Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian: Economy in a good place despite trade tensions

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미중 무역갈등 격화에도 미국 경제는 양호하다는 진단. 관세는 시장 이슈가 더 크고 경제 충격은 제한적. 다만 관세가 일시적 과정(journey)이 아니라 최종 상태(destination)가 될 수 있다는 우려가 시장 심리를 바꾸고 있음. 트럼프 행정부의 관세는 경제 문제를 넘어 중국 견제라는 국가안보 문제이며, 이 때문에 경제 계산이 복잡해짐. 기업들은 중국 의존도를 줄이는 공급망 재편을 추진 중. 연준 관점: 노동시장이 견조하고 임금 상승·설비투자가 괜찮아 성장률 2.5~3% 경제에서 금리 인하는 어렵다고 봄. 단, 금융시장 급락이 실물로 전이될 우려가 있는 자기실현적 시장 사고 시에만 인하 가능성. 시장 밸류에이션(위험자산)은 여전히 높아 불편하다고 언급. 유럽 요인이 아닌 미국 자체 요인으로 10년물 금리가 오르지 않는 점도 우려. 투자 전략: 미국 내수 중심 종목을 선호하고 전 세계 대비 상대가치 거래, 전술적 대응 필요. 변동성 큰 장세 예상.

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01. Mohamad you know you've been fairly optimistic about the US economy have been right how much have you adjusted if at all your view given the trade escalation we've seen over the last week and a half I still think sir that the economy is in a good place and that this trade escalation may take some of the momentum off but it's not gonna be that big it's a bigger issue for the markets than it is for the economy the economy is relatively closed the market depends too much high extent on external revenues so it's a much more market issue than it is an issue for the economy even with a market that is dipping I don't know five percent off the highs in about a week or so doesn't that filter into consumer and business confidence if not the direct tariff effect in a closed economy it may at some point and that's the one thing that people are scared about and it's a reason why I think President Trump is putting pressure on the Fed is you're worried that bad markets becomes bad economics I mean that's a major concern I think the major change going on in the market mindset right now is the journey versus destination for quite a while we we all expected the tariff did for that to be part of a journey that still leads to we but fairer trade now that's growing concern that these higher types may be part of the destination and that's a completely different calculus for the market do you believe that the President believes that the tariffs actually are a constructive force on the US economy I think what what the President believes is that this is more than just an economic issue this is also a national security issue the economic dimension is relatively simple to solve the national security dimensions much harder there is a view out there that this is the time to quote contain China if you don't do it now when will you do it and look we may suffer but China suffers a great deal more so it's a national security angle called that comes in and complicates the economic calculus I think I mean investors are rightfully confused Mohammed because on the one hand his tweets seem to suggest that the goal is repatriation of u.s.

02. supply chains right make your products here in the States and yet he still suggests that we could make a deal in a matter of weeks I mean one's a very long scenario the others relatively short term so I do think you're seeing a reorientation of the supply chain companies that I speak to are all looking to reduce their reliance on China and that is because they realized that these trade tensions aren't going away with a deal that the deal will be a ceasefire but fundamentally this is an issue of global positioning this is an issue of massive security so it's not just an economic issue so it doesn't surprise me that companies as a Cruden step will start to diversify more their supply chains well I made the president this morning tweeted out about China and he also called on the Fed to quote match the policies of China saying that China is lowering its interest rate and you know trying to stimulate its economy how much more difficult right now is life for chair Jay Powell so it is more difficult politically China will boost stimulus they will go back to old measures their problem is that first these measures are not as effective as they've been in the past and second they are inconsistent with where they want to be in the medium-term but they'll they'll they'll go to those measures to try and boost their economy for us it's very different I don't think anybody doubts that a more dovish fed is good for the markets well the transmission mechanism to the economy has proven to be quite poor so I think that it puts the Fed in a really hard place unless it believes what he said earlier Sarah that we are on the brink of a financial disruption that will contaminate the real economy that's how it felt at the end of December we're in a better place now but that's the only thing that would get this to move a feeling that a market this location would contaminate the economy what's your bet I mean do you do you think the Fed will cut rates this year I do not I think that the labor market remains strong I look for wage growth to pick up business investment seems fine the government will be slightly contractionary but nothing major so I think this is a two and a half to three percent economy and it's hard to see the Fed cut rates in this and but the one the one qualification is a self fulfilling market accident that then forces the Fed to worry about financial contamination of the real economy finally Muhammad where are you looking in the markets bond market currencies where are you looking for a signal that might make you feel a little bit more nervous because overall you seem pretty relaxed about the whole thing some will ask about the economy I am NOT relaxed about the valuation of risk assets it bothers me for example that the 10-year bond hasn't really picked up in yield today and it's not because of Europe normally it's because of Europe no this is not because of Europe this is more a US view today so unless we lacks about the market valuations are still quite elevated I think investors have to focus on relative relative value trades they have to favor the US domestically oriented names versus the rest of the world and they've got to be a lot more tactical in this environment it's going to be very choppy out there sir you