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GTC 2025 전 Wedbush Dan Ives는 엔비디아 목표가 175달러·아웃퍼폼을 유지하며 AI 인프라 투자 사이클이 3년차 8~10년 buildout의 초입이라 주장. 빅테크 capex는 오히려 가속 중이며 AI 칩 수요는 강하다고 봄. 밸류에이션(20배 포워드 PE)은 역사적 저점 수준이라 매수 기회로 제시. 발표 직후 주가는 하락했으나 그는 장기 구조는 유효하다는 입장. 일부 출연자는 거시 불확실성과 관세 리스크로 단기 관망 입장.
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nvidia's annual GTC event is underway with CEO Jensen hang the poster child of artificial intelligence set to speak just in the next hour so let's break it all down with wed Bush's Global head of Technology research you know him colorful as ever Dan IES he has an outperform rating and a $175 Target price on those Nvidia shares uh notable bull especially in technology bullish as your outfit right now so let's talk about whether or not Jensen can deliver the goods at GTC this afternoon I think it's going to be a watershed event I mean I think when you hear from the Godfather B at Jensen he's going to lay out what demand looks like for Blackwell and ultimately I mean right now we believe 15 to1 demand the supply you know in terms of what we see of Blackwell it's about not just things like in terms of Ruben and others physical AI autonomous Robotics and I hear everything that Josh is saying but in my opinion we are in year three of an 8 to 10e buildout for the AI Revolution and that's why it's so front and center what we're going to hear from The Godfather of a Jensen you know in San Jose all right so Nvidia shares have now pulled back notably not as much as other Mega cap technology stocks have but a lot of it was driven by kind of the recent quarterly reports that have come out the fundamentals are very much intact nobody's going to dispute that but the question is relative to expectations and that's where Nvidia ran into some problems with its most recent numbers they're still growing and by a rapid clip but why are analysts then so much more bullish where they cannot meet exactly or exceed a lot the expectations that are out there I think it's a digestion period I mean I think we go through the next four quarters you're going to ultimately say I think Street numbers are going to come up 15 20% over the next few years I think buy side definitely is very negative here but this all plays out I think it's a stock that has a two in front of it because the AI reol ution by remember this by Deep seek in terms of everything we saw there with some of the Cinderella story in terms of some of the the fears in terms of Nvidia on the chip side there's one chip in the world fueling this it's Nvidia this is the cheapest you have been able to buy Nvidia stock since October of 2022 before the launch of chat GPT which set off the AI era so Nvidia in the AI era as the leading player in AI has never been a better bar than it is today the stock is uh the company has 52% growth expectations for this year it's now a 20 forward PE how insane is this market right now where they would rather buy Walmart at 30 some odd times earnings than this at 20 Walmart if they're lucky might be growing single uh High single digits this year I'd say in 25 years doing this it's I can name I count the times that have been almost the generational opportunities relative to what the Stock's doing that's where I think Nvidia is here think this is a a generational I because my view is we're going to be talking about Nvidia 4 trillion 5 trillion over the coming years despite near term you know in terms of political export controls everything else that's where this is going we're talking about two trillion of AI catbacks next 3 years there's only one red phone that you could call to get those chips it's it's you want to last you know you know what you know what he should announce at uh GTC how about a buyback I think that would probably do more good than any technology I me it's really at this valuation should be shrinking the float all right so speaking of the valuation kind of construct the Paradigm that we're in right now Joe if you look at the way that it's been described on the forward basis and and the valuation that's out there there there is a a balancing that's happening right now about whether or not it is the fact that the analyst consensus the forward earnings expectations for NVIDIA are relatively off or whether it's the price that you pay for those earnings that is relatively off do you think though that this is the equilibrium point at which the analysts are more correct when you project earnings out in the next year and is the market valuing those forward projections properly so unfortunately I have to give you an answer that is is not succinct and it is dependent upon the capex and the question ultimately becomes does the macro environment begin to arrest the capital spending on the bar on the part of those big players and if in fact that unfolds over the coming year then when you think about where Nvidia is I think it could has the potential to cheapen its valuation all right Dan if that is the case the people who spend the most money with Nvidia are hyperscalers these are the most ginormous balance sheets in the history of corporate world what does the capex picture change by how can it be affected by a hypothetical weakening macro backdrop yeah and Joe brings up awesome point I just tell you come back from