'm going to be total failure and like maybe a judge will find something to blame me on and I'll go to jail.
He was really spiraling. So, I think it was incredibly dark and he talks about you know, I in the interview that I did with him as well just make a little bit of progress at a time. Like just put one foot in front of the other. It's like climbing a mountain and then suddenly you can find eventually you'll look back and you that you've dug yourself out.
I think it was very much one foot in front of the other. Um some takeaways in this conversation. So, if I'm an investor watching watching your conversation with Bill Ackman what can I learn about investing in the age of AI in particular? So, we talked about some of these trillion-dollar IPOs that have happened or are happening, namely SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI.
Um he's recently invested in a few tech stocks. He His firm only does about a dozen investments that they really put their weight behind. And recently, he invested in He took money out of Alphabet, which I thought was interesting, but put it into Uber, into Meta, I think into Microsoft, uh into a couple.
And um he really feels like Anthropic is from his vantage point, the fastest revenue growth he's ever seen. Yeah. He and also on track to be uh very well off financially comparatively to OpenAI, which the economic model doesn't quite work. And even I met with the founder of uh OpenAI a couple weeks 2 weeks ago, Greg Brockman, and I asked him about the OpenAI business model, like, what is the plan?
And there wasn't a really articulate thing there. It was like the promise of it can be really big, but it's not yet realized, and I don't think that's going to hold up well in a roadshow. Um I think that's going to be a little bit scary um for investors if if they're going public later this year. And and Bill seemed to be a bit skeptical of, you know, with no inside knowledge, just from his vantage point, of the economic model of OpenAI right now, more bullish on Anthropic.
Um but all of it, you know, I think he thinks this this is a really significant moment, and it's not to be ignored. Mhm. Yeah. Your podcast is called Titans and Disruptors of Industry. As our editor-in-chief, what constitutes or who constitutes a titan in your book? Yeah, so we come out with a franchise called uh the most powerful people list, as you know, you are uh overseeing our most powerful women franchise, which we've been doing for almost 30 years.
Um but really, I look at like who are the most powerful figures, who are the most influential, who has a reach beyond their own organization and into the outside world. Um and you cannot deny that Bill has that. Plus, he's built a huge, um, incredible firm. Um, he's a Wall Street titan, no doubt. He's worth $8 billion.
So, he's influential. He uses his platform to be even more influential. Um, I think by every count, every point he would count as a titan. Allison, thank you so much. It was a great interview with Bill. Thank you. So, finally, a new era of glamorous travel is about to take off. Fortune's tech editor, Alexi Robichaux, gives us the details on a new category of civil aircraft.
This is the business of luxury. So, what we're talking about here are, they call them eVTOL. They're all electric, first of all. Six to 12 rotors on them, sort of like those drones. They take off and land vertically like a helicopter. Four or five people can fit inside them. Some people have called them flying cars, but that's not really like an accurate description.
They're not meant to operate like cars. Obviously, these are completely novel aircraft. The FAA hasn't certified a new type of aircraft since the 1940s. So, it's going to be natural that a lot of people are going to look at these things and be like, "Whoa, like, this thing is really funky-looking. I'm not getting in this thing." And if you talk to proponents of these aircraft, what they say is that they could be safer than a lot of the traditional helicopters, for instance.
So, there's a few companies already doing this or working on the technology. Some of them have been working on it for 10 years or more now. Joby Aviation is one. Another company called Beta, Archer Aviation is another. Or, their hope is to launch commercial service by the summer of 2028, time it with the Summer Olympics that are happening in LA.
Several of them are actually public companies. They're actually already trading. Um, they've gone public in in recent years. Market caps in the 8 to 15 billion dollars. Often still founder-led companies, so even though they are public companies, they kind of they look a lot like startups. And when they when they launch, some of them may coordinate with some of the the services like uh Delta, United.
It could So, you might see branded air taxi services through those traditional airlines as well. The idea is that by by doing more and more of these, they'll be able to make it much more accessible to to the general public. Uh initially, I think when they launched like the helicopter service, uh people thought of it as like, "Oh, yeah, that's for rich people to go like to the Hamptons or something like that." And I think it probably started that way, but now if you look at the price that the Blade helicopter service is, it's only $195 to go from Manhattan to the airport, which is way less than probably a lot of people would imagine to to take a helicopter ride.
And I think the the goal when the when this EVTOL air taxi market uh really takes off, it's going to be similar to to bring to get as many of these flights going as possible, thereby bring down the price and make it more affordable for for a lot of people. That's it for Fortune Daily. I'm Aly Tostin. I'll see you tomorrow.
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