저자: JensenHuang/Kelly등CNBC출연자 · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아 CES 기조연설 이후 베라 루빈(Vera Rubin)이 full production 단계이며 2H 출하 예정이라는 점이 강조됨. 에이전틱 AI와 피지컬 AI(로보틱스·자율주행)가 성장 동력으로 제시되고, 주가는 최근 횡보했으나 PER 낮고 2026년 실적 호조가 기대된다는 낙관론. 유튜버 진행자는 엔비디아 보유 및 2026년 상승 전망, 아이언(Iron) 장기 강세, 실적 발표 전후 긍정 셋업을 주장함.
다듬은 글
Nvidia is out ahead of the entire industry leading a lot of the conversation about AI. Jensen Wong, you mentioned uh some of those comments about Vera Rubin, their upcoming platform really making the case that uh with Vera Rubin, they're staying ahead of themselves much less everybody else. And these AI factories, that's how he likes to put what's being built with Nvidia's technology.
There's such demand for them that more power, more performance is actually going to go to great use. Take a listen. You have to use the factory for three things, three fundamental things. The first thing is to train your next frontier model so that you could build the best AI get to market first. So you want to train it as fast as you can.
Comparing Blackwell to Reuben, Reuben is a 4x leap. And so that 4x jump, you could either do something in four months or do it in one month. So it's a very big difference. You could either do something with four times as many black wells or 1/4 as many. Save a ton of money. Meanwhile, Lisa Sue at AMD arguing that all of that AI demand is so staggering that by 2030, the world's going to add 4 billion more AI users.
and that AMD will benefit. Listen, when we look at, you know, just the demand environment that we've seen just over the last couple of years, you know, just today, you know, we have like a 100 zoflops of compute, which sounds like a lot. It's a 100 times increase over the last, you know, four or five years.
Now, we're projecting forward and we're seeing um a demand environment where you're going to have, you know, you're going to go from a billion active users in AI today to over five billion active users over the next 5 years. And so you need a lot more compute. So Kelly, the argument here in a way from both is that the entire technology stack is being remade right on down to the software, how people are getting things done, how people are building things, and that these companies, they're arguing their companies are going to benefit from that rebuild based on how they position themselves with their technology.
So I got into town yesterday in time for Jensen's keynote. They did a financial analyst Q&A as well and I think the biggest thing incrementally coming out of the keynote obviously was the details he provided on Ruben. Um he said it's in full production which does suggest that they're on track should be well on track for a second half a launch and ramp and frankly just given some of the metrics he gave it it looks like a monster right so this may be part of the reason that AMD is is more incrementally weaker today relative to Nvidia may maybe partially because of that but um I thought that was was fantastic you know there's been worry on and off you know as as you tend to get with Nvidia product delays and everything like that it looks like everything at this point is is pretty It's smooth sailing and you like I said the the specs that they laid out on Reuben which I I wasn't expecting them to deliver at CES um it looks looks really really good I think.
So twofold on that CC a lot of people were thinking for 2026 maybe you rotate out of an Nvidia but it they they seem to be coming out with a full you know kind of reason not to and then but you think that their ability to outline some of those uh metrics is why AMD might be underperforming today. It it may be there.
I think there's also incremental worries on PCs. You know, you talked about some of the memory names. I mean, memory prices have been skyrocketing and there's some general worries in the consumer electronic space, um, items that use memory, PCs and smartphones and and what have you, that there could be weakness there.
And I don't know that we saw a ton of new stuff like come out on the PC side that would give people more comfort on that. So, I think with AMD, it's probably a combination of the two of those of of of those things. as as it as it relates to Nvidia though. I mean, you're right like the stock has kind of stagnated for for a few months.
There's there's been, you know, you know, GPU versus TPU and OpenAI versus Google and all these kind of worries, but at the same time, not I mean, there there's there's clearly an upward bias, I think, to Nvidia numbers. Um, the the the specs that they're putting out, the timing of the the product runs, I think this 2026 is going to be a a very good year for them.
