저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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결론: 투자 프로세스와 산업은 팬데믹 이후에도 근본적으로 바뀌지 않으며, 공식이나 숫자만으로는 투자할 수 없다. 팬데믹과 투자 방식: 팬데믹 같은 사건은 계속 고려되겠지만 실제로는 자주 일어나지 않고, 코로나만큼 나쁘지 않은 경우도 많다고 봄. 보수성 변화: 약간의 보수적 성향은 생길 수 있으나, 당시 시장 움직임을 보면 그렇게 보이지 않는다고 언급. 가치투자 비판: PER이 낮다고 무조건 저평가, 높다고 고평가가 아니며, ROE 등 숫자 기준으로 종목을 걸러내는 것은 잘못이라고 주장. 품질과 가격의 균형: 투자자의 역할은 기업의 품질과 주가를 비교해 가격이 가치할 만한지 판단하는 것. 옷을 고를 때 가격과 품질을 함께 보는 것에 비유. 낮은 가격의 함정: 많은 사람이 가치투자를 저가 매수와 혼동하며, 낮은 가격은 충분한 이유가 있는 경우가 많다고 경고. 젊은 개인투자자 유입: 젊은 층 주식투자 증가의 원인으로 봉쇄로 카지노·스포츠 베팅이 막힌 점, 실업급여 추가 지급(주당 약 900달러 수준)으로 여유자금이 생긴 점, 3월 23일 저점 이후 강한 반등을 언급. 다만 개인투자자 유입이 시장 수준을 좌우할 정도로 영향이 크다고는 보지 않음. 레버리지 경고: 빌린 돈으로 투자하는 것은 매우 위험하며, 시장 폭락 시 좋은 주식을 보유하기 어렵게 만든다고 경고. 시청자들에게 빚으로 무리한 투자를 하지 말 것을 당부. 감정 관리: 투자에서는 폭락장에서도 냉정함을 유지하는 것이 가장 중요하다고 강조.
다듬은 글
i don't think that you're going to see fundamental change to the investment process um i i think that people will perhaps for a while always consider the possibility of a pandemic but the truth is they don't happen that often and many of them are not as bad as the uh coronavirus so there may be uh well i was gonna say there may be some modest leaning towards conservatism but if you see how the market's behaving now you wouldn't think so so i'm going to say that that the investment process and the investment industry is not going to be fundamentally changed foreign i think you can't invest by a formula you can't say if a stock has a low p e ratio then it's good value and if it has a high p e ratio it's not and that's why investing is not a simple activity many stocks have low p e ratios for a good reason that they have a bad business many stocks have a high p e ratio because they have a wonderful business and you know it would be a mistake to say i'm gonna i'm gonna ignore all stocks that have a p e ratio above uh uh 15 or above 20 or something like that uh uh or ever all i'm going to ignore all the ones that have a high return on equity and and focus on the ones with low return and vice versa you can't do it by the numbers what the job of the investor is to balance the quality of what he's getting versus the price just like when you go in a store and you want to buy uh a a a piece of clothing you you look at how good it is and then you say is it worth the price you we don't say i only buy shirts that cost under twenty dollars maybe you can find a great shirt for under 20 but maybe you have to pay 30 to get a better one and you might conclude that it's worth it so i think a lot of people confuse value investing with low price and a lot of things have low prices for a perfectly good reason which is that that's all they deserve so uh i think you have to get off the numbers and get off the belief that you can make money just by buying stocks with low p e ratios well i don't know about conditions in other countries not in korea not in india i know that investing has become popular among young people lately um one of the theories is that it that the casinos were all closed because of the lockdown and the sports teams you know in america there's a lot of sports and and people bet heavily on sports but the sports teams weren't playing because of the lockdown so with no casinos and no sports betting people had to turn to the stock market instead the other thing is that the the government supplemented unemployment insurance for people out of work with a large amount nor unemployment insurance usually pays about 300 a week and the government added another 600 so people were getting 900 a week and a substantial percentage of people made more during the lockdown than they did when they were working so maybe they had some extra money to gamble with and uh and the the you know the uh recovery of the stock market from the low that was said on march 23rd was very strong and maybe that excited some some people but for whatever reason uh it does seem anecdotally that that retail so-called retail investing has become more popular i don't personally think that it's enough to influence the market uh other than at the margin but i don't think that you can blame the level of the market on retail investing and i don't think that uh that a a a change of heart by the retail investors is going to uh kill the market i i do want to respond to what you said about people borrowing money to to invest in the stock market i think that that's very dangerous i would encourage people to to uh invest within your means one of the most important things in investing is you have to have a clear head so that you can do the right thing when trouble comes and if you if you've if you've invested money that isn't yours if you've invested money that you've borrowed from some somebody else and you're going to have to pay it back i think it makes it very hard to for example hold on to good stocks uh when the market is collapsing and uh it's hard to uh be be unemotional when you're playing with borrowed money so i would caution uh your viewers not to uh get out on a limb and and get in trouble with borrowed money so you can the
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