저자: Dylan · 외국인
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TLT 93~97 박스권에서 풋 매도·콜 매도로 프리미엄 수취하며 채널 트레이딩. CPI 근원 3.8% 등 인플레가 목표 2%보다 높아 연준 금리인하는 늦어질 것으로 전망, 미국 국가부채 이자부담(약 6600억달러)이 국방예산 수준으로 불어나 금리 장기 고착을 우려. 6월 첫 인하 확률 50% 미만으로 봄.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two stupid guys try Sox I'm Dylan and I'm Vinnie and TLT looks like has given us another chance to accumulate shares we're going to kind of look at what I've been doing in uh Michael bur's old trade and if it's time to accumulate which I don't know I have no idea I'm not telling you do anything guys STS all right so um full disclosure I have a lot of TLT um I had 450 shares but I'm playing around with the wheel strategy that we talked about earlier and going show you kind of exactly what I'm doing because it's not it's not actually a wheel strategy because I'm trying to make the puts I'm trying to get called which is not what you're trying to do in a wheel strategy so okay it's it's not it's not a true wheel strategy um here is the graph so if you look at this I am on operating between like a 97 and a 93 kind of range I I don't think we're going to go back in the 80s I think it's unlikely it's possible that's fine yeah if I get caught I'll just hold my shares here for a long ass time that's no problem um but kind of this this red if you can see it is 97 and can you see my mouse yeah I can okay cool and then this is like 92 50ish so we're kind of in that range approaching again um these are two that I did so I initially did this 93 just $110 on two contracts not that much what I realized is that I'm I'm trying to get caught so I don't I'm making I'm not even really trying to do covered calls I'm more trying to get caught at the bottom and sell in the 97 Range which did not work I will show you why um but I've already got a grand basically in a premium from these cuz was trying to get caught in this 95 I got assigned um if you just type in Fed rate fed interest rate just and there go to news this is this is the story right so yeah we were a little bit nervous of the news that came out but everyone seems to be sticking with the three Cuts okay potentially you're definitely seeing some it's been the thing uh of the last couple years I guess is to figure out the next move of the Federal Reserve has been or will be sorry um but this right here is a CME fed watch tool so this is looking at percentage based probabilities for various fed funds rates at at each meeting date so right now the CME watch tool is calling for the First Rate cut with 55% likelihood uh to occur at the June 12th meeting now this tool has been uh it's really about emotions of of the people that are you know trying of trading these options so it's been completely incorrect because I want to say at one point it was calling for a First Rate cut to be in March at the very minimum and I think it was September 2023 there was like a 30 or 40% chance in March which no yeah yeah and it no it's just not happening at this point just that it keeps getting pushed further and further out is what I'm trying to say there which is great if you're trying to do what I'm doing because it gives you more options to get premium ideally if I could have no rate Cuts this year that'd be great it's just not going to happen I well I'm not 100% certain I don't think I think we're going to get rate Cuts but actually it' be great if we don't um not for buying houses that's a different conversation so here's what actually happened basically the CPI increased 4% for the month uh 3.2% a year ago it was in line with expectations but the 12mth was .1% higher and then core CPI Rose .4% the month and was up 3.8% the year both were 0.1% higher than what they were thinking um there's a 2.3 increase in energy costs which helped boost but it's not really important the important thing is we were slightly under the expect sorry we were slightly higher on the expectation yeah and then this is kind of a cool chart so this shows the US Consumer Price Index month-over-month percent change so you kind of see 2020 and 2022 it was kind of gross kind of scary right rip Waring basically yeah this this last kind of half of this Gra graph you really see that over the course of six months mhm it it kind of goes up and down up and down up and down it's kind of been like a chop y so remember when we hearken all the way back to the infamous Michael bur warning talking about how inflation may even go lower in the second half of 2023 but this is not the last peak of the cycle um it looks like right now maybe we're heading towards an intermediate Peak uh you know we made some significant progress where you know headline CPA was like 9% at one point in time and now we're we've moved down to looking at you know High 3% on the core like 3.8 it's still double what the the actual expectation of the Federal Reserve is to get those back to 2% um although things are overall trended in the proper direction I think the data has been supporting them being less and less kind of aggressive in their rate cuts and that's why you know I think we might have a longer longer time um before we to see those cuts like three for this year is I think that's even starting to come a doubt in my own mind to be honest when do you think the first one will be I don't even