저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: Bakkt는 ICE가 만든 기관급 비트코인 플랫폼으로, 기관 자금 유입과 결제 확대를 목표로 하지만 가격 방향에 대한 명확한 예측은 없고 '소문에 사고 사실에 파는' 패턴 가능성을 언급한다. Bakkt 개요: ICE(뉴욕증권거래소 모회사)가 설립, 스타벅스·마이크로소프트 등이 파트너. 목표는 기관투자자 진입, 소비자 결제를 신용카드에서 비트코인으로 전환, 비트코인을 전통 자산 수준으로 보호. 로드맵: 1단계는 기관 투자자 유치를 위한 일일 선물(next-day bitcoin, 실물 인도형) 시장, 2단계는 소매 결제 및 가맹점 확대. ICE 선물 거래는 CME·CBOE의 현금결제 방식과 달리 실물 결제, 1계약=1BTC, CFTC 승인 대기 중. 송금 효율: 기존 해외송금 2일 소요·수수료 대비 Bakkt 내부 저장계좌 간 이동은 빠르고 저렴하다고 주장. 장점: 기관 거래량으로 변동성 완화 가능, 파생상품을 통한 헤지로 패닉셀 감소, 가맹점 수용 확대 기대. 우려: 하드포크 시 보관 자산 문제, 파생·ETF 등으로 실제 공급보다 많은 수요 창출 가능성, '자기 키가 아니면 자기 비트코인이 아니다' 원칙 훼손, 상대방(카운터파티) 리스크. 단기 전망: 선물 도입 발표 시 급등 후 실제 거래 시작 때 하락했던 과거 사례(2017 말 선물, ETF 기대감)를 언급하며 이번에도 유사할 수 있으나 확실치 않다고 함. 스타벅스가 받은 BTC를 즉시 매도할 경우 단기 매도 압력 가능성 제기, 중장기로는 가격 안정 기대. 결론적으로 발언자는 가격 방향을 단정하지 않았으며 '두고 봐야 한다'는 입장.
다듬은 글
You may have heard about Bakkt in recent weeks, as there has been a lot of buzz around it in the crypto world . This is due to institutional investors' access to Bitcoin. So if you are interested in this topic and want to learn what it is and how it affects you as an ordinary investor , keep watching.
Hello everyone , I'm Kevin from Bitcoin for Beginners, and what better time to learn than during this prolonged bear market when you can take the time to learn the basics of both the financial and technical side of cryptocurrencies? In my “Kevin Talks Crypto” series, I dedicate time to researching topics that interest me and share my findings with you .
If you could quickly support me by clicking the like button and subscribing below, I would be very grateful. So, let's learn about Bakkt. If you're wondering what Bakkt is, it's a play on words that alludes to "backed"—assets backed by securities. They call themselves a global regulated ecosystem for digital assets.
It was created by ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. ICE is the second largest owner of financial exchanges in the world by revenue. They are the world leader in futures for agricultural commodities such as cotton, sugar, and coffee. Back in 2015, they acquired a minority stake in Coinbase, so they are big believers in crypto.
In addition, ICE Futures Europe is the dominant global market for Brent crude oil, which serves as a global price benchmark. All of this suggests that this is a very large financial institution, and its creation of a new crypto company should be taken seriously. Some of the most impressive things about Bakkt are its famous partners.
The first of them is Starbucks Coffee. Essentially, they will allow you to buy coffee with Bitcoin. This was previously considered a huge barrier to mass adoption, so this should help a lot. They are going to create practical, reliable, and regulated apps for consumers to use at Starbucks. However, the bitcoins they receive will be automatically converted into fiat.
More on this a little later. Another notable partner is Microsoft, and they are going to bring their Azure cloud business , which has many customers, into this Bitcoin infrastructure and ecosystem. They will handle back- office tasks, from invoice processing to e- commerce, integrating Bitcoin into this process.
The idea is that this will create a cycle of adoption: the more merchants join, the more users there will be , which in turn will encourage other merchants to join the ecosystem, and so on. So, what are Bakkt's goals? The CEO on the left says, “Bakkt is designed as a scalable platform for institutions, merchants, and consumers to participate in the digital asset space by improving efficiency, security, and utility.” First , their goal is to shift consumer retail payments from credit cards to the use of, for example, bitcoin applications.
Second, they want to provide Bitcoin with the same protection as other assets, such as stocks, bonds, or commodities that we typically trade in traditional markets. Finally, they want to open the door to significant amounts of institutional capital by creating an infrastructure that will support them and provide the necessary guarantees.
So what current problems is Bakkt trying to solve? First of all, there is a lack of trust in Bitcoin from institutions, merchants, and regulators. Why is that , you ask? First, there is a lack of regulated official exchanges for trading and a secure, regulated mechanism for storing these digital currencies on a large scale.
In addition, in the eyes of regulators, Bitcoin is still largely an object of speculation. It still lacks distributed liquidity across all existing exchanges. And yet, in 10 years there have already been four "bear" markets. This indicates a crisis of confidence, because in other markets such declines are much less frequent, and market cycles do not change so quickly.
Second, millennials don't trust traditional financial institutions , right? Bakkt wants to solve this problem by offering services related to an asset they trust, Bitcoin. However, the situation is quite interesting, because Bitcoin was supposed to be decentralized, without fees and central institutions like Bakkt, right?