Asia it's actually accelerate in terms of we see about 70% of that cback actually accelerating because it's an arms race other words you have 325 billion that's going to be spent by big Tech 100 billion year of a year you have you don't even have the sovereigns you don't have the rest of the world this is something where I actually think the street is underestimating cback and I get the point in terms of worries about macro I actually see more and more big Tech accelerating in terms of because this as this arms race plays out whether it's m&a from we see alphabet and others that no one is pausing they're actually accelerating and I think that's going to be the key and I think that's something you're going to hear from Jensen you on stage can I say one thing on this really quickly that I think is important it's not definitely the case that CFOs are going to look at AI related capex as a cost too high in a recession because we're about to have an IPO Clara is coming public Clara fired everybody and they're basically operating customer service on AI That's the story that they're telling at their Road show this might be like the poster child for how much money a corporation can save in Staffing costs using AI so it's not a foregone conclusion that a weaker economy necessarily means slashing capex they might actually look at this as a way to get through a recession I would say that when you're you're driving down the floor to go to the final four this is the jump shot you take 100 times out of 100 times buying Nvidia in this market at this multiple and I'll give you two reasons really you from the macro standpoint the survey data has eroded very quickly historically quick and that's the uncertainty that that's within the market right now that's the uncertainty that the administration's brought but I think it's been so quick of an erosion that that it's flushed out and I and you're starting to see that I think Atlanta fed GDP is going to swing back for a number of reasons and the other side is there's a bigger story yes there's competition with the llms and you're going to see new chap gpts drop it's going to be deep seek it's be something else there's going be another instance but it's bigger here where you're the robotics story you're also looking at the software there's no second this is this is their competitive advantage that's their mode so this is where I want to buy all right and what's clear is and you mentioned this in the near- term about chip demand I think there's going to be a lot of demand because every company I speak with they say two things one using AI has become much more efficient think about deep seek it's much cheaper to run now than it ever has been but their demand is up because people are finding new ways to apply this technology and it's finally making its way into the public that it wasn't in the past few years so that standpoint uh it really is a sunny outlook for Invidia and Tesla can capitalize that on that as well both from a robotic standpoint and self-driving and Jensen Wong as you can see there is taking the stage at their GTC event for his keynote speech doing a little crowd work and then perhaps playing a short video this will go on as Christina mentioned for potentially over an hour so we won't bring you the whole thing live but every time we get headlines that hit the tape and we watch the stock moves of course we'll be sure to bring that to you um and James is there anything that he could say here to change your mind no I mean I think nid is a fantastic company he's going to talk the demand up everything is great um as it relates to the longer term opportunities but right now there's just too many unknowns for us to go okay Nvidia is going to be the number one position in our uh portfolio and uh we got to get through the economic uncertainty uh to be able to do that because the thing about these companies is that you can beat on Revenue marginally you can be in line but that's not good enough right now because you do have air in those valuations and unless you can say with a high degree of certainty that you're going to beat by a large margin on revenue and there's upside to that you have risk of valuation uh contraction and that's what we're trying to avoid right although I take the point that um uh Josh Brown and others have made James where look if companies are looking to save for instance on labor if the environment is uncertain but they know that they can invest in Ai and kind of become more efficient that way could it actually be less of a headwind for a stock like Nvidia than we presume potentially I mean look they're at 25 26 times earnings right now it's not an egregious multiple I mean we're still in the stock it's just really comes down to a question when you think about it from a portfolio context you know how much weight do you want on the duration higher higher growth type names that can get hit disproportionately on a broader macro based selloff um versus more stable names it's just that fine-tuning that that balance within the portfolio to manage the risk over the current cycle but um staying cognizant of the fact that the growth rates are still there and should still be there and we should hear that from Jensen today but just over the next we have tomorrow to get through we have