🌟Reading Howard Marks Latest Memo | Invest with Guru

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Howard Marks의 최신 메모를 정리한 영상으로, 결론은 저금리·유동성 환경에서 자산 기대수익률이 낮아졌으니 기대치를 낮추고 위험을 감수할지 판단하라는 것이다. 거시 환경: 봉쇄로 인한 경기 침체는 원인이 아닌 결과이며 V자 회복은 어렵고, 소비 위축과 소상공인 파산으로 정부 지원이 필요하다고 본다. 항공·여행·호텔 등 타격 산업에 대한 지원이 중요하다고 언급했다. 금리와 주가: 연준 기준금리가 제로에 가까워 할인율이 낮아지면서 현재 주가가 높게 형성됐다. 금리 하락으로 자산 기대수익률은 과거보다 낮아졌지만 투자자들이 이를 간과하고 있다는 지적이다. 시장 구조: S&P500은 페이스북·애플·아마존·마이크로소프트·구글(FAANG)이 주도하고 있다. 이들 기업은 팬데믹 수혜를 누렸으며, 2000년 닷컴 버블 당시 니프티50과 유사한 면이 있으나 현재 기업은 더 크고 해자가 깊다고 평가했다. 다만 어딘가에 버블은 존재한다고 봤다. 투자 권고: 전액 현금 보유는 수익률 0에 인플레이션으로 자산 가치가 훼손되므로 최선이 아니다. 투자자는 과거보다 낮은 수익을 준비하고, 고수익을 원하면 위험 증가를 감수해야 하며, 기관이 잘 투자하지 않는 소형주나 틈새 채권 등에서 기회를 찾을 수 있다. 영상은 메모 원문 링크와 오디오 버전 안내로 마무리된다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. hello everyone welcome back to my channel this week i've read the mammal by howard marks coming in true focus howard marx has been very infamous in the investment side probably because even warren buffett praised him as warren buffett says every time howard marx has published a memo he must first click to read it he's a co-founder of oak tree capital management which is asset management has managing more than 100 billion dollars assets and has a diversified portfolio while also focusing on the bond market so today i'm gonna to talk about some takeaways i have got from howard mark's latest memo and hope you guys will find it helpful so now let's get started in this latest memo howard marx has analyzed the current investing environment and the cost of the current situation as well as his suggestion to the investors so the first part talk about the cost of recent market current stock market situation is not a market cycle while there will be both comes after bears and it comes to the bus market because of the economic cycle but he said in this scenario it can be different we expect that the recession is not the cause but the result and in his opinion v-shape recovery will be impossible it's because of the city lockdown a lot of people cannot go to work and because consumers consumption power has decreased a lot of small bins has go bankrupt so that comes to needs of further assistance which is stimulus plant from the fat and in order to help the situation to be improved people need the help from fat no matter every people's life or some small business or some industry that has been impacted heavily due to kobe 19 like airline business and travel business and also hotel business and he mentioned that trillions of dollars is not stimulus but the support in order to make this normal economic activities can go on smoothly and although the fed has already print tons of money into the pump into the market but they still have bullets so even though the interest rate already comes to zero they can also have other actions like if in the future they bought corporate bonds or they even bought some securities and on the second part howard marx has explained why the current stock market has been so high is because the current fed fund rate is almost close to zero and because the stock price is the current discounted value of future cash flow when the interest rate is decreasing the discounted present value will increasing so that's explained the current high stock price and because of interest rate ethereal and there's a fear of missing out in the marketplace so a lot of investors may invest in the real estate market or the invest in stock market that makes those asset price keep increasing at the same times when price high the risk also comes along and i really appreciate that howard marks use a diagram to illustrate a situation how the different interest rate can change the potential return of the assets like in the past when people invest the same amount they would be expected a lower return actually because of the change because of the close to zero interest rate and i find this is something that can usually be ignored by the investors because they think the price high and that means the return would also be high but if we look in the long term and we look at the situation that before the interest rate comes to zero the returns actually be lower in the third section howard marks talks about the changes in the composition of stock market where the currently s p 500 has been driven by the five biggest attack companies faamg which stands for facebook apple amazon microsoft and google he thinks that those big tech giant has benefited from this pandemi and they have going up like non-stop it actually has done some negative impact to some of the non-pep for example like facebook has been threads to the traditional publishers like magazines and medias and amazon has spring threats to the traditional brick and mortar stores like some physical stores and hour marks also compare the current fan stocks to the nifty 50 in the 2000 tech bubble he thinks there are some similarities of those stocks especially when you saw that those tax stock is no longer measured by its pe ratio or depends uh is measured by earnings per share but it's really measured by the future potential to grow and in his opinion that's kind of similar to the 2000 situation but at the current circumstance those tax companies are bigger and have more moat comparing with nifty 50 but he thinks there's definitely some bubbles exist somewhere and the last part is some of his recommendations to the investors one thing i find is very interesting is that some investors may have all in cash and they are waiting for another market correction in howard's opinion it's not the best choices although there's no risk of losing money but the return of the cash is zero they also miss the opportunity of market growth and in the environment of the inflation around two percent if those uh investors they are holding all cash their assets are definitely devaluated he do have some advice to the investors the first is that the investor would expect lower return when comparing with previous environment and just prepared mentally if that is case for the next several years and the second advice is that the investor can put their asset in some risky assets if the investors are seeking for a higher return but they would need to keep in mind that the risk level also increased maybe that has been higher than their previous comfortable zone so that is one thing they need to sacrifice in order to expect the higher returns and the third advice is that the investor can invest in some smaller stocks or bonds that is is in some niche markets that a lot of institutional investors may not necessarily invest in if those companies perform well they could expect a huge huge amount of returns but of course those aggressive investments now also comes with a higher risk so that's all the takeaways i have after reading howard's marks memo i will also leave the link in the description box below and you guys can also have a read if you are interested and you can also listen because it's also have an audio version that i think is great so yeah that's all for today thank you guys for watching and i will see you guys in my next one bye