저자: EronFloarea · 외국인
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결론: 이 영상은 주식 가치평가 기법(오너 어닝 기반 간이 평가)을 소개하며, 특정 종목에 대한 방향성 예측은 없다. 영상 주제는 5분 안팎으로 기업 가치를 추정하는 방법으로, 워런 버핏이 1980년대에 쓴 것으로 소개된다. 가치평가 방식은 청산가치, 계속기업가치, 시장가치 세 가지로 나뉜다. 청산가치는 사업 존속이 어려운 기업에, 시장가치는 고성장·적자 기업에 주로 쓰이며, 발표자는 계속기업가치 방식을 선호한다고 밝혔다. 계산법은 분자에 최근 연도 영업현금흐름에서 자본적지출을 뺀 잉여현금흐름을, 분모에 할인율을 둔다. 할인율은 무위험이자율(약 0.8%), 가중평균자본비용(WACC), 그리고 인플레이션 급등 가정의 10%를 사용해 범위를 본다. 이 방식의 한계로 미래 성장이 반영되지 않아 성장주가 과대평가로 보인다는 점이 언급된다. 예시로 애플은 잉여현금흐름 약 717억 달러, WACC 3.2%로 계산 시 약 2.2조 달러가 나오며 시가총액 약 1.9조 달러와 비교해 적정 수준에 가깝다고 평가된다. 10% 할인율 적용 시 약 7,170억 달러로 크게 낮아진다. 우버는 영업현금흐름이 마이너스여서 이 방식으로는 음수 가치가 나오므로 적합하지 않다고 설명한다. 발표자는 투자 권유가 아니라고 명시했다.
다듬은 글
what's up everybody welcome back to my channel in this video i'm going to be covering the fastest valuation method that allows you to value a company relatively accurately in under five minutes it requires minimal math all you really need to be able to do is add subtract and divide and you'll be able to find the evaluation of a company in less than five minutes this is a valuation method that was pioneered by warren buffett back in the 1980s and is one that is still very useful today by the end of this video you're going to know when it is useful to be applying this valuation method you're going to know exactly how to use the valuation method and we're going to do that by going over a few real world examples just to show you when this valuation method is useful and when it is not so with that let's get right into it now when it comes to value company there are three broad valuation approaches that you can take to valuing a business the first is the liquidation value the second is the going concern value and the third is the market value the liquidation value is used when you're trying to value a company that is operating in an industry that is no longer viable or a company who is about to go out of business unless you have an investment strategy or a trading strategy that requires you to invest in companies that are about to go out of business this isn't necessarily an approach that is worth you looking into because most investors are not going to be investing in companies that are about to go out of business the second valuation method is the going concern value now to find the growing concern value of a company essentially what you want to do is find the present value of future free cash flows that the company is going to generate some valuation methods that find the going concern value of a company are the discounted cash flow model the earnings power value model and the valuation technique we're going to be talking about today which is owner earnings this is probably the most used valuation technique that is used by most investors and analysts in the market today so it is very useful to understand how to conduct a going concern valuation for a company the third and final valuation method is the market value approach this is generally used for high growth companies or companies that are not yet profitable and the way that you find the market value of a company is by comparing it to its peers so this is when you would compare the price to earnings price to book or price of sales ratios of different companies and this is also what is called a relative valuation however as a value investor i always use the going concern valuation method for finding the intrinsic value of the companies i'm looking to invest in so i'm going to be showing you the fastest growing concern valuation approach that i have found today that is going to allow you to find the intrinsic value of the company in less than five minutes so as i alluded to that valuation technique is owner earnings and it is very straightforward it is made up of just two components a numerator and a denominator it's really that simple the numerator is going to be the free cash flows that the company has generated in the most recent year and the denominator is going to be some discount factor that we're going to use to discount those free cash flows essentially what this valuation method is is finding the perpetuity value of a company's free cash flows now while it is an extremely simple valuation method that does come with its drawbacks one of those is that it does not take into account future growth for the company since you're essentially finding the perpetuity value of the company's free cash flows as if they're going to remain constant at today's value you're not taking into account any future growth and free cash flows if you are using this valuation technique for a growth company you're probably going to find that a lot of the growth companies are going to seem to be overvalued but that's just because this valuation technique does not take into account future growth and this valuation technique is one that i generally use when i'm screening stocks and i'm trying to decide which stocks are going to be worth me looking into so let's get into how to use the formula because it's extremely simple and it just takes a few minutes to explain the first part is a numerator that consists of the free cash flows the company has generated now to calculate the free cash flows all you have to do is take the operating cash flow produced by the company in the most recent year and subtract the capital expenditures the company has made in that year the reason why you want to subtract capital expenditures is because capital expenditures are a necessary cash outlay that every single company needs to make in order to remain competitive in their industry capital expenditures represent the spending that a company makes on buying property plant and equipment and the reason they need to do that is because they need to replace property plant and equipment that has aged and is no longer able to produce economic benefits and they also need to grow their property plant and equipment so that they can grow the revenues of the company over time so capital expenditures are a necessary cash outlay for every company and that is why you want to subtract capital expenditures from