tariffs April 2nd you know there's just we got get through the next couple of weeks yeah and Alex I think investors want the bigger picture here um sort of for his perception of Chip demand and kind of call it the medium term when there's a lot of uncertainty around where the administration might go and cracking down further on their export controls to China or kind of looking at that Singapore Revenue Center and trying to figure out or or ask the company to answer exactly what's going on there yeah you don't want uncertainty if you're in big Tech clearly there's been a lot of uncertainty at the beginning of this year and we've seen a big decline Nvidia this year is down 4 14% already and you're right looking at export controls and examining Singapore probably isn't going to be good for the company because the conventional wisdom now is a lot of those chips in Singapore are making their way to China and have been behind some of the innovations that we've seen from China but I think if you look at it from a broader picture um I can tell you I've Speak to the tech industry every day and from what I see they are investing and investing hardcore uh in Ai and Nvidia chips we heard both open AI recently and Amazon say that they'll take as many uh Nvidia chips as they can or or an opening eyes case it was they were out of gpus so I anticipate the demand for these chips to be very strong and the AI trade to continue to be very strong moving forward all right we'll listen for detail on that on Reuben Blackwell Ultra this is like our list of buzzwords uh potentially as we move through this Christina let me start with you because I saw you earlier in the day out there with Jensen himself he was handing out hot dogs you were trying to get him to talk did he get you anything in terms of what to expect here what's he actually saying he was handing out some sausages with his pancakes and it was the full stack as they uh like to joke around here you know technical term but yeah get it get it cuz it yeah okay but what what he did say is that there's going to be a lot of surprises That Wall Street wasn't expecting and to be frank so I've been listening to the speech for the last hour and if you don't follow this company closely it is very technical a little bit more difficult to understand for somebody that's just you know a maybe Trading in and out of this name uh Jensen Wong the CEO did say that he is you know doing this entire speech unscripted no prompter uh one of the pieces of news that he just came out with is saying that they are creating an autonomous vehicle with GM so he and and I quote he said the time for autonomous vehicles has arrived and so that's why you're seeing mobile ey their stock is actually dropping on that News Mobile eye uh Intel has a big stake in Mobile ey mobile makes a lot of the autonomous design uh automation systems in the cars and so that's why you're seeing a negative reaction because they've just announced a partnership with JM news right now yeah I wonder what that means for Tesla as well we were just talking about Tesla in the last segment uh Daniel give us your sense I mean Christina is describing a technical Insider type of speech here is that what the market wanted to hear today the market was going to look for some reassurance that the Nvidia trade the AI trade expanded upon beyond the data center so over the last couple of years it's been all up and to the right even though the stock has sort of moved sideways for a little while Nvidia had clear momentum clear market share for the data center but over the last couple of Keynotes you've heard Jensen pivoted posture we're seeing over the last few days AWS Google and others talking about their own AI chip Ambitions we've seen open AI do the same as well as meta Jensen needed this keynote to come out and talk about Automotive it needed to talk about physical Ai and he also had a big part where he talked about Partnerships with companies like Cisco and expanding into the Enterprise because right now they have the data center Market it's growing and they certainly have a big position there but I think that's going to change with these new xus and he needed to show investors and customers that their technology is sticky and they're going to continue to lead the market so you say they need to expand beyond the data center Christina just told us they're expanding into the automobile with the GM deal that they just announced is that enough of a hook Daniel for for investors well they've been in automotive for a while and then they started to seed market share to companies like Qualcomm but over the last couple of Keynotes especially at CES and now here at GTC we're seeing Jensen shape his story a little bit differently and here's the important thing for investors is while we're in this kind of you know Panic inflection moment with tariffs and everything else is the AI trade is Rock Solid this trillion dollar of Market C of of expanded capex spend and it could be all AI chips this is a massive opportunity and even if Nvidia seeds a little bit of share in both Data Center and Beyond it has a big opportunity my take is its cars its humanoid robots its Edge and its Enterprises Jensen has been clear that that is there to be taken the question is whether investors are