저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
개인은 자신의 생활 속 강점(익숙한 산업·제품)을 활용해 기업을 이해한 뒤 투자해야 한다. 기업 이익이 장기적으로 주가를 결정하며, 금리·경기 등 거시 변수는 예측이 불가능하므로 신경 쓸 필요가 없다. 이해하지 못하는 회사는 사지 말아야 하며, 1992년 종목 추적 사례와 중학생 투자 실험(주가 2년간 69% 상승, 시장 20%)을 근거로 든다. 투자클럽 62%가 시장을 이겼다는 점도 제시한다.
다듬은 글
People don't understand their natural advantages and they don't use them. That's bad number one. But worse number two, if you don't think you're a good ice skater or if you're convinced you're not a good chist, you're not going out and try it. But people are buying stocks anyway. They're not discouraged.
They just think it's a gamble. Yeah. We began with Peter Lynch. Time magazine has called him America's number one money manager. During the 13 years he headed the Fidelity Mellan Fund. It was a top ranked general equity mutual fund. His new book, Beating the Street, offers advice on picking stocks and maximizing profits.
And he's here to talk to us about a lot of things. Peter, welcome to the broadcast. You wrote a book called One Up on Wall Street. And I think that's one of the bestselling books ever about Wall Street. If I'm not correct, you can correct me. And so, so why then did you write another book? Okay. Okay.
I think the reason I wrote it is the first I tried to explain to people their great advantages, their edges they have and that they should get involved in stocks and they should do it on the right basis. This was on the first book, right? Yeah. And obviously I didn't make a great impression because the percent of people's assets involved in stocks has gone down.
In 1960 people had 40% of their financial assets including their house in stocks and mutual funds. In 80 that was down to 25%. It's now down to 17%. And why do you think that is? Well, I think people in the decade of the 80s was the best decade this century for stocks. I think people managed to lose money in the 80s doing it themselves because their methods were so flawed.
So I I really feel as though I wanted people to understand. I don't want anybody to buy a stock. I'm saying if you're going to buy a stock, you should do certain things. If you're not willing to do these things, you should leave your money in the bank. Your philosophy is is simple and I'm remembering this from the previous book.
I think we're now talking about the previous book. Correct. Your philosophy was if you find something that you identify with. I remember there was a story of your wife and her hose. Your wife kept saying these legs and panic. Your wife said, "These are the greatest things I've ever seen." Right? And when your wife said that, you knew that this was a product that was better.
You used to stay at Laquenta Motel and the service was better, whatever was better. And the price was good, too. And you said, "This is a place that I can determine. I, Peter Lynch, can tell that this is a good product." Right? If these people making a good product, then their earnings are going to go up.
Therefore, the stock's going to go up. And I that's the kind of decision-m process you ought to go through. Right. Do I have it? You've got it exactly right. Well, I do I don't think people understand there's a 100% correlation with what happens to a company's earnings over several years and what happens to the stock.
If the company McDonald's has done very well as a company, right, the stock has done very well. People worry about too much money supply, what's happened to the price of oil, whe who's the president, who's being nominated for the Supreme Court, the ozone layer, has nothing to do. McDonald's earnings go up the next 10 years, the stock will go up.
Yeah. But what they will say to you, Peter, is that as you know, and why am I telling you this? But they it's fun to tell you this. They're telling you that these other things influence the amount of earnings of a particular company. If we're in a recession, people are not going to spend as much money on going to the movies or whatever they do.
And and therefore, you got to pay attention to these other things because they impact on earnings. They are very important, but you have no idea of knowing what they're going to do. Alan Greenspan's the head of the Federal Reserve. He cannot predict interest rates. Yes, he'd be the first to tell. He can influence them, but he can't predict them.
He cannot predict what long-term interest rates are going to be one year from now, two years from now, three years from now. He's even surprised how low they are now, right? So, how am I supposed to predict interest rates? How am I supposed to predict the economy? You certainly remember the recession of 82.
1982, we had a 20% prime rate, 14% unemployment, 12% inflation. I don't remember anybody telling me in 1980 or 81 that was going to happen. All of a sudden, we had the worst recession since the depression. I didn't read about in the paper. So, it's crazy to think about these things. Here's a quote from you.
I own Dunkin Donuts. When you own Dunkin Donuts, you don't have to worry about Korean imports. You don't have to worry about M2 or M3. These are money supply figures, aren't they? And and what's happening to the money supply? This is the way you make money. If you don't understand what the company does, you should not be in it.
If you could predict the stock market, you could predict the economy. You could predict interest rates. If you go buy the wrong stocks, you're going to lose half your money anyway, right? I'm saying people have natural advantages. Yeah. Let's say what you do for a living is you're involved in the restaurant industry,
right? You supply paper products. You supply kitchen equipment. You help build restaurants. You saw McDonald's, you saw Chi-Chi, you saw Chili's. You saw Cracker Barrel. You saw Dunkin Donuts, Kentucky Fried Chicken, Taco Bell. These are all success stories. These were 40 40fold. You made 40 to 50 times your money.
You don't need to make that kind of money many times your life, right? No. That's all you had to do was follow the restaurant industry. People are in industries. They're in the publishing industry. They're in the chemical industry, the paper. Why don't they just stay with that industry? You only need a few stocks a decade.
How many good stocks you need a lifetime? Instead of people, they're in the restaurant industry. They're buying biotechnology stocks. The people in the chemical industry know nothing about it. The people in the chemical industry are buying oil stocks. It's absolutely absurd. People don't understand their natural advantages and they don't use them.
