Le PALLE QUADRATE di Michael Burry 🖖161

요약 보기

영화 'The Big Short'와 마이클 버리의 사례를 통해 기업가 정신을 설명하는 영상이다. 결론은 남들이 틀렸다고 해도 자신의 분석을 믿는 것이 중요하다는 것이다. 주제 1: 2005년 버리는 부동산 담보대출 기반의 고위험 대출이 부실 가능성이 높다고 판단했다. 부실 대출을 개별 분석해 확신을 얻었다. 주제 2: 부동산 하락에 베팅할 금융상품이 없자 버리는 이를 만들어 달라고 요구했다. 은행들은 부동산 시장이 무너지지 않는다고 믿어 이 베팅을 쉬운 수익으로 보았다. 주제 3: 2008년 투자은행들이 연쇄 붕괴하면서 버리의 펀드는 수백만 달러 기준 약 500% 수익을 냈다. 발표자는 붕괴 자체보다 버리가 조롱 속에서 베팅을 유지한 용기에 주목한다. 주제 4: 펀드 손실이 2년간 이어지자 투자자들이 환매를 요구했고, 버리는 계약 조항을 이용해 환매를 막았다. 그는 붕괴 시점을 정확히 알지 못했지만 결국 무너질 것이라고 확신했다. 주제 5: 발표자는 시청자에게 남의 반대에 밀려 자기 판단을 바꾼 경험을 돌아보라고 권한다. 자기 분석을 믿으라는 메시지다. 이 영상에는 특정 종목·지수에 대한 1~3개월 가격 예측이 없다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Some time ago I saw a wonderful film that I suggest you watch because even if it seems to have nothing to do with it, it actually really helps your entrepreneurial mind grow. The film is called Big Short and it's the story of this extremely eccentric guy who is even nerdier than me, which is saying a lot, but he is a huge genius when it comes to stock market investments.

02. So in 2005 he realizes, long before the real estate market collapses, that all the ratings from the agencies that express the quality of real estate investments are terrible phonies, that is, they are all fake. Michael How are you? I've discovered something interesting: the entire real estate market is supported by risky loans that cannot last.

03. He realizes, in short, that all loans based on American real estate mortgages. In short, not all, but a large part, are loans that actually have a very high probability of not being honored by the person who took them out. None of my mortgages, like none of my mortgages. I have five houses and a timeshare, so they are certainly not the safe investments the banks would have us believe, and to realize this, this gentleman does something that no one else had.

04. never thought of doing that is, he starts to rummage through all the mortgage applications that belong to the big investment funds and analyzes them one by one, that is, But we are talking about thousands and thousands of mortgage applications. Here this gentleman, after all this work, is convinced beyond any doubt that the real estate market will collapse.

05. So what does he think of doing? Well, he thinks of betting an avalanche of millions of dollars on the downside. The extremely solid real estate market is a powder keg. Now betting on the downside means that if the market collapses. He makes money. If the market stays as it is or increases in value, then he loses and loses a monthly portion of his investment.

06. In short, a bit like paying mortgage installments. Now, up to this point, nothing strange except for the fact that at the time there were no financial products that allowed you to bet on the downside of the real estate market. And this is because since everyone considered the real estate market extremely solid, no one had ever thought of it before and here is the first great lesson for your entrepreneurial mind.

07. That is, this guy is so convinced of his idea that he says, well, what's the problem? If they don't exist, I'll have these products created for me. allow you to bet against the real estate market Also because the banks were very happy with this gentleman's bet because they were so sure that the real estate market would never collapse that for them it was an opportunity to make easy money especially because this guy was investing heavily.

08. Well, I think you already know the end of the story around 2008, the first investment banks collapsed, Lemman Brothers started and then naturally all the others collapsed in a chain reaction and at that moment our friend called Michael Barry made his fund make almost 500% profit on a basis of millions and millions of dollars.

09. But the interesting story in my opinion is not so much the episode of the collapse of the banks. The ethical implications etc. It is instead to think about What giant balls this Michael Barry had to bet against the banks. They will think we are crazy or unbalanced really brilliant and this is the second great lesson you can take from this film for your entrepreneurial mind.

10. Yes because when Barry chose to invest against the market he was naturally taken for crazy and ridiculed not only by all the banks but especially by his colleagues. his partners in the investment fund and even his own clients, that is, those who had put money into the fund, so Mike Barry who gets his hair done at the hypermarket doesn't wear shoes, he knows more than Allan Greenspan, Dr.

11. Mike Barry. Yes, of course. So, imagine for a moment the psychological situation. You, the client, have put money into an investment fund that has always performed well. At a certain point, the fund manager does something that seems totally senseless. Then the partners try to bring him to his senses, but he is convinced he is right.

12. At which point you say, well, if he is a genius, it will probably be like that. After all, he has always done well up until now. But then the first month passes. The real estate market rises and the fund. So, he bet on the downside and starts losing money. Then a year passes and the market rises again and the fund loses money.

13. Two years pass, the same thing. Well, at that point, obviously, the fear of losing everything on the part of the fund members begins to become a little concrete, so people begin to get seriously pissed off, even in Berry's case, a large number of investors. At that point, they try to exit the fund even at a loss just to get their money back because their fear was to lose everything But what does Barry do?

14. He invokes a technicality in the contract and prevents his clients from leaving. In short, this Berry is alone against everyone inside and outside his house and he is also mocked by everyone and in the end even he does n't have a crystal ball, that is, he knows that sooner or later everything will collapse.

15. But deep down, even he can't be sure of when and you know when you have hundreds of millions of dollars invested that are not yours Well, they have more, they have less, it makes all the difference in the world since you pay the outcome of your bet every month but Barry trusts his work, he blindly trusts his knowledge of the market, he is 100% sure that things will go as they did.

16. Do you have any idea what you have done? You bet against the American economy, now imagine what you would have done in his place. You are a successful man. You have an important position and you make a decision based on everything you have learned in a lifetime but everyone is against you, everyone thinks you are wrong, everyone tells you look, you risk losing everything.

17. Stop immediately, eh? But if you listen to them at that point, you are seriously wrong now. How many times has it happened to you to live a situation similar to Barry's How many times have you made a decision you believed in but since you were alone against everyone you changed your mind How many times have you trusted others instead of yourself Think about it and the next time it happens to you Remember Michael Berry and his square balls next time from jl Marshall Y