operating cash flows now that you have a numerator all you have to do is divide by a discount factor in order to find the intrinsic value of a company now i generally use three different discount factors and the reason why is because i want to provide myself with a range of valuations that lets me know if the company is relatively overvalued or if it is grossly undervalued now the first discount factor i'll use is the risk-free rate this is going to provide me with the highest valuation for the company because the risk-free rate is going to be the lowest denominator that you can possibly use to discount future free cash flows now this is actually what warren buffett used to do in the 1980s and 1990s however back then the risk-free rate was a lot higher than it is today which today it's around 0.8 percent so for that reason using the risk-free rate today given the current market conditions is probably going to be providing you with an extremely large valuation and it won't be that valuable but under market conditions where the risk free rate is a little bit higher it can still provide you with a relatively reasonable valuation the second discount factor that i will use is the weighted average cost of capital for the company this takes into account the cost of debt for the company and the cost of equity for the company so i think that using the weighted average cost of capital as a discount factor provides you with the most reasonable valuation for most companies most of the time and the third and final discount factor i'll use is something a little bit higher i'll use something like 10 percent just to see what the valuation of the company would be if inflation just exploded in the economy or interest rates just skyrocketed out of nowhere i want to know what impact that would have on the evaluation of the company once i have that range of valuations for the company if the company is trading above the valuation that is provided by discounting the free cash flows by just the risk-free rate that tells me that the company is probably overvalued and that i don't want to be looking into it if the company is trading more towards the valuation that i get when i'm discounting the future free cash flows by the higher discount factor of 10 then that tells me that the company is likely undervalued and that's a company i want to conduct a more in-depth valuation on and actually look into the business model a little bit more now this is very particular to my investment strategy because i'm a value investor but i do think that this is a very valuable evaluation technique that almost anybody can apply in order to find the intrinsic value of a company relatively quickly so now let's use a real world example just to see how it plays out and the two companies we're going to be using are apple and uber now apple generated approximately 80 billion dollars of operating cash flows in the last 12 months and they spent about 8.3 billion dollars on capital expenditures so that gives us free cash flows of 71.7 billion dollars so that's going to be our numerator in the denominator we're going to use the risk free rate of 0.81 percent the weighted average cost of capital for the company which is 3.2 percent and then we're gonna also discount it by the 10 on the off chance that inflation comes roaring back or interest rates just skyrocket and apple's future free cash flows have to be discounted at a higher discount factor now when we divide by the current risk free rate of 0.81 percent we get an intrinsic value over 8 trillion dollars for apple now clearly with the risk free rate being so low this is a very misleading valuation so it's really not providing us with that much insight on what the true intrinsic value of the company may be but we can get a better idea when we divide it by the weighted average cost of capital when we divide 71.7 billion dollars by 3.2 percent we get an intrinsic value of 2.2 trillion dollars now given that apple is currently trading at about 1.9 trillion dollars that shows us that apple is trading relatively near what is a pretty fair valuation for the company given its current weighted average cost of capital however if we divide 71.7 billion dollars by 10 we get an intrinsic value of just 717 billion dollars now that tells us that if the market conditions were to change very drastically and very sharply then apple is currently overvalued by approximately 150 percent so that just tells us that while apple is trading at a relatively fair valuation given today's market conditions if market conditions were to turn sour then apple would be pretty overvalued so the insight that this provides you with is that apple is trading near a fair valuation however it is certainly not undervalued given today's market conditions now the second company we're going to take a look at is uber and the reason why i want to go over uber is just to show you that this valuation technique isn't necessarily applicable to all companies now uber generated around negative four billion dollars in operating cash flows and on top of that they spent over one billion dollars on capital expenditures so if we input these values which gives us a numerator about negative five billion dollars and the denominator really doesn't matter this gives us an intrinsic value for uber that is negative clearly uber is actually worth something so this valuation technique doesn't necessarily give us an accurate valuation of uber for uber you'd probably want to be using a market value approach rather than using a going concern approach because it's pretty tough to predict what the future free cash flows that uber is going to be able to generate in the future are going to be so that does it for this video i hope you guys enjoyed as always i'm not a financial advisor but i do hope you enjoyed and learned something from this video that you're going to be able to apply to your own investment strategy in the future i hope you guys have a great weekend and i look forward to seeing you in my next video
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