저자: MichelleMarkey · 외국인
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2022년 2분기(4~6월) 13F 보고서를 근거로 워런 버핏(버크셔), 찰리 멍거(데일리저널), 모니시 파브라이, 가이 스피어, 리루(히말라야캐피털), 빌 밀러의 매매 동향을 분석한 영상이다. 종목 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 거의 없고 기관 매매 흐름 해석이 중심이다. 버크셔 해서웨이: 2분기 자사주 매입은 약 10억 달러로 1분기보다 크게 줄었으며, 버핏이 4월 주주총회에서 매입이 4월까지였다고 언급했다고 추정. 현금성 자산은 약 1,054억 달러로 여전히 풍부함. 순매수 규모는 약 40~50억 달러로 추정. 버크셔 주요 매매: 옥시덴탈페트롤리엄 약 13억 달러, 쉐브론 약 3.6억 달러, 애플 약 5.5억 달러(140달러대 추정), 앨리파이낸셜 약 8.4억 달러, 액티비전블리자드 약 3.15억 달러(인수 차익거래 목적으로 해석), 패러마운트 약 2.65억 달러, 셀라니즈 약 1.8억 달러 매수. 매도 종목 다수. 마켈은 1,300~1,400달러대 추가 매수 추정, 1,100~1,200달러대 할인 시 추가 매수 가능성 언급. 멍거·파브라이·스피어: 데일리저널은 2분기 공개주식 거래 없음, 알리바바 지분은 1분기에 절반 축소. 파브라이는 사리타지 성장 부동산 매도 위주, 포트폴리오 약 36%만 투자 상태로 추정, 나머지는 현금 또는 비공개 투자로 보임. 스피어는 트위터 지분 전량 매도. 리루(히말라야캐피털): 알파벳(GOOG·GOOGL) 약 4.4~5억 달러 매수 추정, 애플·버크셔·마이크론·뱅크오브아메리카 보유. 알파벳 분할 전 주당 2,200~2,300달러, 분할 후 110~115달러 또는 그 이하에서 매수했을 것으로 추정. 105~110달러를 매력적 가격대로 제시. 빌 밀러: 2분기 매수 32종목, 매도 55종목으로 크게 약세 전환. 알리바바는 1분기 9위에서 2분기 1위(포트폴리오 약 5.25%)로 부상했으나 일부 축소. 포트폴리오 규모 약 18억 달러. 결론적으로 영상은 주요 기관 투자자들이 현금을 쌓고 저가 매수 기회를 기다리는 흐름으로 해석하며, 대상 자산 중 직접적인 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
hey investor friends i'm michelle markey and it's that time of the quarter where we get to know what some super investors have been buying and selling between april through june 2022 which is also known as the second quarter and usually investors that have assets under management of at least 100 million dollars have 45 days after the end of the quarter to report what their holdings are in a form called the 13f filing with the sec so a lot of people are tuned in to what some of these super investors activities have been because it can give us clues as to what the direction of some companies might be if some of the best investors are invested in them and it also gives us food for thought if we're also interested in the same companies and what might be some good stock prices to pay for them if we also want to invest in these same companies and so the investors that i'm going to talk about today include warren buffett for berkshire hathaway charlie munger for daily journal corporation monish prabrai guy spear lee liu and finally bill miller as to their q2 20 22 13f filings and also maybe what some of their other equity holdings might have been that aren't on 13 f's if they've had some international holdings so for the one that that pertains to i'm going to talk about that specifically but otherwise if you also enjoy following along with some of the best investors please be sure to like and subscribe to my video on youtube channel because i think by studying some of these super investors we're bound to become better investors ourselves so thanks and let's get into their 13f holdings and starting with berkshire hathaway that had the second most amount of activity out of these six investors i'm talking about today it seems like even though they were pretty active during the second quarter they weren't as active as they were in the first quarter this year and it looks like they're meaningfully slowing down and doing buybacks of berkshire hathaway stock where in the second quarter they only did one billion dollars worth of buybacks and i'm pretty sure from what i remember buffett saying at the berkshire hathaway annual meeting in omaha at the end of april that they only did buybacks until april so most likely i'm guessing that they didn't do buybacks much in may and june that it was mostly done in april when berkshire stock was still trading north of 330 dollars so i'm guessing when they put a billion dollars it was when berkshire stock was probably between 330 to 350 dollars and not where it was kind of going below where it went as low as about the high 260 range to low 270 range as we hit the end of june and early july but july is already part of the third quarter so i'm guessing that there wasn't much of buybacks at the end of june but rather more so in the beginning of april when their stock was pricier and also berkshire still has about 105.4 billion dollars that are in cash and equivalence that they can use to buy other stuff with so compared to the first quarter that only went down by a net of about 850 million dollars which means at the end of the first quarter they had 106.2 billion dollars so really berkshire didn't really buy nearly as much if you really think about it even though they still had some meaningful purchases and sells that i'll talk about shortly but overall i estimate that they had about four billion dollars worth of purchases in the second quarter and also about 1.4 billion dollars of cells in the second quarter and so if you combine the cells with the buybacks that's a little bit of a wash so basically i estimate that berkshire hathaway on the net may have purchased about four to five billion dollars worth of equities depending on how much the stocks may have declined in values based on the market values at the end of june 2022 but overall that's what we're kind of ballparking right now and so what this shows to me is that out of the stocks that berkshire bought they only had nine buys in the second quarter and six sells in the second quarter compared to having 15 buys and seven cells in the first quarter so even though they had less activity overall they still had a decent amount of buying activity more than they were selling but they did sell more in the second quarter compared to the first quarter so overall i think that berkshire is trying to slow down in its purchases because maybe they're seeing the writing on the wall with how inflation is hitting on companies earnings and even though they basically bought a lot of the same that they bought in the first quarter and they also sold a lot of the same that they sold in the first quarter i think that generally they're kind of just taking it easy and maybe waiting for more buying opportunities ahead and among berkshire's purchases in the second quarter the following are just my estimations looking back at what i'm guessing are some likely purchase prices that berkshire might have paid but some of this could be totally off or maybe around the ballpark of what they probably paid because i know buffett likes to get a pretty good deal and so berkshire put the most money into energy stocks where they put maybe about 1.3 billion into occidental petroleum followed by about 360 million into chevron and their favorite big tech of apple where they probably put around 550 million where they probably paid maybe in the low 140 dollar per share range and maybe buffett's okay with getting about a 22 