저자: MayankJhanji · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 산업 거품은 기술이 아니라 금융 구조에서 생긴다는 주장. 미국 연금 자금이 Athene→버뮤다 재보험(16.6배 레버리지)→Apollo 부채펀드→Valor SPV(35억 달러 부채+엔비디아 19억 달러)를 거쳐 GPU 10만 개를 구입해 xAI에 리스하는 구조를 설명. 엔비디아는 칩 매출을 먼저 인식하고 AI 수요가 꺾이면 리스 칩이 헐값이 되어 손실은 미국 은퇴자에게 전가된다고 주장. 대형 AI 거품 붕괴 시 전 세계 시장에 파급을 경고하며 조기 이탈을 권고.
다듬은 글
This diagram explains beautifully the how the AI industry in US is has a is a massive bubble. Bubble not in terms of technological advancement, bubble in the way it is being financed. And this this example this this diagram is shared by a person whose name is Michael J. Burry. If you don't know him, you can do a basic Google search.
He's the same guy who predicted the 2005 subprime crisis. He's the same guy whom you have also seen the movie called as The Big Short. You can see it on the on Netflix. And how this man, you know, predicted the crisis 2 years in advance, took the reverse positions, paid the M2M for like 2 years, went in losses, but when subprime happened, he made a big fortune out of it.
So, Michael Burry has is a is a guy who has basically shared this and he explained here the how this massive AI bubble is getting created in US. Let's try to understand it how what happens here, you know. So, they So, the US retiree means the US pension fund and in very simple terms gives money to a company called as Athene.
Athene in in in return no promises a annuity. That means a pension amount. Let's say let's suppose gives as a 5% 6% as a pension amount. So, in the retiree thing that their money is going to save annuity. Athene moves this money to its own subsidiary in based on Bermuda. Bermuda is a small island near US where again there are different laws.
So, it transfer this liability to a reinsurance company called as Athene US. You know, Athene US but based but based on the Bermuda. The The laws also allows you to basically take the 16.6 time leverage on that amount. You know, see this this particular third third block. And this is classified as level three.
Level three means there is no market price for that. So, it it is a hundred and three billion dollar assets. This asset is then managed by a company called as Apollo. Apollo created, you know, its own company another I mean I mean structured a debt called as and it makes it a company to company called as Apollo Capital Solutions.
So, this Apollo Capital Solutions, you know, basically uses this Bermuda reinsurance funds along with the third party capital to structure 3.5 billion dollar debt, you know, on this. And you know, again obviously you know, through this whole thing it it gets some fees from various third party, you know, as it raises debt.
This whole money then goes into a special purpose vehicle called as called as Valor. This Valor is comprised of this 3.5 billion dollar debt and 1.9 billion dollar funding from Nvidia. Now, why from Nvidia? Because Valor will go and buys the Nvidia chips. Chips means the hardware chips, you know, which is being used for processing of, you know, no data and used extensively in AI.
It's really very simple. So, so if you just look at the this transaction, so you basically attempted to buy something from a company but you don't have much money. The same company which intends to sell you the product refund no funds you so that you can buy that product. So, Nvidia kind of one more arm called as Nvidia Private Equity reinvest 1.9 billion dollar into this particular Valor purpose vehicle and through this 5.5 5.4 billion dollars it goes ahead and purchase around 1 lakh GPUs.
Okay? Now what what is what are they going to do with the GPU because Valor is not an AI company. Valor then basically you know leases leases this to procedure leases this to XAI. XAI is what is XAI? XAI is basically again it's a let's say Elon Musk company which I get it now for example they are have a AI tool called as Grok.
So instead of the XAI going and purchasing it from Nvidia and paying a huge amount they decide to buy it on lease from the Valor. Now if you just understand this whole cycle so XAI needed deep processors you know to run their AI logics. Nvidia is the company which provides the chips or the processors.
Who is funding this? Who is fulfilling the objective of this particular you know these two companies who is funding this? USA Tire. And what cost? Fixed annuity. That means a simple interest or the badge you know on the investment. Because they presume it's a safe investment. Now since this is on lease, let's suppose tomorrow a new technology comes up or demand of AI you know gets moderation not even like I would say it is going down.
It goes into moderation. When it goes since going to moderation XAI may say okay, thank you very much. Please take out please take back your chips. I don't need it. It's it stops this leasing agreement because it's a lease agreement, right? I don't want now. Please go ahead. No, please take your chip chips.
[snorts] It returns the chips back to Valor. See, Nvidia has already sold. They got the money. The majority of the money plus they're going to be getting some lease. But at least in their books, they have shown the sales. They've shown the profit. So, their job is done. Whenever this happens, you know, they will show one time, you know, uh one time loss because of uh you know, that loss in the equity arm, not in my core sales.
And they'll market it one time loss and move on. Who is going to be destroyed? The US retiree. Because it's actually his money plus some third-party money which they basically they have Apple of has basically uh you know, got it from some other investors. So, the ambitions of the AI companies are being fulfilled by the US retirees.
You know, and this whole cycle is where, you know, this is how it I mean, this whole cycle is how is a massive bubble. By It's again a bubble because it's not just one transaction. These transactions are happening every now and then because there's an extreme competition between the AI companies like xAI, Anthropic.
You know the names, you know, I don't need to to to tell you the names. And in this competition, they need more processors, they need more GPUs, they need more chips. They can't fund it. They don't have They don't want to put put their money at risk. So, they are using this cycle to get this money from the pensioners and other unknowingly investors, you know.
And this is why, you know, I am saying that we should be really careful, you know, uh on, you know, how the So, because whenever this bubble could burst, for short term, definitely going to, you know, have we will every market in the world will get ripples. So, just just keep this thing in mind and you know, at the very first onset of the reversal
[snorts] and it's time to move out before the wave comes and crashes on your own shore. This is If you have any question on this, you are most welcome to ask. It's a little complex, but if you understand it, you know, calmly, you will be able to understand what I'm saying. As a summarization very quick summarization US retiree gives money to A-10.
A-10 moves the money to A-10 US. The insurance arm is out of Bermuda. Bermuda laws allows it to take a leverage of 16.6 times. This money then is given to Apollo. Apollo creates a a debt fund called as Apollo Capital Solutions here and, you know, along with this money by A-10 plus, you know, some third party, it creates a 3.5 billion dollar VCI which goes into a special purpose vehicle called as Velour, which will be CRA.
CRA goes and, you know, buys the chips from Nvidia, but since it can't pay them their money, some money is flown back to the VCI by Nvidia through its private equity arm. They go and buy chips, but, you know, XAI needs chips. Now, it since it can't buy that much, it takes from Velour at lease and from there it gets some rental.
It's the only thing I have to ensure this is rental, this lease or the rental amount which you're getting should be more than the annuity we are paying to the US retirees. So, they are getting good margin out of it plus the fees of fees that they charge that's their income. And tomorrow if technology changes, then and XAI say, "Okay, thank you very much.
I don't need your chips now." Then obviously, you know, that chips will be sold at penny, you know, in that time. Whose money will be lost? US retiree because they will show losses, losses, losses, losses, losses and in the end the in the loss will be passed on back to the US retirees. This is happening this with with no knowledge of US retirees that this is what is happening with their money.
So, this is the summarization of this whole diagram and the knowledge for you guys to see how the bubbles get formed in the in the global financial industry. That's it. Thank you very much. Have a good day.
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