저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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결론: 위대한 투자자가 되려면 남과 다르게 행동할 용기와 틀릴 수 있음을 받아들이는 겸손이 필요하며, 데이터가 많아져도 주관적 판단은 대체되지 않는다. 성공 조건: 평균 이상을 목표로 하면 어떤 선택도 평균 이하 위험을 동반한다. 따라서 틀릴 용기가 필요하다. 꾸준함 전략: 1990년 메모 속 중서부 연기금 매니저는 14년간 2분위에 머물렀다. 대박을 노리기보다 최악의 하위 꼬리를 잘라내는 것이 Oaktree의 접근이다. 생존과 겸손: 살아남아야 성공하며, 평균적으로 살아남는 것은 의미가 없고 나쁜 날에도 버텨야 한다. 자본 조달 구조를 나쁜 날에도 버틸 수 있게 설계해야 한다. 확신과 과신: 아는 것을 안다고 확신하면 위험하다. 불확실성을 인정하는 지적 겸손이 필요하다. 손실 중에는 겸손을 유지하기 더 어렵다. 성공의 함정: 성공은 자아를 키워 실패의 씨앗이 된다. 실패에서 더 많이 배우는 경우가 많다. 확신과 균형: 확신이 없으면 하락 때마다 팔고, 지나치면 틀린 믿음에 더 베팅한다. 논리가 유지되는지 재평가하는 균형이 필요하다. 데이터와 AI: 공개된 정량 데이터만으로는 우위를 얻기 어렵다. 질적 평가(CEO 자질, 제품, 회계 품질, 미래 예측)가 중요하다. AI 전망: AI는 데이터 처리·계산·감정적 실수 면에서 많은 투자자를 대체하겠지만, 사람을 만나 미래를 주관적으로 판단하는 최고의 투자자를 대체하지는 못한다.
다듬은 글
hey investor friends i'm michelle markey and today i've curated advice on how to be a great investor from renowned investor howard marks of oaktree capital management that he told to katie koch the chief investment officer of public equity at goldman sachs in june and he talked about the key attributes that you need to have in order to be a great investor and also an unexpected lesson about success that i found really stimulating and interesting to think about and so if you also want to be a great investor or at least a good investor please be sure to hit that like and subscribe button and also i hope you enjoy howard mark's wisdom in the following in order to be a great investor you have to dare to be great but then around 2015 i i said to myself you know but everybody dares to be great everybody's willing to be great and but it had it had come into another focus for me so i wrote dare to be grade 2 which i would recommend you read not one and and uh and i i said in order to be a great investor you have to dare to be different as i just explained you have to be willing to do some things that that are unpopular and by by definition will look crazy to to others you have to dare to be wrong because there's nothing you can do in the goal i think the goal in investing for professionals is to be above average it's investing is a funny business it's really easy to be average you just buy an index fund it's really hard to be above average but if you want to be above average everything you do in the interest of being above average exposes you to the risk of being below average you overweight certain stocks that's potential error you avoid certain stocks that's potential error you go you diversify abroad versus the us that's potential error you you buy high beta stocks low beta stocks et cetera you hold some cash there's nothing you can do in the interest of being above average that does not expose you to the risk of being below average so if you dare to be different you have to be willing to be wrong i want to ask you one full question on that around risk so and i actually want to go back to the very first memo you wrote october 12 1990 and i'm gonna just quick recap i might not get it perfectly right but there was you had an observation there was a midwest pension fund manager who is in the top couple of percentile i think well he was he was in every year for 14 years in a row he was between the 27th and the 47th percentile measuring from the top so he was solidly in the second quartile every year for 14 years in a row where did he come out for all 14.
fourth percentile it's crazy math because in most walks of life if you stick between 27 and 47 your average is probably 37 his average was fourth so what was the lesson that you and there's actually like really yet not really any other industry i can think of where you get around median over a long enough time at the top right so what lesson do you take from well and and then the job the reason i wrote the memo what made me write that first memo was the juxtaposition to some guy in new york who was running an investment management firm that had a horrible year because they were a value firm and they bet heavily on the banks which did it terribly and so he comes out and he says if you want to be in the top five percent of money managers you have to be willing to be in the bottom five my reaction was i like the first guy better i like i like the consistently a little above average as the route to performance which was the title of the memo i don't like this idea of shooting for the top and being willing to hit the bottom i'm not interested in me in the top five percent in any one year i'm absolutely unwilling to be in the bottom five percent and my clients feel exactly the same so why should i do that we don't swing for the fences oak tree does not swing for the fences consistent batting average and and what i say is if you look at the normal distribution read from from your direction most people say i'm going to get here i'm going to be i'm going to get into the upper tail i'm going to shoot for the upper tail i'm going to swing for the fences and i'm going to have these huge winners our approach is very simple cut off the bottom tail that's what this guy in the midwest did dave ben scotland was his name cut off the bottom tail so that if you cut off the bottom tail and your total experience consists of fabulous excellent very good good not so good so so but never terrible you'll be one of the best if not after not after one year somebody else will swing for the fences and and hit it exactly right and will be lionized for her performance that one year who can do it for 30 years and so i learned the importance of skepticism and the the great thing in life is to learn your lessons inexpensively as i did and one thing that might help someone with that is humility which is something you're a big fan of and that's a key cornerstone of our investment culture here yeah good you're also a fan of peter bernstein i believe and i just wanted to read a quote from him humility is an enormously important quality you can't win without it survival in the end is where the winners are by definition and survival begins with humility can you reflect on that a little further oh well that's that's a great quote from peter i have a lot of respect for peter bernstein first of all it kind of goes without saying but i'll say it anyway you can't succeed if you don't survive and one of my favorite adages is don't forget the man who was six feet tall who drowned crossing the stream that was five feet deep on average the concept of surviving on average is irrelevant you have to survive every day which means really that you have to survive on the bad days and so that's why i say you have to arrange your affairs which means you're financing your capital from your investors whatever it is or your portfolio so that you can survive on the bad days so that's that's one thing but humility it it's all about humility you have to you know dirty harry the said a man has to know his limitations uh mark twain said that that that when you're when you know something for certain you can get into big trouble it's