And the stock is is quite inexpensive given the growth trajectory. It's I don't know where it's trading now. Probably low to mid 20 times forward earnings. It's by far the cheapest of the any of any of the AI names and and I mean it's their game to lose. I mean it's it's their space. They're the clear winner at this point.
And so yeah, I'm I'm thinking this is this year is probably looking pretty good for them because you're the Nvidia shareholder of course and the reviews seem to be pretty good about Jensen Wong's keynote yesterday. The focus on the new chip faster chips, the focus on robotics. What was your takeaway?
I mean, he he says these things, you know, very consistently and he delivers. I always I always say, you know, Jen Jensen is the ultimate showman, but he delivers the goods. And so, I think that's why this company um continues to be in pole position. Listen, there's lots of other players, you know, look at not in chips, but look at SanDisk or Micron are just are are crushing it.
And so, I think as this AI buildout continues, there's going to be lots of winners. Nvidia will be one of them. But I do think it's interesting because Nvidia is still one of the cheaper names. The market is still saying, "We don't want your stock over $200." And so, you remember, Scott, the stock couldn't get over 150 almost a year.
It sat there and then it broke out finally. And I feel like we're in this scenario where this year and late last year it cannot get over and stay over 200. So, we'll see. But the company continues to get stronger and more durable. As you know, they're going to they're going to crush numbers every single quarter this year.
I I do think as we get back to Nvidia and where they continue to be involved in places or part of infrastructure deals or getting involved in things that include, you know, driverless um you know, automation. These are things that for core investors, you you start to wonder whether uh are are we really reaching to find more reasons to want to own Nvidia.
But um I I I do think that the move in a number of these names is encouraging and that the broadening we're expecting is something that continues. I also thought the autonomous driving talk, all the talk about the physical AI, the robots, all those things are incremental to the NVIDIA story. So why so much emphasis in the CES address on that?
To your point, sounded like an Elon Musk move almost a little bit like, hey, look out here. We've got this also. Um, but in terms of the response, I mean, that's because all these guys are increasing capacity. All they're are building out, including SKH Heinix and Samsung. I mean, it's not just the US players here.
It's a global market for memory. I'm glad D. Yes. And let's go back to Taiwan Semi for a second because they clearly win all of this without question. But think about this for a second. Warren Berkshire Hathaway got into Taiwan Semi I think the fall of 2022ish around October, November. They exited in the spring of 23 on what concerns?
Geopolitical concerns. Now obviously the concerns are still there, but that was the wrong thing to do at the time. But doesn't mean they've necessarily gone away. So as important as Taiwan semi is, god forbid something were to happen between China and Taiwan, this whole thing starts to unravel very quickly.
The second best performed Magnificent 7 last year and the only other member to outperform the SP500 was Nvidia, which rallied 39% even as the stock mostly traded sideways for the final few months of the year. This was a big step down from Nvidia's 200% plus gain in 2023 and the over 100% gain it posted in 2024.
Despite being the largest company in the world, Nvidia somehow still feels underappreciated to me. All four of the company's earnings reports last year were excellent, even if the magnitude of Nvidia's earnings beats have shrunk versus the last couple years simply because Wall Street's no longer underestimating this company like it used to.
That's where a lot of big performance boosts came from. At the same time, Nvidia remains firmly at the center of the AI ecosystem with the best chips that money can buy and a software mode that makes it very hard for other semiconductor players, including Google, including AMD, to compete. Today, Nvidia stock struggled again.
It finished down 88 cents after CEO Jensen Wong gave what I thought was spectacular keynote address at last night's CES uh that's the old C consumer electronic show where he said the demand remains extraordinarily high and his next generation veer ruben chips are ahead of schedule. It's all on yes YouTube.
These things have entered full production with shipments scheduled to start in the second half of the year. Jensen also devoted lots of time last night to discussing physical AI, think robots, think self-driving cars, which is a market that's rapidly growing. So yes, I still like Nvidia very much entering 2026.
