저자: AydınTopu · 외국인
요약 보기
튀르키예 부동산 가격이 2026년 8월에도 하락 추세를 이어갈 것으로 전망. 임대료 상승률이 물가보다 낮고 매매가 상승도 없어 실질적으로 하락 중이라고 주장. 과거 투기적 매매 순환과 투자자 이탈, 도시재생 구조, 상가 임대 정체를 근거로 제시. 금리 인하 시 대출 수요가 늘 수 있으나 과거 저금리 시기에도 가격이 떨어졌다는 점을 들어 확신하지 않음. 자산시장 예측은 한국 상장 자산과 직접 관련 없음.
다듬은 글
Will the downward trend in real estate prices continue in August? Or will real estate prices start rising in August due to interest rates or some other reason? My opinion on this matter is that, as you know, real estate prices will continue to fall. Because the symptoms always pointed in that direction.
So rent increases are now well below inflation, or even on a downward trend. There has also been no increase in real estate sales prices . In fact, a general comparison of the first six months of 2025 and 2026 had already shown a decrease in the numbers. In the real estate sector , the increase in zoning and development costs did not affect sales prices.
So, the increase in contractors' costs did not affect sales prices. When we talk about a decrease in sales prices, it does n't necessarily mean that houses are being sold for cheaper. In a country with inflation above 30%, if prices are stable, it already means there is a decline. That means a 30% decrease on an annual basis.
But if this decline exists, and it does, then everyone needs to decide for themselves where it will lead and move forward . My perspective as a real estate consultant is this . If real estate prices aren't increasing despite inflation, it means they've fallen. But if it's falling, that means there's a problem.
It's falling and there's a problem. Let's talk about the problem. Real estate prices have risen incredibly since 2020, coinciding with the pandemic. Actually, part of this was a recovery from the decline that had been ongoing since 2015 . Okay, so far so good . When we look at the cost calculation within the dollar itself, since there is inflation in the dollar, a portion of the increase is okay, that's fine.
But when you looked at the increase as a percentage of the total cost, it wasn't realistic. So it was clear that in a country like ours, average rents being above, and far above, the minimum wage wouldn't continue or be sustainable. Who will pay for this? The fact that people have been spending their savings for years just to maintain their living standards , and haven't been able to save anything, has pushed them towards other things.
Where did he push her? Either by profiting from increases in the stock market, cryptocurrencies, or gold—in other words, by creating a cost basis for increases that are not within one's control. I can't pay my rent, so I'll just put the money in an interest-bearing account , and it will grow so I can pay my rent.
Or I could invest in gold, wait for the price of gold to rise, and then sell it and pay. Or I'll buy and sell on the stock market, or I'll buy and sell cryptocurrency. Society has become completely devoid of buy-sell experts . In order to protect our money or at least minimize our losses, to avoid being overwhelmed by this systematic transfer of money, wealth, and power, to survive and continue financially, ordinary people have entered these stock exchanges I mentioned, seeking ways to increase their wealth through manipulation.
So, buying something for 3 lira and selling it for 5 lira in a month is manipulation. If I get on that manipulation train and get off at the first station in a month with a 50% profit, I'll close out this year. Yes. It happened during the pandemic. It happened at some point after the pandemic. Let me tell you a story.
In 2021-2022, in the middle of the pandemic, we bought a property, or rather, had a client buy it, during an urban transformation project. The contractor sold the apartment, which was on the 9th floor (a non-existent floor), to a contractor for, if I remember correctly, 1,800,000 Turkish Lira. The contractor had celebrated that day in the office with the buyer .
And we had only paid 30% of the money. That building was still standing. Five months later, the contractor bought the apartment back by paying the buyer double the amount we had paid . He celebrated when he sold it, and he celebrated when he bought it back. Because the price of the house had increased from 1,800,000 to 1,800,000 Turkish Lira in its finished state, and then to 5,000,000 Turkish Lira in just 3-5 months .
We sold that house again. We sold it for 5,500,000 lira. The contractor bought the house back for 9,500,000 lira . He bought a portion of the price difference by paying the buyer a profit margin, and the building was still standing. It was still the old building . That apartment I mentioned changed hands three times.
The last owner was found as the building was nearing completion, when it was almost finished. The previous owner also lives in the apartment. This story has been repeated countless times. So, time and again, we've enabled someone to profit from products that weren't even ours, by including them in someone else's sales story or sales trend.
Similarly, in Anatolia, in places like Çanakkale, Balıkesir, and Muğla, villagers' lands are bought by people who have never been there or seen it, then after a while they sell them for one and a half times the price, making a profit. Then, with that money, they buy the neighboring land from someone else who is also making one and a half times the price, thinking, " I'll make another profit," and continue doing so for three years.