buying it I'm still looking for those proof points to show in the revenue but right now it's looking good that he's getting that story out there Christina anything you'd add to that I would say that you've almost seen a shift in tone from the CEO of Nvidia and it's become more defensive that their chips are going to be more relevant than the next step of large language models that encompasses reasoning and as you go up uh and it gets more and more complicated in terms of how they're training with synthetic data uh he wants the audience to know that they are going to be used for those processes why because there's a concern that all of the hardware there's so much money being spent at the moment and that eventually there'll be a digestion period and then that's when you'll have the cyclical nature of the chips world you know you know following through but to the point that was just made agentic AI this is a quote that's coming up from Jensen Wong as a result of reasoning is easily a 100 times more than we thought we needed this time last year if you don't understand even that sentence all he's saying is there's more compute required than initially thought and then that means there's going to be more demand for those chips if you believe that narrative in a few years that there's going to be a return on investment that everybody's going to keep buying every iteration of Chip coming out each year Christina what about these humanoid robots we just heard Daniel talk about that market and you know as another potential leg up for the future you know I'm waiting for my own personal C3PO if it can fold laundry and empty the dishwasher and all that stuff I will buy one uh but is that a real Market not within the next 5 or 10 years the same thing with uh Quantum Computing I'm sure he's going to talk about that and we know that last time we said it was about 15 years out and that created a negative reaction this time around I'm sure the the the choice of words will be a lot more positive but these are longer term goals and so for you know people that watch our Network they're focusing on more unfortunately the near term and how is this going to uh keep the the magnitude of the data center beats the earnings beats going and keep gross margins in the mid 70s which is still incredibly impressive for a company but I don't know if the humanoid robots will be an immediate source of Revenue within the next even five years and Daniel uh given that you know what do you think shareholders are going to focus on in the near term yeah I think uh they're going to continue to focus on how this data center transformation takes place I think this xpu GPU conversation I think Sundar Pai comments yesterday about the TPU in the New York Times I think WS cutting its pricing aggressively on its newest chips everyone wants to see return on AI investment that means consumption Kelly and right now the spend in capex it's pretty safe and I actually think Nvidia will continue to benefit from it but I give it another you know 12 to 24 months and if people aren't able to start to measure these returns on investment and this is where I think Jens is really focused on Enterprise really focused on new revenue streams because this capex thing could slow down but I think this deep seek moment this 100 uh I think it's a THX and I actually think it will continue to grow it's a good buying moment in my opinion Christina I'm going to ask you an unanswerable question which is part of the value of having reporters who are at these things is that you know you pick up on The Vibes and the mood in the room and sort of what the feel is at the place and you know you've been circulating around that uh that event all day how is this event different from what we've seen in the past are you picking up any change in the the mood of people who are there uh I would say that there's more people this time around and just based off of the difficulty of me trying to book a hotel room being priced at 1,200 bucks way more security hence the reason why uh we're outside as opposed to being inside uh in terms of celebrities last year I got a great video of Kendrick Lamar George Lucas um Ashton Kutcher all of them walking out of the stadium in a line and fortunately this year I'm not going to capture it I've only been told so far will I am is here in terms of celebrities in terms of the actual excitement from the people yeah had some meetings last night uh people are excited I just for our in those that are watching our Network and maybe trading on the name I think there's a little bit less excitement about how much can really change and with CES there's a lot that's already been fed into the market and possibly a lot that's already been priced in you can see the share down 3% now unfortunately um anything you've heard here that's either different from what you expected reinforcing uh your uh kind of expectations as a share sholder or what are you looking for that might be uh further uh to to build the case here yeah so the really interesting thing to me is that Jensen's already starting to Pivot away from data center if you notice we as soon as we started having the conversation following deep seek around whether there was still some there there as far as data center if we would start to see companies