저자: MichelleMarkey · 외국인
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결론: 빌 애크먼은 연준이 인플레이션을 잡기 위해 금리를 4% 이상으로 충분히 높이고 장기간 유지해야 하며, 그 과정에서 주식시장이 조정을 받아 저가 매수 기회가 생길 것으로 보고 있다. [애크먼의 경제·금리 진단] - 미국 경제는 여전히 강하고 완전고용 상태이며, 가장 큰 문제는 높은 인플레이션(CPI 8.5% 수준)이라고 봄. - 연준의 긴축 효과가 충분치 않음: 연준 대차대조표가 약 9조 달러에서 거의 줄지 않았고 금융 여건도 오히려 완화됨. - 연준이 금리를 4% 이상으로 올리고 12~18개월 이상 유지해야 인플레이션을 잡을 수 있다고 주장. [금리·채권 관련 발언] - 2년물 국채 금리를 향후 8분기 연준 기준금리 방향의 지표로 봄. 2년물이 10년물보다 높은 장단기 금리 역전 상황에서 경기침체 우려가 제기됨. - 대차대조표 축소(양적긴축)를 더 해야 한다는 입장. [주식시장 관련 발언] - 애크먼은 주식시장의 향후 방향을 명확히 말하지 않았으나 하락 가능성을 시사한 것으로 해석됨. - 연준이 금리를 4%+로 높게 유지한다는 사실을 시장이 아직 충분히 반영하지 못했다고 보며, 시장이 이를 깨닫고 나면 주가 조정 후 연준 금리 인하 기대로 강한 매수 신호가 나올 것으로 봄. - 인플레이션 기대가 통제되지 않으면 시장이 연준 역할을 대신하며 붕괴할 수 있다고 경고. 주식 매수자가 없다는 판단. - 단기 금리 인상은 장기 자산 가치에 긍정적일 수 있다(불확실성 해소 효과)고 주장. [애크먼 포트폴리오] - 2분기 보고서상 신규 주식 매수는 없었고 일부 레스토랑·레저 보유 지분만 소폭 축소. 넷플릭스 단기 투자는 빨리 정리. [출연자 전망] - 진행자는 애크먼의 궁극적 의도를 '주식시장이 충격받아 좋아하는 기업을 싸게 살 기회'를 만드는 것으로 해석하고, 이 시나리오를 대체로 수용함. - 단기 고통 후 장기 이익을 기대하며 주가가 낮아질 때 매수 기회를 노릴 것이라는 입장. [리스크·조건] - 연준 정책 실패 시 주식과 장기 자산이 타격을 받을 수 있음. - 금리가 예상보다 높게 오래 유지되는 것이 핵심 리스크.
다듬은 글
hey investor friends i'm michelle markey and as you can see i'm trying to change things up a little bit here by doing things like featuring this plastic plant and also sitting at a desk so you can see me wave my arms around more and i think that this stream of consciousness will help with my overall delivery and flow and so let me know what you think in the comments i'd love to hear from you what you think about this new setup and so today i'll talk about what i think bill ackman of pershing square capital management is planning to do in terms of his investing moves based on what he's anticipating the federal reserve's moves will be for the rest of 2022 and going into 2023 and i'll reflect on some interviews that he gave with cnbc in the beginning of august and september and also what he said in a series of tweets on may 24 because i think they clue us in into his investing strategy and approach and i think that it will be helpful for some of us who want to maybe emulate famous and really successful investors like bill ackman and also if you appreciate content on my channel i'd really love if you could please like and subscribe to it because i try to do my best to help educate us to be the best investors we can be and i really want to improve my engagement with you so thanks and you may be wondering what i mean by stream of consciousness and all i mean to say is that i'm going to give you more of my thoughts in a continuous flow and that means that i'm going to be using my laptop in front of me to tell you some of my reactions to notes i took from some of bill ackman's interviews that he gave with cnbc's andrew ross sorkin and the first interview was on august 2nd and andrew asked bill what he thought about the economy in stocks and bill answered that he thinks that the economy is pretty strong and he said that the question is really where is it going to be in the next six to 12 months and that would put us right around february 2023 to august 2023 and so i wonder where is the economy in the stock market going to be by then because he wasn't so forthright in saying where he think the stock market will be and i think that he's kind of hinting that the stock market could be a little bit lower than where we're seeing it now and he also said we're at full employment there's plenty of jobs wages are going up and the economy is very strong and he recently saw jamie dimon who said that the default rate has been at one of its lowest it's ever been for consumers and so bill ackman said that the consumer is well capitalized except for some of those lower on the rung that could be experiencing pressure from higher gas food and rental prices and so he thinks that based on this the biggest problem for the economy has been high inflation and it's roaring and it's continuing to rage and he said that the steps taken by the federal reserve haven't been effective and he said that since june with the first 75 basis point increase that financial conditions have actually eased enormously which you would think the opposite should be happening where you would think that things should be tightening but based on looking at the fed's balance sheet that was almost at nine trillion dollars it's barely gone down where the fed has only paid off about 143 billion dollars worth between june and august so far so clearly conditions haven't tightened that much and so that's why bill ackman thinks that inflation is still really top of mind as a big deal for the fed to have to tackle and he continued in saying things like how the stock market was up and it had been up by 11 or more and he said that looking at the two-year treasury was a good indicator of where the fed fund should be over the next eight quarters and he said that the fact that it was at about 2.9 percent in early august means that people only think that the fed is going to raise the fed funds rate by another 40 basis points from the current range of two and a quarter to two and a half percent up to about maybe three percent and then they think that the fed will have to lower it but since then the two-year treasury bond has actually inched up closer to about three and a half percent and it's been fully inverted with the 10-year treasury bond for a while like where the 10-year treasury bond was trading at around 3.3 percent the last i checked and that compares to the two-year treasury bond trading at about 3.5 percent a full 0.2 percent more than the longer-dated 10-year treasury bond which normally wouldn't happen and that's why some people believe that a recession could be on the horizon and then most likely the stock market will tumble alongside the u.s