Own it, don't trade it. And that is the way we handle it for uh of course for the Chabatross. Plus, as the calendar flips to the new year, the stock doesn't look particularly expensive at all. Uh Nvidia currently trades at less than 25 times this year's earnings estimates. Wall Street anticipate nearly 40% earnings growth.
That's a cheap stock. From the perspective of a growthoriented hedge fund manager, it's insanely cheap. And if the past few years are any guide, Nvidia will once again beat the estimates, maybe trouncing him, meaning the stock will look a lot cheaper in retrospect 12 months from now, as is often the case invid.
It's confusing if the stock couldn't rally in Jens's excellent keynote speech at CES yesterday. But like I said about Amazon last year, some stocks just don't react the way they should, and you need to have enough confidence in your own work to say that the market is wrong. Here's the bottom line. I think the two outperformers, the Magnificent 7 Alphabet and Nvidia, will keep winning in 2026.
I buy them both right here. All right, I hope you're all doing great today. Today, Nvidia CFO spoke at a fireside chat with JP Morgan. CFO Colette Crest told us that demand has increased since the $500 billion figure that Jensen shared on stage at GTC back in October. Colette also told us that the US government is working on licenses for Nvidia to ship the H200 to China.
Jensen indicated in an interview with Bloomberg today that they're seeing demand from companies in China, which he believes indirectly means that the Chinese government is likely to allow the sales to go through. Also today, Nvidia and Seammens announced they are expanding their partnership to build the industrial AI operating system.
Under this collaboration, the two companies are reinventing the entire industrial value chain. Everything from design and engineering to manufacturing, production operations, and supply chains. This fits right in with Nvidia's theme at this year's CES, which is physical AI bringing artificial intelligence into the real world.
I'll talk more about that in a moment. Yesterday, after Jensen delivered his CES keynote, he held a short Q&A session with analysts. And so, really quick, let me mention a few points that stuck out to me from that Q&A. Jensen was asked about the Grock deal and said that Grock's technology excels at extremely low latency inference which is going to be essential in the future when demand for low latency inference rises from AI powered devices.
So the massive low latency inference demand in the future from consumer devices appears to be the main reason why Nvidia did the deal with Grock. Jensen also told us that in the future Nvidia expects to become the world's largest company in storage processors similar to how they are currently the world's largest in networking.
Nvidia will establish a dominant position in storage processing like they already have with networking. That is a big deal. Jensen was asked about how tokens are growing at 5x and when a reaceleration or slowdown would occur. Jensen said that the 5x growth driver is reasoning and that the next reaceleration factor is agentic systems.
Token usage will surge. It could grow 50x. This is exactly what I've been telling you for months. . And Jensen is clearly confirming this. When asked about Gro's technology being integrated into Nvidia's product portfolio, Jensen said that the product portfolio will remain mostly centered on Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin, but some could take new forms specialized for extreme low latency.
This is in line with what I've been suggesting in recent videos, hypothesizing that we may see a new low latency inference focused variant of Reuben from Nvidia in the future following the Gro deal. Jensen seems to be hinting at that potentially happening in the future. Maybe there will be another variant of Reuben or maybe it will be a new type of accelerator altogether.
That remains to be seen. All right. Now, once again, I'm going to rapid fire multiple points that stood out to me from Jensen's CES keynote last night. In case you missed Monday night's video, we learned a lot of important details. First, Jensen made it very clear that Agentic systems are going to take off from here.
I've been saying in recent months that I expect . And I think 2026 will be the year we see agentic AI at scale go mainstream. Jensen also spoke about the importance of open- source models and directly confirmed something I've been saying over the past month. In December, Nvidia released the Nematron 3 family of open models.
I repeatedly made the point that this is why Nvidia stopped offering DGX cloud capacity to customers back in September and struck a deal to buy additional capacity from Core Weeave. Moving forward, Nvidia wants to be the leader in open source models. Jensen directly confirmed this on stage. Jensen told us that Nvidia has built up massive amounts of DGX capacity in order .