like Microsoft and Amazon and Facebook and others pull back on some of that capex that they promised in the data center space Jensen's already talking now about autonomous driving as if it's here uh he's already talking uh with other cell phone carriers about integrating the chips there instead of having them live inside of the data centers as a way to get to the mobile uh opportunity so I think what's really interesting is uh he's already forecasting out years ahead where he sees Nvidia still playing a real uh role as far as the AI Revolution is concerned rather than sort of resting on their Laurels and focusing on where uh AI is today and where that inference is happening in the data centers today um we should mention of course Malcolm joining us from uh from future proof down in uh in Miami Beach we didn't just interrupt your vacation or anything like that so that explains the backdrop uh Jean it it all sounds great if if Jensen is is kind of broadening out the scope and talking about all these nonata Center uh uses and and the runway he sees there but man this has been the cleanest cleanest investment story for the longest time right it's just like insatiable demand for those gpus Supply constraint you know the massive Revenue growth and is that becoming complicated here has he said anything that's going to confirm the revenue Outlook let's say for next year Well if you want to read between the lines there was a comment about Revenue Outlook over the next couple quarters he said no one should buy Hopper he laughed and said I'm the chief Revenue Destroyer my salese are going to hate me uh but he says that comment because he knows how strong black World demand is like there's no scenario where if he was concerned about where the business is in the current state that he would make that joke and so I think that that's one reading between the lines and I agree with Malcolm I think that the the bigger picture Beyond just one or two quarters the central question here is how long is this uh growth going to continue and that Bo that goes back to a comment that he had on their last earnings call about this hundred to million times more compute and by my count he spent a third of the two hours building his case that were still early in this uh buildout and uh he talked about those autonomous uh opportunities but I think the data center still is a huge opportunity for them and so I really saw this as uh him reiterating his belief that we're still early backfilling on some bold statements he made a few weeks ago I I guess Malcolm that's encouraging on the other hand I just do wonder if the customers here you know the big cloud platforms and everybody else that's you know spending tens of billions of dollars this year and more uh on trying to build out this infrastructure if they're happy to sign up for unending cycles of this in other words it's not like you there's no there's no time when they can essentially say aha we we built something it can now scale from here it it seems like uh it's a treadmill well I think the biggest challenge is they have to spend these tens of billions of dollars just to compete against everyone else who's spending tens of billions of dollars to be there right the risk of not building and spending the money to build out that data center is way higher than it is if you spend you overb bu and then you don't necessarily need the capacity that you thought you did so I think realistically the capex that we've talked about is baked in and is uh firm for 2025 regardless of whether we have a suspicion that maybe they'll want to dial that back later on I I don't think they can afford to I think there there's constant uh worry that my nextd door neighbor Google for example alphabet Google cloud is going to get there if I don't spend the money if I'm Microsoft to protect my moat as azure um Jean I have a a very vivid memory of of similar talk about this when it came to EMC back in the late 90s or Cisco or like I wish we could stop paying you guys for this stuff but we just can't and it worked really well but eventually the market might get a little bit antsy about the idea that it's not going to be sustained maybe that explains why nvidia's valuation has gotten compressed what's your take on on how the stock is absorbing all this absolutely I don't think it's absorbing it very well it is not absorbing it well essentially all these positive comments if you take Jensen at face value the stock should be meaningfully significant higher from where we're at potentially 30 40 50 100% higher and I think it really speaks to some of that scar tissue 25 years ago and investors just reluctant around what the ultimate growth rate is in calendar 26 right now the Street's at about 25% growth I think it's probably going to be 35 or 40% but I think at the core there's this again question around sustainability and I think that there are some very big differences between now and 25 years ago continue to believe Nvidia is in a good place the the question for investors is going to be number one immediately the The Narrative shifts to what are the hyperscalers going to say in in five weeks and second is every quarter that they don't get credit kind of pushes uh that that gets them closer to a point where they're not going to be growing at at 