So that's that's bad number one. But worse number two, if you don't think you're a good ice skater or if you're convinced you're not a good chist, you're not going out and try it. But people are buying stocks anyway. They're not discouraged. They just think it's a gamble. Yeah. So therefore, they go forward and they they bet on one stock for a week and a half and it goes up and they they make $2 on it, then they sell it and they buy something else.
When 3 years is over, all they've done is generate a lot of commissions. They've probably lost money. That's a mistake. So your advice is what? If you don't understand a company, if you can't explain it to a 10-year-old in 2 minutes or less, yes, don't own it. Because when it goes down, let's say the stock goes down two,
you won't understand what's going on. What do you do? Do you buy more? Do you do you do you flip a coin? Chances are your broker doesn't either. You they he he or she certainly doesn't know about it. I mean who knows what advance what all these things are at auto back planes and mega flops. Who knows what all these
buy what you know. Buy in your industry. Buy what you know. Buy local companies. Yeah. So so suppose you you don't have an industry. I mean you know you don't really what you buy local companies companies in your own industry. 10 years after Walmart went public 10 years after Walmart 10 years after it went public.
It's a 25-y year old company now. You could have bought the stock and made 50 times your money on it. 50 times. This if you bought it 10 years after after it was public already, it already gone up fivefold. So you could have made 250 fold. But I'm saying let's say you were in a town, they came into it and they said, "Boy, these prices are great.
They're doing terrific. I like the bargains." You checked it out. You spent a little bit of work on it. I mean, people are very careful. They when they buy a dishwasher, they do some research. They'll put $10,000 in some stock. They're here on a bus. So if you did a little bit of research, you say Walmart's only 10% of the country.
They're not even saturated there. Why can't they go to the rest of the country? So, is this this is more of the same? Is it what it is? It's more of the same. Plus, I show examples. It's it's a a touch more detailed. This actually shows me in action. I pick 21 stocks early in 1992. Some work, some don't.
I follow those companies. Some of the companies, the fundamentals deteriorate, some they improve. I watch those companies go through the year. I also explain the retailing industry. I try and make it very simple. And I talk about a wonderful example is a seventh grade class. Yeah. The teacher of that read my book and my first book that you were talking about.
You you and I did a show on that in Washington. You remember that show? This is a long time ago. She read the book and I said, "If you made it through fifth grade math, you can do it in the stock market." She says, "Okay." She started teaching it in seventh grade, seventh grade class. These kids had to study companies.
They had to look at their balance sheets to see if they're solvent. They picked stocks. These stocks were up 69% over two years when the market was up only 20. They picked stocks like Limited. They picked the Gap. They picked Walt. They understood these companies. They also picked IBM. I lost money in that too.
I mean, everybody makes mistakes. Everybody did. Yeah. But I'm saying this is this was this was a school St. Agnes school in Arlington, Mass. But in addition, in the decade of the 80s, there's 8,000 investment clubs. These are amateur sort of right average people just investing. These investment clubs, 62% of them of these clubs beat the market.
In the decade of the 80s, only 25% of professionals beat the market. Let me go back to one other subject. You after you're coming back to Fidelity, aren't you just aren't you going to do something? Well, when I when I finished this book, I've been working about one or two days a week, the last year and a half on this book.
Right now, I'm done with the book. I'm going to go back to maybe one day a week working with younger analysts, just listening to them, talking to them. I'm not telling them to buy zero, sell your own lifestyle. Not totally. I'm not going to run another fund. 13 years was plenty of running a fund. I'm just going to work with younger analysts.
Let them ask questions. I'll ask them questions. It's going to be a lot of fun. Now, do you still follow Do you manage any money for anybody other than yourself? No. No manage. I manage money with other people for some charities, right? But no, I don't manage anybody's accounts. You're not doing some mutual funds, pension funds, nothing.
I'm out cold turkey. No. All right. You cold turkey. Cold turkey. Now, are you happy you did this? I'm obviously I'm delighted. It's great. And you like your new life? Oh, it's fabulous. Yeah. Four or five years ago, you just said enough and I've been managing all this money. I'm going to do I'm going to quit.
I'm going to Yep. That's right. And what And you went to do what? Well, actually, I wanted to spend more time with my wife and my children, right? And it it was interesting situation because I loved my job. I adored my job and I and I liked outside activities. And when I when I was young, you know, I didn't wasn't involved in charity work until I was 30.
No activities. Younger children, you just read them a book and Goodn Night Moon and they fall asleep and it's all over. when they get older this there's more time involved. So I enjoyed the family. I was leaving for work at 6:00 in the morning. I was getting home at 7:00 at night, 6 days a week in Boston.
Yeah. Traveling 14 days a month. It was just too much. So I said I I said that's it. I can't take it. And fortunately I had made enough money to say I could give up the job. So I didn't have to give up with the family or the outside activities. And so what happened then? So you did what with your life?
Well, I cut back from about a 80 90 hour week to a 40 or 50 hour week. And I in the morning I make breakfastes and lunches for the kids and I do the spelling words and the Spanish words and Carolyn does the math and the science and I uh see Carol in the morning and off I go to a place. You have to go some my opinion you have to go somewhere to do something.
If you stay at home you wind up answering the telephone or watching cartoons. So I or falling asleep taking a nap. So she does the hard work and I go I go Fidel gave me an office and I have a secretary and I spend majority of the time working on charity things like inner city schools, inner city libraries, inner city housing, you know.
Having help people manage their money or have No, not at all. None of that. I'm some of the charities I'm on the investment committee of of some of the Museum of Fine Arts, the I'm involved in Mass General Hospital, Boston College, but United Way, but the all the extra things I added to were real hands-on actually being involved in charitable activities.
Comments 0