Jensen shared a lot of exciting details about Nvidia's physical AI business. First Jensen reiterated that Nvidia offers the full robotic stack equipped with three computers that make physical AI possible. DGX for training, RTX Pro for simulation and AGX Thor . Physical AI is a very broad industry and part of that industry is autonomous vehicles.
Jensen announced NVIDIA Alpamo the world's first thinking reasoning autonomous vehicle AI. Alamo is trained end to end. Not only does it receive sensor input and take action, it also reasons about what action it's about to take, tells you the reasons by which it came about that action and then of course the trajectory.
Nvidia started working on self-driving technology 8 years ago. Jensen announced that the first autonomous car from Nvidia is going to be on the road in Q1 in partnership with Mercedes-Benz. Jensen told us that the Mercedes-Benz CLA was just rated by Encap as the world's safest car. Jensen told us that Nvidia's vision is that someday every single car and every single truck will be autonomous.
The ecosystem of companies working with Nvidia on robo taxi and self-driving technology is growing rapidly. And Jensen expects this to be a giant business for Nvidia. This is going to be the first large-scale mainstream physical AI market. And Jensen believes that over the next 10 years, a very large percentage of the world's vehicles will be autonomous.
And this is only part of Nvidia's physical AI business. I'm telling you as I've been for months. Nvidia's physical AI business does not get enough attention. And I seriously think most analyst long-term estimates are too low given what's ahead. Ahead of Jensen's keynote, I made the point that I would be surprised if Jensen made any big announcements related to data center since CES is geared toward consumers, but that I would be happy to be wrong about that.
And now I am very happy to have been wrong about that because Jensen gave us an update on Ruben. Jensen told us that Vera Rubin is in full production right now. This is very important and this makes me very optimistic about Nvidia's earnings report and guidance in February. Think about this. Foxcon published their December revenue report and looking at this graphic, we can see that Foxcon's revenue jumped sharply starting in September.
That's when Blackwell Ultra started ramping in substantial volumes, and Foxcon had a very strong fourth quarter in the months following. This bodess very well for Nvidia's next earnings report in February. Now, couple that with the fact that Reuben is already in full production and on track to launch seamlessly this year.
Plus, we that should be coming online very soon in the early part of this year. All of this put together makes me very optimistic that we will get both a very strong earnings report and very strong guidance from Nvidia in February, even stronger than usual. And that makes me optimistic that we may see a very positive reaction to Nvidia's next earnings report.
Now, of course, if the stock rallies a lot ahead of the earnings report, then that decreases the likelihood of a positive reaction after the earnings report. But you get what I'm saying. Foxcon's revenue report indicates that Nvidia should report very strong earnings in February. Large- scale sovereign AI projects coming online very soon increases the likelihood that we will get very strong next quarter guidance.
And Vera Rubin being in full production means we are likely to get very as well. Putting all of it together, that is a very positive setup in my opinion. Very briefly, I'll mention that I'm very bullish on iron in 2026, and I'm optimistic about the year ahead. Last I looked, Iron had a very positive green day yesterday and then a notable red day today.
I wouldn't worry too much about the short-term volatility. company. There will be pullbacks along the way, and I view pullbacks in iron as opportunities to responsibly add to long-term positions at lower prices. At the time of recording, I'm not aware of any iron specific news, and I continue to be very bullish on Iron this year as the company starts to deliver on their AI cloud forecasts.
Again, ignore the short-term noise and focus on the long-term fundamentals of the company. Now, back to Nvidia. I'm glad that Nvidia is starting to really shine the spotlight on the company's physical AI business. As I've been saying for months, this part of Nvidia's business does not get enough attention today, but I think it will start to get a lot of attention throughout this year and in 2027.
Jensen is clearly telling us what is coming next. Physical AI stands to benefit massively as they have embedded themselves as the underlying infrastructure powering all of it.
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