And finally. Finished. Making money from money, buying and selling, that's it, it's over, there's no such thing anymore. I haven't sold a house to anyone other than an end-user for a year . Because there isn't one, there are no buyers. The investor withdrew. I've said this before. The investor didn't like these tenant-inheritance schemes.
I bought it, I'm collecting rent, this and that. Because their goal isn't for the monthly rental income to equal the interest paid, or anything like that . Their goal is to significantly increase the price of houses . So, it needs to generate money in bulk. The house is getting old. He asks, "What difference will it make if I collect rent?" And then there's income tax.
She didn't love him either. So there are many reasons why real estate price increases might stop . Economists know the reasons for its decline better. But for it not to increase, supply and demand need to be imbalanced. It balanced things out . There are many properties on the market that haven't found their final owner yet.
There are foreigners, there are investors, there are contractors, there are this person, there are that person. So the market can somehow continue for a long time even without producing anything. Therefore, urban transformation will continue within its own dynamics. In urban transformation projects, the cost calculation ensures that the land cost covers 50% of the project, with the remaining 50% going to the contractor ( 50% investment) and 50% profit from sales, so the contractor isn't burdened with costs.
So, whether the contractor will do it with 35% , 40%, or 45%, that's not what matters . The landowner is asked whether they get 100 square meters , 90 square meters, or 80 square meters of that land share. The calculation takes into account the cost and the profit margin on the remaining buildings; otherwise, they don't build on it.
Given that this process is linked to the earthquake, perhaps the state needs to take on more responsibility . So if the contractors aren't doing it, the state could perhaps take on some risks or provide support to keep this going. He is providing good support even now. The "Half Price On Us" campaign and the credit campaign, when combined, don't be a bad idea.
It makes a good ratio. People benefit from this. There is no problem here. But this is not a reason for prices to rise. TOKİ has already made a significant contribution to housing. So TOKİ is doing the construction . TOKİ is the biggest contractor right now [clears throat]. TOKİ is building amazing, massive construction projects on state-owned land.
And they sell them, those who have the money sell them. Let's not give them away by lottery like in the old days, otherwise it's not like that at all. Those who can afford it should buy it. This also pulls the total price down because TOKİ's units are more numerous than the total number of products sold.
If not that, then there's TOKİ, he says. So, for the person who will buy and rent it out, there is no difference between it being owned by TOKİ (Housing Development Administration of Turkey) or by a private contractor. On the other hand, people who had been paying rent for years were no longer able to pay it .
Since the rent hasn't increased for two years, he's become able to afford it. It was fixed in place too. The worry about whether to buy a house has subsided, as has the worry about whether rent can be paid . So, instead of basing these sales figures on market value, the government has now imposed a significant tax burden on people, forcing them to bear the actual cost of the sales.
Because contractors are now also subject to income tax. Income tax was introduced for everyone. These factors also boost sales figures. It's not selling because the price is going up. Because it's not selling, it's forced to come down . I think contractors can survive for a long time without selling anything.
So, they invested the money they earned 5 years ago in businesses. So, contractors generally built commercial spaces under the buildings and didn't sell those commercial spaces. Significant rental income was generated. So now the contractors have their own income. That 's why they have continuity. So, the idea that contractors went bankrupt and then recovered is unlikely to happen again easily.
But there are always weak links. The weak links will fall. The weakest links will fall, and they will quietly sell off their assets at affordable prices . Just as the final owners of agricultural land emerge in the market , those who buy and sell real estate will eventually become the final owners of some properties.
He said that some dealers, or what we call corpses, would first do some restoration work on them . They don't buy old apartments anymore either. They are buying apartments that are a few years old . Most of them haven't even been renovated. They paint it, and then they leave. Unless the prices they expect are met, there is a high probability that they will become the final owners of these apartments, these houses.
Now let 's consider what might happen in the process in general . I honestly don't have many predictions regarding businesses. Because some investors got burned when shops were at risk during the pandemic . Some investors are hesitant to invest in commercial properties, such as shops or shopping malls, due to concerns about not being able to collect rent in case of a pandemic or other unforeseen circumstances.
It doesn't matter if it's big or small. Because they face serious problems when they don't receive rent. In terms of street retail, well, there are a limited number of street stores . Street-level shops, all of them in limited numbers. Therefore, their prices won't decrease, but rental rates aren't increasing either.
Let me give you an example. Two months ago, one of our tenants moved out after paying 650,000 Turkish Lira . And we've had a lot of landlords leave the property in the meantime. He said it starts at 650,000 lira. Okay, how much is this place worth, Aydın? My brother said he thinks it's worth 800-850.