know if we're going to see one in like around the midpoint of the year I think it might be the latter half of the year before we see anything that's what I'm hoping for I I think there's like a under 50% chance it happens in June as the first one I would I would go slightly over on the on the ladder there yeah um this is it's it's kind of the same as the last graph it's just way easier to visually appreciate because it's a line graph but it's just the Consumer Price Index year-over-year percent changed as of February so you can see all items we we have come down quite a bit it is pretty impressive what they did in a short amount of time to be honest because they at one point you know drone pal was being said he's going to crash the economy and Yellen said he made a huge mistake and she is wrong Yellen was incorrect so hindsight yeah the Market's been very resilient the market and the economy sorry been very resilient to these rate Cut Rate hikes yeah now there are two reasons why we the big reason to not buy TLT is if you're thinking that this is the new Norm right we are not going to have rate Cuts this is just how it is I don't think that's realistic um there are two big reasons one when you're in a recession you have a decrease in rates you have to try to stimulate the economy right I'm not saying that this is an accurate graph I them big grain of salt on these fear indexes and recession ches here this is not like a you know don't pay your money on this but according to them may of this year is when we have the highest probability of starting a recession right I'm trying to see what is the percentage likelihood they give it over there though I can't quite okay well so over 70% certainty wow okay yeah I I don't again I don't I don't know about that but I feel like just like one analyst made this graph and it got passed around between a bunch of news channels I don't I don't know about that um here's the the bigger instance we're going broke uh America's not doing well um the total debt was at I think it was at 34 trillion uh when I looked earlier so how compounding interest Works which a lot of our politicians apparently don't understand because and on both sides of the aisle last uh three presidents did not do well on budgeting they uh didn't understand it but essentially when you have a high interest rate and you're spending Six Trillion a year on the economy or sorry on on from the government as the budget when you have a high interest rate you get screwed so if you could look at the 2010 you know we paid 196 billion interest 10 years later 345 that's not a terrible increase that's actually 10 years not the worst however last year 660 billion okay so that's wild almost double the entire defense department budget is at 700 billion or 900 billion I can't remember I think we're almost in that territory yeah almost the entire defense budget is now interest it's interest alone it's ridiculous so I don't even I this is a problem if the Federal Reserve doesn't decrease rates I think Biden said we'll hit 45 trillion by 2030 it's going to be way faster than that it's not even going to be close because they's budget and then they spend way more than what they budgeted just from a bunch of random happening so you put interest on top of that this is the problem we're going to spend from the the the total deficit of like 34 trillion a monstr it number of that is the last six years it's it's I I don't know if they just don't understand compound interest or what but if the Federal Reserve kept interest rates at this number your TLT shares don't matter because bonds are now are we we we have we can't pay back our debt there's a bullets are going to be more important bullets and food so it's okay Dylan I love it getting a little aggressive there are we but I I I understand the logic that's pretty crazy though but yeah it's they they have to they can't keep at this rate it's just not sustainable and you'll see people who don't understand this being like well in the '90s we had 15% well we didn't have 34 trillion in debt so that's not that's a stupid thing to say it's just a dumb thing to say so 15% is I don't that's not possible um 1% chance I should never say a definitive statement but it's it's just not the same envir enironment So eventually they do have to decrease um I'm going to continue to do these puts and sell around 97 I did not get to sell around 97 this time because it it didn't hit my limit order it was like away sell what at 97 my so I got assigned puts uh 95 selling 97 so I'm trying to make 2% with every move so to sell calls at 97 no no no no no sell the shares that I got assigned on the puts okay okay okay yeah so I'm trying to buy get ass signed around 93 and sell around 97 I'm trying to do about two% per move of the 50,000 I'm messing with okay so you just trading the channel basically at this point all right that makesense I just want to clarify that uh as far as what instrument you're using to exit at 97 okay cool it's it's not a it's not really a wheel strategy it's that's not really how it's close enough but not really yeah so yeah you you'd have to sell a call at 97 in order to actually make it a wheel yes yeah I might I don't know we'll see all right guys catch you next one
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