discount from apple's all-time high of 183 dollars per share and that's a good enough discount for him and then they also put about 840 million dollars into ally financial a bank stock and also they put 315 million into activision blizzard so clearly they want to get more of that arbitrage deal where microsoft is probably going to be able to buy out activision blizzard so they went more into that one as well as they put another 265 million into paramount which is also behind cbs and other media properties and they also put maybe another 180 million into celine's which is a chemical materials company and they put some into mckesson and markell and even though with isn't that much that they put into markel what that signals to me is that they're showing a growing faith in what the ceo tom gainer is doing at markel and i'm guessing that they bought more of markel between the range of 1 300 to 1 400 dollars per share but there was some pretty on sale prices for markel lately dipping into the 1 100 to 1 200 per share range so probably if i had to guess berkshire might buy even more of markel in the third quarter and among the next three super investors i'm going to review they didn't really have that much meaningful investing activity if any at all during the second quarter and with the daily journal corporation that charlie munger oversees their investing activities besides reducing their alibaba stake by half in the first quarter they didn't do anything in public equities in the second quarter so it seems like daily journal is just waiting for future stock buying opportunities and knowing charlie munger he's waiting for a really good deal before he were to buy much in stock so there's nothing really to see there and then with monish pabrai he's basically mostly cashing out of saritage growth properties as that's barely a position left on his 13f filing and he left his micron position unchanged and according to ticker out of his eight positions on there and a lot of those are international positions he only had one additional buy in the rain industries holding that they had there and that wasn't that much and they had some reductions in a couple of their other international holdings in the nice holdings and also shinnoken group so besides the few reductions that monis probably had he also didn't have that much investing activity and it seems like his portfolio only has about 36 percent invested if he only is invested in about 275 million dollars worth of equities compared to a portfolio size that could be as much as a total of 750 million dollars which means that maybe 63 of that portfolio is either in cash or in private equity investments that we can't really know that much about unless you have some way of knowing so feel free to let me know in the comments but otherwise it's a little bit of a mystery what monash babri has been investing in lately and then finally with guy spear he didn't really buy anything so his 13-f filing just shows 12 stocks that he has but he showed no faith in whatever's going on with twitter because he sold out of that stock entirely so i guess he doesn't believe whatever story either twitter's management or elon musk is telling the public because he doesn't want to be part of it at all so out of all these guys what i'm thinking is that they're probably waiting in cash to buy stocks on sale in the future and with lee liu who is known as the warren buffett of china in the himalaya capital management's 13f filing we can only see the american equities that it holds and not any of the chinese investments but focusing on what it does hold as far as american companies are concerned we can see that himalaya bought a lot of alphabet stock in the form of its two ticker symbols goog and google where he bought way more in goog ticker symbol with about 333 million dollars worth to about 103 million dollars worth of google and so total that's at least 436 million dollars worth and it could be up to 500 million dollars that lilu may have invested in alphabet but overall it looks like that was a meaningful addition to the portfolio of about 1.87 billion dollars worth and even though it looks like there's six stocks it's really only five stocks and so lilu only seemed to buy google in addition to the other holdings of apple berkshire micron and bank of america and then if we look at what bill miller has been up to it looks like he's had way more activity than a lot of these other investors so it's sort of breathtaking how much of a diversified investor bill miller is but what i found very interesting was his position in alibaba used to be his ninth biggest position out of 88 positions in the first quarter and then that jumped into his number one position out of 82 equities in the second quarter even though he reduced a little bit in alibaba in the second quarter but overall it still was his biggest position at five and a quarter percent of the equities in the bill miller value partners portfolio which is really impressive because you wouldn't have expected that bill miller would let alibaba be his number one position but it just so happens to be and overall he had way more cells in the second quarter than buys where he only bought 32 equities compared to selling 55 equities so overall it looks like bill miller turned really bearish in the second quarter out of his almost 1.8 billion dollar portfolio so i found that really interesting to note as well what bill miller seems to be going in and out of lately and i also wanted to mention my guess as to how much lilu paid for the alphabet stocks on a pair share basis where i'm guessing he might have paid anywhere between 2200 to 2300 on a pre-split per share basis because google didn't split until july 15 and a 20-1 ratio so that's the pre-split prices and then if we're looking at it from the post-split prices that could mean that he could have paid between 110 to 115 dollars per share or even less than 110 dollars per share which i'm guessing would have been a pretty good deal because google seemed to bottom out at about 105 dollars per share so for those of us who might be wanting to get into alphabet stocks maybe we want to look at a share price between 105 to 110 dollars per share as maybe a good on sale price if we can get it at a price even lower than what lilu might have paid and so what do you think let me know in the comments what you thought about these super investors buying and selling activity throughout the second quarter i'd love to hear from you being the best investor you can be till next time you
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