35% plus and so I think that uh that is one Dynamic will they ever get credit for it I think they will but they're not certainly not getting credit for it today Nvidia shares moving lower today one of the worst performers in the S&P despite CEO Jensen Hong's highly anticipated keynote address this afternoon at the company's GTC conference as expected Juan uh revealed new Blackwell Ultra chips that'll ship in the second half and Next Generation Vero ruin gpus for next year more insights and strategy CEO Patrick Morehead it's at the keynote joins us now Pat Uh did Jen Wong make the argument successfully between Ruben and Dynamo that price performance leadership will remain for the next couple of years so I think he said the right words there were no doubt and I think he did a very good job at it correlating uh tokens and cost per tokens and how much re Revenue you could derive uh from those but I think quite frankly uh investors want to see customers say the same thing they want to see a revision in the guidance uh to an upward uh basis to get higher levels of confidence so I can't help but link this also uh Adobe is making announcements that are AI related at Summit we've seen a step back from Apple in uh in apple intelligence for Siri all of this software would arguably create demand for the hardware running on Nvidia how does the demand picture look in the medium term uh for these chips that Jensen uh keeps executing on announcing on this yearly Cadence yeah I mean even Al even start short-term demand isn't great and you can look to Enterprise SAS companies and software companies that are trying to make money off of that there are what I would like to call Green shoots but there is still a challenged environment to be to monetize those Downstream impacts with that said we aren't to mass reasoning engines and I think everybody needs to be calm and collected until we get to those capabilities that truly could move the dial in particular agents but those take those take a lot of times for an Enterprise and even for Enterprise SAS company uh to implement with all that said I do think we have a good 12 months of Runway left on all that capex without the downstream economic benefits Patrick how much do you read into the fact that Jensen Wong plays a long game here um and what I mean by that is he's had a big economic moat around his chips and their capability and now we're starting to see more competition come into the marketplace but even as that's happening he's striking all these deals around Dynamo or 6G self-driving and autonomous vehicles industrial AI he's even Making Moves In Space right now and I realize or Quantum I realize these are these are Partnerships that may not come to fruition for a number of years but is he already building the next moat uh he is and you know if you look at this uh on a time scale right we go from Blackwell to Reuben uh Enterprise AI to physical AI to Quantum he is laying the groundwork for the next 10 years and if you notice he started heavy on Cuda and Cuda is that software moat that permeates every one of these long-term bets uh that that that he is making here and he he knows there's competition coming and he knows even at Rack scale uh the Silicon that an AWS a Microsoft a Google and meta are producing he will lose percentage share there and he's creating all of this these new opportun unities uh to make sure that that growth keeps coming out of nvidia's GTC keynote CEO Jensen Hong delivering a 2hour address today at the AI conference this afternoon he announced a new GM partnership and gave release timelines for the company's Blackwell Ultra and Vera Ruben chips but shares of the AI darling fell 3 and a half% during the session now down nearly 25% from their record our Christina Parts nois is at the event in San Jose she's got all the headlines Christina well the theme of this unscripted keynote for 2 hours was really about maintaining dominance in the face of increasing competition Jensen Wong reiterating data centers are still a trillion doll market cap by 2028 they're getting closer and closer to it but that's a number we've heard before as for the products you briefly mention it Melissa but we got the expected Blackwell Ultra for this year Vera Rubin for 2026 Vera Rubin Ultra for the back half of 2027 what you need to know is Jensen's fulfilling his promise of new Chips every year a question though still top of mine is will the demand follow Jensen Wong reassuring the crowd that next Generation AI will need a hundred times more compute than older models so think of it as him telling the audience customers will still need our chips for years to come but with large language models like deep seek using less Advanced Computing Hardware concerns still Linger on the magnitude of that demand other announcements new photonic switches to connect gpus inferencing software a partnership where you mentioned with GM to make autonomous vehicles negatively possibly affecting mobile eye which fell today a new Quantum Computing office the first customizable humanoid robot which can reason but those are revenue streams that should really have a minimal impact just over the next 5 years or so the speech was highly technical as Jensen Wong detailed projects already previewed many of them already previewed just