absolutely the truth and um you know nothing in our business is certain and anybody who's certain is is is really missing missing the point so and we say something similar to how you say it which is that we always have to know what we don't know yeah and when you and i had that prep call we we competed with each other about how much we knew that we didn't know but you won because you've been knowing what you didn't know for longer than i'm not knowing what i don't know but you know it's uh i i wrote two memos in the middle of 20 in the middle of pandemic in probably june of 20 called uncertainty and uncertainty too talking about the importance of how uncertain things are the importance of acknowledging that especially to yourself we have to be honest with ourselves and uh and there's something called intellectual humility which i think is extremely important you know what that means intellectually familiar very simple the other person could be right and if you go into a discussion and say with this with the belief that the other person could be right you're going to have a much more productive discussion do you think just one last question for you on humility something we've talked about is um sometimes it's harder to be humble when you're losing actually when you're winning you can just you can be humble and it looks very gracious but when things are working against you sometimes it can be more difficult no i think i think it's it's hard for most people to be humble at any time because they're they're they have these defenses that that require them to overlook their flaws and their limitations and uh so you know look i think that thing about experience is what you got when you didn't get what you wanted turn that around what did you get when you got what you wanted if you look at a human endeavor i believe strongly that success carries within itself the seeds of failure and failure carries the seeds of success what do you learn from success i can do it i can do it again it's easy i can do it in other fields i can do it with more money i can do it alone it was me it wasn't a team and these are horrible lessons so i think the success teaches terrible lessons because it plays to our uh ego yeah and and uh you know i think you'll learn more from from your failures and and hopefully you learn humility one last question on this is that how do you balance that the importance of knowing there's incompleteness of knowledge with the fact that ultimately you have to make some decisions because you're managing people's money all these things are about balance if you assume you know nothing you can't function if you think you know everything you're going to get in trouble you have to strike a balance and and hopefully it's inappropriate think about confidence if you're an investor if you don't have confidence then every time you you buy something if it goes down you're going to sell it because you're afraid it's going to go down more and you're going to be a abject failure you have to have confidence you have to if you if you buy something it goes down you have to re reassess your thesis and and if it's intact you have to buy more or you can't be great uh but on the other hand if you if you have hubris and you feel you can't possibly be wrong and every time something goes down you blindly double down then you're probably gonna get into trouble and maybe be asked to leave the industry so but so you have to have this balance of confidence but not overconfidence uh humility but not over humility and then one um question for you just on pushing on this concept of knowing what you don't know so we have a lot more data now by definition than ever in the history of the world and on one argument you could say then that's going to help us know more things because we can prosecute this data and come to conclusions that we couldn't have otherwise done we can apply ai machine learning get new insights on the other side something we say on our team sometimes is a ts eliot quote where is the wisdom that's lost in knowledge where is the knowledge lost in information right where do you fall out on that are we harder look we have more data and we have more tools for analyzing the data but uh my son and his wife and family came to live with us for the first three uh months of the pandemic march april may of 20 and then um i wrote he and i actually he contributed but i wrote a memo in january of 21 called something of value about that experience because it was a great value for us to live together that time and and uh but he he pointed out something very valuable which was that you know buffett talks about having bought dollars for 50 cents and he really did because nobody else knew what which end was up you know uh i would say i bought some dollars for 60 cents uh i can't find those anymore and andrew made the point that readily available quantitative information about the present can't help you be superior as an investor or it's not sufficient to be superior you have to work with that stuff you have to understand it and process it but it's not enough because everybody else has it readily available and it's quantitative so everybody can process it and it's about the presence so there's no conjecture no uncertainty no vagary so readily available quantitative information about the president cannot hold the secret to being a superior investor there has to be something else and what could those things be you have to do a better job of uh understanding uh the import of those uh of those data you have to do a better job of evaluating the qualitative the quality of the ceo the quality of the product the likelihood that the company will be able to follow a successful product with another successful product uh the quality of the accounting whatever it might be or you have to be better at understanding the future so in i wrote a memo called investing without people in which i talked about what will happen with ai and and and so forth and and machine learning and so forth and it'll profoundly change our business and it'll put the hacks out of business but i don't think that it will replace the best investors because the best investors are the people i said in the memo i don't think that a computer can meet five executives and figure out which one's the next steve jobs i don't think it can look at five business plans and figure out which is the next amazon these are subjective judgments about the future not based on past data how's the computer going to get the information to make these decisions now what computers do is they handle a lot of data they handle it fast they don't make mistakes uh they don't make computational mistakes and they don't make emotional mistakes so that's a pretty good list that'll put a lot of people out of business in in in the investment business but it will not in my opinion make enable a computer to be the the warren buffett of of its day shall we say you
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