economy going into a recession and even though it's not official yet that we're in a recession i think that a lot of famous investors think that we're heading in that direction and so that's why i think that bill ackman's also being a little bit coy about what he thinks the stock market will do because i'm sure he's planning his own moves of what company stocks he'd like to buy when and if the stock market goes on sale enough for his liking and so i think that the activist and bill ackman is trying to go the federal reserve and taking more of a dramatic action to tackle inflation because bill seemed a little bit taken aback at some of jerome powell's comments during the summer where he quoted jerome powell in saying that the fed felt comfortable that it had now reached a neutral level of rates and he believed that that was an extraordinary statement considering we're in a world of nine percent inflation and even though it might have come down a little bit from there where consumer price index inflation or cpi inflation was only at about eight and a half percent in july i think that it might actually stay right around there and maybe tick up a little bit based on some articles saying that it could go to as high as 8.7 for august but whatever it is most likely it's still well above eight percent and in addition this is why bill ackman continued in saying that he thinks that the fed has to be aggressive in raising rates and get to something with the high three percent or four percent handle in terms of the fed funds rate as well as he believes that rates are going to have to stay at 4 plus for the foreseeable future of at least the next 12 to 18 months in order to kill this inflation and that would put us right around august 2023 through february 20 24 that the fed has to keep rates at four percent plus and he said that they may even need to raise rates higher and he said that the biggest risk to the markets is that people are not pricing that in so he thinks that the markets will get upset by the fact that the fed will have to keep rates at well above four percent and that sentiment has actually been echoed by cleveland fed's president loretta mester who said that she believes the fed funds rate will have to be in the four percent range throughout next year and he continued in saying that the fed has to take its foot off the accelerator which means that the fed has to lay off the money printer because it really has to pay down some of the assets that it has on its balance sheet because all that's really been is just fuel to the inflation fire and he also continued in saying that when you can borrow money based off only a two and a quarter to two and a half so for rate which refers to the secured overnight financing rate that's the base rate for borrowers and if inflation is at nine percent and it's going to be persistent then you're going to want to borrow as much money as you can and with the current prevailing level of rates that's just amping up the economy so if we think about this in terms of what everyday consumers might be thinking let's say you get a mortgage rate that's at five or six percent you're still winning compared to inflation that's still at around eight to nine percent because that means that the value of your debt is getting lower over time so really you're still making kind of like two percent on your mortgage which really isn't kind of normal and so he also thinks that that's why we're having as much inflation as we're having now coupled with some global factors of the slowdown in china and also the ukraine russia war and so all of the things that we're experiencing are not helping but it definitely doesn't help if the fed isn't being aggressive enough in its tightening policy and he also talked more in an interview on september 6 with andrew again and he also asked what bill thinks will happen with stocks in the fall and what bill said is that what you want to do is own the same companies as the beginning of the year absent what he said was his short dated investment in netflix which he gave up on pretty quickly and he also said that his biggest fear was inflation and that's why he wants the fed to raise rates quickly and soon and he believes that they're finally doing this now and he thinks that they have to continue being aggressive and what he thinks is that they're gonna do what they said that they would do and that's to raise rates to something that's in the order of four percent or maybe a little bit more in terms of the short-term rates and then keep them there for a reasonably extended period of time like going out a year or so then that would put us at september 2023 and he said that hopefully inflation starts to come off by then and he said that we're starting to see some indications of inflation coming off from the high levels we've seen but he really believes we're going to need rates to stay at 4 plus just to have inflation come down enough to what he thinks would be kind of more reasonable at around 4 inflation if not maybe three and a half percent and still coming down and so based on all this he's saying that the question is how far in advance does the stock market predict this kind of outcome of when the fed will have to lower rates when they think that inflation is more in line and he thinks that once people realize the fed doesn't have to keep increasing rates and that soon will be taking down rates then that would be a buy signal for the stock market and he thinks that if people see inflation coming down that we see a pretty powerful continuing trend that people will expect at some point the fed to ease but he thinks that they're not going to take rates of four percent and then see a good inflation figure and then start taking interest