저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 시장은 자본 유입과 리테일 확대로 구조적으로 강하며, 장기(5년+) 투자 관점을 강조. 유가 65~70달러 유지 시 인도 인플레·루피·경상수지에 우호적이며 NBFC·금융 사이클이 시작됐다고 봄. 방산은 국산화 정책과 수출 가능성으로 성장 여지가 크다고 언급. 대형 개별 종목 가격 목표는 없음.
다듬은 글
I didn't mean to say sir that you are investing for 6 months, but when you buy now even for a 5 year term, you are prepared for the fact that for the next 6 months your investment will not yield any profit. I mean, I'm interested in five-year returns, I have all kinds of stories, like one company I invested in in 2003 , nothing happened for 10 years , even though the companies were getting more valuable.
But the price didn't move at all . And then, between 2013 and 2025 , it grew by about 50 times. Wow. And I still hold every share. 10 years—how do you set yourself up to keep the business going for 10 years? Because you see the value. I bought it at a discount of 60% of the fair value, 60% off, and every year the value increased by 20%.
So the discount became 90-92%. This extreme story doesn't test your patience that much, but... I get it. Do you see value in the Indian markets now, sir? Still enough. I know that for people like me , who have a very limited amount of money, this is normal. And for funds that have 30-40-50 thousand, you ask them, this is a challenge for them.
Did you say "limited amount of money" for you? I have very limited, my own money—it's very little. Yes. Good. I mean, my asset management company has a lot of money. Yes. With them—that's why let the funds work, you know, overcome this amount of energy in our... But the Indian markets, I have to admit, have behaved very well in light of all this, despite the great uncertainty, except for that May period when Operation Sindoor was in effect .
Have you been surprised by the resilience of Indian markets? Actually, no. I expected this because the influx of capital into the economy is the biggest revolution that India is facing . I say Indian business has never been better. One billion. After the 2020s, you know, the demo account revolution that's happening, retail is coming into full swing.
This is changing every aspect of Indian business. First, the availability of risk: you look at the amount of capital available, anyone can sell for a billion dollars, and even the stock price won't move. This has never happened before, and it is not an isolated incident; Every week, two, three , four billion dollar deals take place.
So , this, I mean, overall there's something missing in the market, but it also, you know, somewhat deepens the market and, uh, confirms that, yeah, a billion, two billion is fast, you know. So, uh, this makes the market very stable, and the capital inflow continues, despite the fact that the index has barely grown by 7-8% over the last year.
And yet, uh, that doesn't mean that foreign capital is coming just because the market has performed well, you know. So, uh, there's a clear shift from fixed income to venture capital; I mean, the so-called financialization of savings that was supposed to happen. You can't have a participation rate of 5, 6 %, 7%.
So when we go from 4 to 8 trillion, we can reach 50%, 70%. We will become the most crowded stock market in the world in a positive sense, the most, crowded. And even the number of shares will be... most people look at companies with a capitalization of 300, 400 million, they go public, and every day you have two or three new ones.
I mean, we could have 150, 200 listings next year. So , at this rate, we could have a thousand new listings in the next 5 years, well, five or six years. So, I'm saying it's going to be a very dynamic market. Of course, there will be a lot of consolidation in the process; Many companies will close, go bankrupt, but many stars will also emerge from this.
The regime change at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), and just the number of measures that the Reserve Bank has taken , and every time you feel like they're doing another thing, that happened yesterday too, right? What do you think about this regime change, and what does it bring for NBFCs, for the financial sector and therefore for the entire lending ecosystem?
I think one threat looming for the country is the price of oil. For the last 25-30 years, we have given all the foreign exchange we have earned in the technology sector to oil companies. Now, the world is awash with oil, and so they're saying, "Before America produces more shale oil, I'm going to flood the market and keep the price at 65, because after 65, shale comes into play." So my feeling is that we will have a situation for a few years at least, I think we will have oil at $65-70, right now because of the tension, that's normal, but I think, despite this tension, only 7-8% .
So, if this theory holds true and the oil price remains in the $65-$70 range, I believe it will be a very anti-inflationary factor, the rupee will remain very stable and our current account deficit will be under complete control. So all sorts of problems for this country will be solved. Currently, inflation is low, and I think the head of the central bank will have absolutely free rein .
You believe that the cycle for NBFCs has already begun. Yes. Good times will come for all banks, for all creditors . Creditors will have good times during the next period. Yes. Good. The other thing, sir, is defense, and Operation Sindoor was, if you will, a proof of concept . Now, the few company executives we spoke with say that the number of requests has increased.
But overall, what do you think about this whole defense ecosystem in India? You've probably met with many companies. Look, you know, one of the problems right now, I mean, of course , orders will come in, government agencies, defense agencies, they're very, very inspired by what's possible to do. The government is forcing them to buy domestic products instead of looking for, what would you call it, foreign alternatives, because after all, you can't be the 10th largest economy in the world and buy weapons from abroad.
You must, even at the cost of effort, create your own defense mechanism, and when you become independent, you can also become an exporter. Now I'm looking at the automotive industry. Two-wheelers came about thanks to Hero, Hero MotoCorp, and Maruti brought in the subcompact; and today you are completely self-sufficient.
And I think you're probably already exporting these cars and motorcycles, it's possible , because you have a huge domestic base. So, a similar story may be told with defense , because only a few countries can carry out defense production as such: China, Russia, America, and some European countries, but there is no domestic consumption outside of them.
So smaller countries will need our products. There is a good market for well-designed defense products that we consume and then export.
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