However, a powerful central infrastructure, paradoxically, is necessary for mass implementation. So, the main task is to get institutions, regulators, consumers, and merchants to accept Bitcoin. Bakkt's roadmap consists of two phases. The first stage is to attract institutional investors by improving the pricing mechanism and increasing the accessibility of Bitcoin to them.
The first way they're going to do this is by creating a daily futures market, and I'll talk about that in more detail on the next slide. The second phase is to improve the way consumers pay in retail stores , shopping malls, online, etc. This is where implementation by vendors like Starbucks and Microsoft, who are partners, comes into play.
Part of the second phase includes creating a financial ecosystem that can support all of this, as well as increasing the number of merchants by offering simpler payment solutions and secure, regulated storage for their bitcoins. So the daily futures market for this service, Bakkt, is what they call next- day bitcoin, and it's, quote, " physically delivered bitcoin" in the regulated digital asset storage facility ICE.
You can trade these futures on the ICE electronic trading platform, similar to what they offer for the New York Stock Exchange and other organizations. This will be real Bitcoin used for settlement, instead of cash settlements like on the other two major Bitcoin futures markets you may have heard of before: CME and CBOE.
It will also be one contract per one bitcoin, is awaiting CFTC approval, and will have a separate guarantee fund funded by Bakkt. So, the main idea is that the futures market will create the ability to hedge bets and deliver bitcoins in a safe and institutionally secure way. This will be the first step in creating the infrastructure needed to make institutional investors feel safe entering this space.
Another thing they are going to do is build an ecosystem around Bitcoin. They will create a high-speed architecture for Bitcoin, and settlements between accounts on the ICE exchange will take place on the ICE registry, which is a kind of off-chain, and not on the Bitcoin blockchain. Think of it as the institutional version of the Lightning Network.
Let's look at an example of how this would work if an American company tried to buy a product in Japan . The old way to do this is to transfer US dollars, and a broker or dealer exchanges them for Japanese yen. This is sent to the buyer's bank, waits 2 days for the transfer, then finally hits the seller's bank account, and fees and interest are deducted from that amount.
The new way with Bakkt is extremely simple. Funds simply move from the buyer's storage account to the seller's storage account, quickly and with low fees. So, Bakkt also stated that Bitcoin will greatly simplify the movement of money in the world, and that it has the potential to become the first global currency .
Quite bold statements, let's hope they come true. So let's look at some of the advantages and disadvantages of Bakkt. Let's start with the advantages. First, it would potentially generate huge trading volumes from institutions, which could smooth out the volatility and price swings that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are known for.
Additionally, there will be less panic selling as derivatives will now be available and investors will be able to hedge their risks rather than panic selling assets to preserve their capital. There is also hope that more merchants will accept Bitcoin if prices become more stable and the ability to hedge cash flows becomes a reality—because that’s important, right?
You don't want to get Bitcoin, after which it will drop sharply in price, and you won't be able to pay your bills. But with these derivatives, you have the ability to hedge risks using futures to somewhat lock in the prices at which you receive your bitcoins. So, with all this infrastructure and new changes, the hope is that it will increase the trust and reputation of Bitcoin for everyone in the ecosystem, and that wider adoption and demand will help drive the price higher.
Of course, there are also some concerns about Bakkt and their approach. First, these are forks, because if Bitcoin splits, what will happen to those Bitcoins stored on the Bakkt exchange? They control it, not you. The second is the inflation of the supply of Bitcoin, because if you think about it, Wall Street can now create demand for Bitcoin literally out of thin air.
They do this through leverage and derivatives, as well as shorts, which results in more ETF shares on the books than Bitcoin itself. This could lead to the elimination of the Bitcoin shortage, at least to some extent. This also poses a huge problem for the principle of “not your keys, not your bitcoins” and defeats the idea of censorship resistance and decentralization, as everything is stored within the Bakkt infrastructure.
There is also counterparty risk. I don't want to go into detail, but the point is that for instruments such as ETFs or other financial products, the price of the underlying asset can increase, while the instrument itself can go bankrupt. And also, the very concept and the reason people fell in love with Bitcoin in the first place is to move away from banks and financial institutions, and now we're going back to them with Bakkt.
So, how will this affect the price? It is possible that this is another case of buying on rumors and selling on facts. Remember when Bitcoin futures appeared? When it was first announced, the price skyrocketed. This was in November and December last year. When trading began, the price fell, and now we are in a bear market.
Similarly, a few months ago, when the hype around ETFs was at its peak, the price went up a lot, and when the SEC delayed or rejected the applications, disappointment set in and the price fell, oh, back down. So we don't know if this will happen with Bakkt as they start announcing more and more of their products?
Maybe, maybe not. I guess we'll see. Finally, a few more cons, and the first is what I mentioned earlier: when Starbucks receives bitcoins for coffee, they will immediately sell them. So, this could mean that buying coffee at Starbucks will negatively impact the price of Bitcoin. This could become more common in the medium term, with merchants doing the same thing as Starbucks and immediately exchanging Bitcoin for cash, even if you hold Bitcoin and spend it on, say, coffee.
However, there is hope that in the long term, as more companies start accepting Bitcoin, prices will stabilize, the entire Bitcoin ecosystem will grow, and sellers will decide to hold Bitcoin for spending rather than selling it immediately . So, thank you all. I hope you learned a lot about Bakkt and why it is so exciting, or at least interesting in terms of institutional investors' next step into the world of Bitcoin.
If you could support me again by clicking the like button and subscribing below if you haven't already , I would be very grateful. I wish you a wonderful rest of the day. Kevin was with you , see you next time.
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