He announced it would be released 2 months ago. They delivered it to us 20 days, a month ago. I removed the ad from the list at 900. There are currently listings priced at 560,000 Turkish Lira. And it has no customers. They also become candidates, but some are given the property ownership, some are accepted as property owners but the tenants withdraw.
So it seems like there's no increase there either. Of course, some shops still have high turnover rates and high rents. Specialized shops, because they don't come along all the time . I'm speaking in general terms, I mean shops that aren't unique or distinctive . The rent for a shop on Bağdat Street will not decrease, nor will its price.
But this has already started to happen in the side streets . The number of shops has also increased. There used to be no shops under the building , but now there are. Previously, the building was purely a residence. In order to prevent a reduction in square footage during urban transformation, the property owner also agreed to have a commercial unit underneath .
Because those trading units exist , because their numbers have increased, and because they have become involved in trade, those channels have now started to function. They are a shop now. They have tenants. Those streets are commercial now. So, there were very few shops 10 years ago. Several of them.
And right now, Etem Efendi, all the points connecting to Bağdat Street are purely commercial. Very high rents are being demanded. It seems to be meeting expectations. Let's not talk about this via Baghdad Street. Let's talk about another place. It doesn't matter. [clears throat] It's the same everywhere.
When buildings are renovated, commercial spaces are created on the ground floor . When buildings are renovated, the number of apartments increases, and consequently, the number of residents also increases, leading to increased commercial demand and the creation of new shops. But these don't have rent increases like apartments.
They're not in the apartments either. There are no rent increases for shops either. In places where we were discussing property transfers a year or two ago, tenants and landlords are now sitting down trying to reach an agreement, trying to find a solution . So rent increases have stopped in both residential and commercial properties.
It's not increasing. Is it falling ? Sometimes it falls. I said it's falling apart because I've experienced it. For example, post an ad on sahibinden.com. You can go through the listings and check the content. The challenge for property owners right now is n't getting the rent they want, but finding the right tenant .
Everyone wants to find the best tenant for themselves. Regardless of the numbers, it's about whether this should happen or that should happen . In the housing sector as well, figures that are 5% to 10% below market conditions are accepted. The offers are coming in that direction as well . Property owners are surprised.
Six months ago, the prices that could be considered a bargain, a buy-sell opportunity, have now reached levels that, given market conditions, are absolutely unacceptable; we're saying, "How could a property owner not accept this?" Everyone has different expectations for September. Interest rates will fall in September.
When interest rates fall, mortgage rates will become more reasonable. When mortgage interest rates become reasonable, buyers will flock to banks to take advantage of the situation. That's why some people say everything will be sold . Even if that were the case , we don't know if it will happen or not.
Even so, housing loan interest rates were very low in 2015, 2016, and 2017. It started at 0.80 percent. And house prices continued to fall. It dropped by 5 years. Interest rates were either rising or not rising. But mortgage interest rates were low. But nobody approached the houses, nobody let them in .
The entire buildings were listed for sale, sale, sale, everything was for sale. I remember that period, I think citizenship cost $250,000. We couldn't find houses for $250,000 because the houses weren't $250,000; they were below that price. He did not meet the requirements for citizenship. Will those prices return today?
I don't know. Will it fall ? I don't know that either. But as I said, the picture tells us a lot if rental prices aren't increasing, if they're decreasing . What we understand from what you say depends on everyone's own perspective. Because the economy is not just about buildings, shops, and apartments .
But the circle is n't just about economics, it's not just about interest rates . It's a necessity. It's a necessity in housing and commerce. These needs will always exist. Sales will always happen. Someone will inevitably operate a shop or residence to meet their housing needs or to conduct business.
These buildings will definitely be renovated because of the fear of earthquakes. Our story is about the numbers within this, the value figures, and which direction they're going to move. As a real estate expert, as a real estate consultant, or as a real estate agent, this is not something that concerns me .
Whether it falls or rises, I'm just a man who gets paid for my services. I am not a party to the profit or loss. Therefore, the contractor's downfall, the seller's loss , or the buyer's expectation of getting a better price—all of these are stories that contain their own stress and create their own narratives.
Our predictions are not about things that will benefit or harm anyone . Because the outcome will inevitably affect everyone. It will affect us too. We're all in the same boat. We live in this life too . We pay rent too. We dream of buying a house. We wish the prices were so affordable that we could buy nice houses too.
We also pay bills to shopkeepers or other places. Their increase or decrease is heavily indexed to rent. So if the rent for a business increases, its prices increase. If the rent for a property increases, its price increases as well. Even if their prices fall, it will be because they cease to be a burden on society, that is, a cost . That's all for today. Thanks.
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