AVGO, AMD, INTC: Semiconductors & A.I.

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브로드컴은 AI 매출 기대로 주가가 많이 올랐으나 Morningstar 적정가 970달러 대비 현재가 1393달러로 고평가, 사회 자 주장대로 AI 비중은 여전히 소수. Kim Forest는 복합기업 구조(컴퓨터 어소시에이츠, VMware)의 시너지 의문으로 브로드컴 관망. 대신 AMD와 Intel을 긍정적으로 봄. Intel은 파운드리와 자체 AI 칩 가능성, Nvidia는 고가 정책으로 점유율 하락 우려.

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01. welcome back to trading 360 time for our 360 round we're taking a look at broadcom ahead of the company's earnings the overall semi sector Kim Forest is with us founder Chief investment officer at boa Capital partners and William kerwin's with us Equity Analyst at Morningstar thank you both for being with us um I'd love to hear your thoughts I will say that some of the analysts in the last uh few days have been very positive mizuo raised the price Target up to 1550 from 1450 JP Morgan talked about broadcom being a leader in wireless data Center networking AI infrastructure silicon Hardware software um there just have been a lot of positive and this goes with the group The ai5 which we can get into but uh William I'll start with you you have a three star rating a 970 fair value it's at 1393 right now yeah so thank you Nicole there will be a lot of fun things to impact in the print after the markets close today primarily as you said AI so we think networking stocks in general are some primary beneficiaries of the spending surge towards Ai and we think broadcom is one of the best positioned in this round so we believe that they can double their AI revenues in fiscal 20124 and we actually expect double digit growth thereafter into the long term now outside of AI this will also be the first full quarter uh including VMware the large deal that they closed at the end of fiscal 2023 last year so it'll be interesting to see any progress on the integration efforts there and Rising the profitability of VMware up towards broadcom's high levels now all this being said AI is great we think broadcom is very well positioned here but in our view again with our $970 Fair Value Estimate we just think Shares are Out Of Reach here we think it's been a little bit caught up in the hype around Ai and as much as we think that'll have a material benefit to the firm uh we don't think it'll be so material that shares are worth you know where they're trading right now yeah Kim fars where do you stand a name like broadcom ahead of the earnings today and what will you be watching for do you think it's a winner well I think the AI chip uh sales will be a winner and it is the thing that is getting investors attention and that is why they are piling in and probably will continue to Pile in and because I'm a long-term owner of stocks not a Trader of Trends I look at this and there are all these red flags first of all this is a tech conglomerate that has just the weirdest collection of stuff that you can ever imagine and you would never expect it to actually have Synergy uh across the silos that it owns for example it bought computer associate uh Computer Associates which is a maker of Mainframe scheduling software that's that has nothing to do with AI really and and then VMware which could play into AI but we'll see and it's very hard to run these disperate businesses get synergies out of them and make them really strong and that's kind of my argument against any conglomerate you can't give the love to all the silos at the same time and make them you know robust so that's why we sit out on uh broadcom at this time yeah and I have the names that you like uh to play some of the trends and I want to get to those um for right now since I talked about the ai5 Nvidia Microsoft Taiwan semi broadcom and AMD um William is this this um overvaluation on broadcom is that a theme across some of these other names or do you feel that some of these other names have more potential for growth well we definitely think they all have potential for growth but it's really a matter of what's being priced into the stocks and so you know for broadcom specifically you know to Kim's Point AI is still a minority of the business it's by no means taking over all of broadcom's business even if it gets all of the news coverage right now uh we think it'll grow as a portion of that but remain a minority so there's a lot other there are a lot of other things going on in the stock right now besides Ai and we just think that that AI is priced too heavily into the stock compared to uh the effect that it has on the business right now yeah understood um Kim let's let's broaden it out because I do see some of your names some are in the ai5 and some are not U which names do you like right now so the one that's in the ai5 is pretty reasonable um AMD they have uh competitive chips and they kind of Started from the same um base as Nvidia did where they both have Graphics chips that are hot and that is essentially what the foundation of these AI semis are is that fast very specific kind of processing power that they can then use in AI applications now the next one that I like is a little less obvious but Intel and Intel could benefit in two ways first of all it's becoming a Foundry and as we know a lot of the Hot Chip makers aren't actually makers at all they're chip designers like Nvidia and you know they could potentially uh benefit from a lot of their products into that area um but also you know Intel has a pretty good shot of creating its own AI chip and Microsoft seems like it has funded that process and you know there's a user right off the bat open AI uh through the Microsoft connection I think nvidia's sin is this that it always has overpriced its chips it's gotten those prices but it will lose market share to lower value um products and I think AI is going to be a driver for um Computing for the foreseeable future but lower priced uh as capable chips could win the day as opposed to the super high priced ones yeah understood and I'll give you a shout out Kim fars because you really have talked about Intel for a long time you've been on this show a long time and it is a name that you've spoken of and over one year I can't say you were exactly one year ago but 81% so you definitely have been uh liking this one and it certainly is paid off if people um got on board with that thank you both William Kim Kim Forest of boka capital Partners William Kerwin of Morning Star nice setup for broadcom we'll have that later on Market on close