rates down and they're not going to make that mistake and what i think he means by that is that we're not just gonna raise rates to four percent and then all of a sudden maybe inflation is down to seven or six percent and then the fed will be like okay our job is done and then start bringing rates down i think that he expects the fed to keep rates at an elevated number for a long while and wait really until inflation is down more before they might really stop raising rates as much because according to this fed watch tool from the cme group they think that the fed might start easing the rate hike starting around march or may 2023 where they're betting that the fed might only raise rates to somewhere between 3.75 to four and a quarter percent and after that point they believe that the fed will have to lower rates again but based on what bill ackman's saying he's thinking that that's not quite going to be the case where he thinks that rates will stay way higher probably through the rest of 2023 and so with all that it begs the question what is bill ackman's ultimate angle here and what i think it is is that bill ackman wants the fed to hike rates high enough that it freaks out the stock market so he eventually has an opportunity to buy his favorite company stocks on sale because based on the recent second quarter activity of pershing square it didn't look like they were up to all that much and only reducing a little some of their restaurant and leisure holdings but not buying any new stocks and so i think it's telling what he said in a series of tweets on may 24 where i'm not going to tell you all of it you can feel free to read it at your own time but these stood out to me and what i think his sentiment is of what's going to happen and what the fed has to do and maybe the fed is living up to his expectations and maybe we'll have to see if they really do live up to what bill is expecting but i think that ultimately he thinks this is the way that things are going to play out where he said that inflation is out of control and inflation expectations are getting out of control markets are imploding because investors are not confident that the federal reserve will stop inflation and if the fed doesn't do its job the market will do the fed's job and that is what is happening now the only way to stop today's raging inflation is with aggressive monetary tightening or with the collapse in the economy and current fed policy and guidance are setting us up for double-digit sustained inflation that can only be forestalled by a market collapse or a massive increase in rates that is why i believe there are no buyers for stocks how does this downward market spiral end it ends when the fed puts a line in the sand on inflation and says it will do whatever it takes and then demonstrates that it is serious by immediately raising rates to neutral and committing to continue to raise rates until the inflation genie is back in the bottle stocks of real businesses are cheap once again markets will soar once investors can be confident that the days of runaway inflation are over let's hope that the fed gets it right and then later he said that some believe that higher short-term rates are bad for stocks i disagree the value of a long-term financial asset is the present value of the future cash flows it will generate over its life the more back-ended the cash flows from the asset the more sensitive the asset is to long-term interest rates which are used to discount these cash flows when the fed raises short-term rates it reduces the value of short-term assets like short-term fixed income securities but if the effect of the increase in fed funds is to subdue inflation and therefore long-term rates it should increase the value of long-term assets like equities until inflation is satisfactorily addressed investors don't know if and how long it will take the fed to quell inflation uncertainty is the enemy of markets particularly in the short term that is why i believe that the sooner and more aggressively the fed raises rage to subdue inflation the lower the risk of persistently high long-term rates and the greater the probability they stay low if this paradigm were to change because of policy mistakes by the fed equities and other long-term assets would be impaired the value of equities affects the cost of capital for businesses and plays a critical role in business confidence by raising rates aggressively now the fed can protect and enhance equity markets and the strength of the economy for all while stymieing inflation that destroys livelihoods particularly that of the least fortunate and so what i think this is basically saying is that we're going to need to endure some short-term pain for some long-term gain and this was echoed by what jay powell also said at jackson hole on august 26 when he said that we may also be seeing some pain and that the fed is going to keep with this job and basically stick to their tightening policy for as long as it basically takes so i think that finally the fed is starting to do what bill ackman is expecting and so i hope that even if this means that we'll have to deal with some higher than anticipated inflation for a while that will also accompany some higher than maybe preferred interest rates i think ultimately this will be for the better of everybody and so maybe this will give us all an opportunity to get into stocks when they're at lower prices and that's what i'm also hoping for eventually so uh let me know what you think in the comments i'd love to hear from you and if you enjoyed this video or learned something please like and subscribe and i wish you well on being the best investor you can be till next time you
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