저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 주식시장이 2009년 이후 장기 상승해 과열·과평가 우려가 있으며 큰 조정이 올 가능성을 언급. 미국 부채(공식 36조달러, 부외부채 포함 약 136조달러)와 인플레이션, 금리 상승, 통화 남발이 누적되고 있다고 경고. 달러는 안전자산으로 보유 중이나 대안 통화가 없다고 밝힘. 금·은은 보유 중이며 은을 더 선호하고 구리도 언급. 장기적으로 중국 중심 경제로 이동 중이라고 봄.
다듬은 글
all the problems. There's nothing to worry about anymore. I, for one, don't believe Washington. The stock market has gone up steadily since 2009. That's never happened before in American history. We nearly always had have had a big bare market sooner than that. I would suspect that we're going to have another unpleasantness in the market fairly soon.
The main thing is stocks have gone up so long without a big problem and that leads to overvaluation. That leads to lots of enthusiasm. I have not started selling short yet. I haven't seen wild exuberance yet, but I hope I'm smart enough to start selling short if and when the time comes. Well, I guess people are smarter than I am.
They sold short already. What happens is in all markets, it goes up for a while. Confidence build up and new people come in. Old people come back because they get confidence again. Things have been great for a while. And people say, "Well, okay, it's different now. Everything is okay." And when everything is okay and everybody's happy, start getting work.
That's the point I'm making that so far, I don't see a lot of people panicking and selling their houses, you know, and moving to another country. People are still confident. When people start using the word different and you don't have to worry because it's different now, that's when you really get worried.
Yes. I mean, the American economy and the world economy has done pretty well for a while. without major problems. I haven't seen any wild hysteria in the markets yet. I haven't seen too many excesses on the upside yet. So that's why I'm sitting and watching. Well, I mean, Mr. Trump has been around before, at least in Washington.
So, we know something about him. The main thing that I think I know is that Mr. Trump has no clue. He changes his mind every day depending on what he sees on television. You know, when Margaret Thatcher or somebody like that's in charge, you more or less know what's going to happen because they have an underlying basic philosophy.
I don't think Mr. Trump has an underlying basic philosophy except that whatever he needs to do, he will do. So that makes it a little more difficult for me anyway to figure out what's going to happen. If you can read Mr. Trump's, even if he could read his mind, which he cannot, he has no idea what he will do.
I own a lot of US dollars, not because it's a sound currency, but because I see some turmoil coming down the road, and in times like that, people look for a safe haven. History says that people think the dollar is a safe haven. It's not, but people think it is. So, I own US dollars. I hope when the time comes, I'm smart enough to sell my dollars.
Now, what you need to do is say to me, okay, when you sell your dollars, where are you going to put your money? And my answer to you is for one of the few times in my life I don't know where to put my money. I don't see a competing currency for the US dollar yet and I'm trying to find it. If you know, don't announce it out loud.
Please send me a private email. Well, I own silver. I own gold. I think I bought some more silver yesterday. I hope I'm smart enough to buy more of them if they go down. But I don't see at this stage of history to sell all my assets and put it into gold and silver. Those days may come, but I don't see them yet.
Yes, maybe bonds, but I don't want to own bonds. Inflation's going to come back and bonds will go down a lot. I repeat, I am looking and I don't know yet. Driving gigantic money printing all over the world in the last few months, years, and that has continued. Yes, they've cut back the money printing in some places temporarily, but I read the same newspapers you do.
I see that people all over the world continue to print a lot of money. And historically that always eventually leads to more inflation. And if you look at the debt situation in the US, it is really startling. It's more than startling. It's frightening. I don't know how the debt could possibly have gotten so high.
And it continues to go higher. Nobody seems to notice. Nobody seems to care. So the debt situation is part and parcel of this problem. And it's getting worse. And it certainly never happened in history. When you say 36 trillion, that's what's recorded. That's the own balance sheet. But there's a gigantic amount of offbalance sheet debt.
I mean, over a 100red trillion. I mean, the numbers just cannot be comprehended. First of all, Washington doesn't even count them. They report the 36 trillion or whatever the number is, but they don't report the 136 trillion with all the off balance sheet numbers. Well, nobody has a chance to succeed.
Whoever you come up with is going to have problems dealing with the US debt situation. And this is not talking about Scott because no country has ever had a situation like this. And I don't know what's going to happen. You know, 100 years ago, it was Britain and people said, "Oh, don't worry. The British pound is the gold standard for currencies." Believe it or not, 50 years later, 1976, Britain was bankrupt, bailed out by the IMF.
It has happened before in history often and it's going to happen again. I don't like saying it, but I can see what's coming. Most people in the evening news don't know about the debt, but there will come a time when everybody will know about it. Oh my gosh. And that's called a serious bare market. Well, they say they are, and they say they have.
They say they've done some already, but I've seen this movie before. This is not the first time that a new administration has come in and said, "Okay, we're going to solve the problem." Pretty soon people start saying, "Wait a minute. This is too much pain. This is a serious serious problem. We cannot go that far and they back off and the situation gets worse." If they're really serious and they cut spending that dramatically, it's going to be a huge bare market.
But that's why I don't think it will last because when people start feeling a lot of pain, they start screaming and complaining and beating on the walls and that's when people change their mind. We've seen this before in history. Sometimes the small wars turn into bigger wars. But there are several conflicts going on in the world right now.
They don't make the evening news normally, but they're getting bigger and that will lead to even more of a bare market if and when we have a serious bare market. Of course, higher interest rates, inflation, debt, all of these things are adding up. Now, you could say this has happened before. It certainly has, but I'm afraid that now it's to the point where it has it's so high and such a big problem, it's going to have more of a dramatic effect on all of us in the next year or two.
Whenever people get worried or confused, they buy gold or silver. And that's happening again. This has been going on for a few thousand years. And gold and silver have always had an attraction to people throughout history. Silver is not on everybody's mind the way gold is. I mean, if you turn on the TV, you open the newspaper, first thing you read about is gold because that's historically traditionally the safe haven.
As far as I can see, that's the only reason. Now, both aren't going up, but certain silver certainly moved up. It hasn't moved up as much as gold. And if I were going to buy one today, I'd buy more silver, but I will buy more of both before this is over. Well, as far as I can see, it's just that people need hard assets to protect themselves.
real assets, whatever they are. And copper is one of those. It's very liquid. It has many uses around the world, and people are trying to protect themselves. Maybe there's another reason. Maybe it's deeper, but it's certainly part of it. Especially copper in China's case. And if they start pumping money to revive things, it's going to have an effect on lots of assets, including copper.
As far as I can see, China is going to be the most important country in the 21st century. It already is in some sectors. Yes, this has happened often in history. 100 years ago it was Britain and then it became the US. Unfortunately for us, I think it's now changing again and the world is now moving to a Chinese ccentric economy.
If we were sitting here in 1954, we would have looked at ahead and said Britain is coming to the end and it was. There's no question. We can look back and know that Britain wants at the end of the
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