“Only 2 Things to Win Big in Stocks” - Howard Marks | Investment

요약 보기

Howard Marks는 돈과 용기만 있으면 상승장에서 돈을 벌 수 있지만, 2007년처럼 위기에서는 신중함·보수성·리스크 관리가 필요하다고 강조한다. 현재는 '신중하게 전진'하는 균형 전략이 적절하며 자산가격이 극단적으로 높지도, 낮지도 않다고 본다. 저수익 환경에서의 여섯 가지 투자 대안을 제시하고 각 대안의 단점(특히 현금화 타이밍 리스크와 매니저 리스크)을 설명한다. 구체적 자산 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 제시하지 않는다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. If you wanted to make a lot of money, you only needed two things. Money to invest and the nerve to invest it. That's all you needed. You didn't need a lot of brains. You didn't need selectivity, caution, conservatism, select the discipline, patience, agility. All you needed was money and nerve. And if you had those things over the last 10 years, you've made a ton of money.

02. Does that mean that money and nerve is the formula for success in the investment business? No, because if you had money and nerve in April of '07, you lost a lot of money. You bore the full brunt or more of the global financial crisis. Maybe you got knocked out of business. That's when you needed caution, conservatism, risk control, patience, selectivity, and discipline.

03. So the point is there are different tools for different climates which is this money and nerve today caution and conservatism today and Oak's mantra over the last several years has been move forward but with caution I don't think that asset prices are so high I don't think the outlook is so bad that you should practice maximum defense and the return for being in ultra safe assets is unacceptably low for most of us.

04. But on the other hand, I don't think that prices are low enough or that the outlook is good enough to be practicing sheer aggression. I don't think it's there's any place for aggressiveness in today's market. So that's where we came up with this balance of move ahead but with caution. We're investing every day.

05. We're basically fully invested and trying to stay that way. but with a portfolio that is biased toward defense, not offense. Biased visav our norm. So, how should you invest in a low return world and I've come up with six possibilities. I put them up here and I'm not aware that there are any others.

06. Number one, invest as you always have and expect your historic returns. Well, that's actually a fake because nothing in my opinion offers the return that it historically has offered. So, that's a red herring. I just want to make sure I had your attention. The second one, invest as you always have and settle for today's low returns.

07. That's more like it. That's more realistic. That's more prudent. It's just not much fun and for many organizations it doesn't fit the business plan. The third is to reduce your risk to prepare for a market correction and accept still lower returns and that's even less fun. The fourth is to go all the way towards defense.

08. go to cash except they return closer to zero and wait for a better environment to put that cash to work. That's very challenging because you know going to cash is an extreme action for an active investor. And not only do you have to be right, but you have to be right quick. Because if it takes you two years to be right, you'll you'll have dug a hole that you if the market keeps going up in those two years and you were wrong to go to cash, you will have dug a hole so deep you may never get out of it.

09. And by the way, you may not have a shovel anymore because you may have you may have lost your job. So that's number four. Then there's number five, which is to do the opposite. To take on more risk in the low return world in order to try to get the returns that you used to get with safety that has obvious merits and demerits.

10. And number six is to put more into what you would call special niches and special people. that is bet more on alternatives non-market private and hopefully skilled managers. Now the important thing is that none of these alternatives is completely satisfactory. Everyone has a downside including number six because you go into special asset classes with hope what you believe is are special managers and you expose yourself to manager risk.

11. the risk that you thought you were finding somebody with alpha, but he or she actually turns out to have negative alpha and underperforms.