over the last year or so so I guess the big takeaway was no major surprises clearly C to a technical audience rather than investors which may explain why the stock didn't really jump on all of these announcements Melissa yeah and and Christina as I understand there's a media call tomorrow so that Jensen his feet might be held to the fire a little bit more in terms of the question that has emerged since deep seek and that is are the hyperscalers really going to change has there been any sort of change at all in terms of expectation for the need for compute power which he did address in that 2-hour Keynote yeah he did but he addressed that same line in uh an interview on CNBC around earnings time as well uh and to your point the keynote the Q&A with the Press will be in the evening tomorrow so you may not see as much of a a stock reaction throughout the day but uh be rest assured I'll be there there'll be others and we will Grill him with questions all right Christina thank you Christina Parts Nevis down three and a half% I guess they didn't answer that question they they did not answer that question in two hours this is not granted for investors this is not a meeting for investors but still that is what has been dogging the stock not a meeting for investors but every investor is focused on the meeting so so it is a meeting for investors and I think you're right look Ruben looks like it's a second half 26 story I think Market probably knew that number one margins didn't come up robotics you know multi- trillion dollar industry potentially so he said all the things about the future and they're exciting but you know I don't think anything that's been concerning investors or Traders I don't think any of those concerns were swaged and I continue to think that you know they might talk about a re acceleration of margins in the second half I just don't see it happening so this move actually makes sense to me and this was not a scripted speech my understanding so this was a kind of a free flowing Dynamic and and to the extent that you could have just gotten a little bit more into uh where the new you know use cases and in other words moving away from data centers uh moving into there's talk about collaboration with GM on AI etc etc so uh the the trillion dooll addressable Market Market isn't really new um I I think if you look at the stock you know from that Jan 7th at least recent high it's been making lower lows so I mean we're going to talk about some of the other big Mega cap tech stocks but there's nothing on the charts that tell you that this this company is uh in in a safe spot and semis you know continue to look like they're vulnerable is Tim play hurt here guy well that tie would suggest playing something get wiissa told me she loves this wear more nothing as if that's not say nay nay um the fever's broken in this trade like let let's just be clear here right so if this happened a year ago whatever he said here with those throngs of people there who are really excited um the stock probably would have been up 5% we were looking through the options Market the implied move between today this morning and Friday's close was about 6% in either direction just think about that okay so when you think about what's going on here the expectations I didn't think they were going to be particularly High the company just reported a few weeks ago they obviously didn't say it any real big news for this sort of event and they probably knew that the one thing I'll just say this like lots of headlines when guy talks about margins not going up in the second half this year the information has an article out this morning that Amazon web services they're offering their own ship to Cloud customers same performances the h100 from Nvidia but at 25% of the price this is how any other semi company who's coming into the space they're going to compete on price especially if they have the same performance as the last gen sort of chips so to me listen the story's great okay they're expected to grow earnings and sales this year 50% trades at 25 times next year it's supposed to grow 25% expected you know trades it 20 times so if you're a valuation person and you believe what they're saying then the stock is cheap here but if you think that the fever's broken all around if you think that the economy is going to get weaker if you think their major customers are going to pull back in their cap backs at some point or diversify away from a single Source then the story is not that attractive right here so it doesn't really matter what Jensen Wong says I mean to to play the role of msilver linings on this TK and somebody else is not doing that tonight sorry I missed the fact that there is no new guidance after 3 weeks after reporting earnings maybe that is a good thing considering how we have seen confidence drop off a cliff in so many other Industries for him to stick by that forecast that wasn't enough still no that's I think you make a good point right there have every opportunity to back away the economy is slowing maybe cap a is not going to be as robust I think you're right to point it out but I also think the Market's trying to get in front of a potential slowdown and the potential for capex not to be as robust as things you know as many of these stocks have priced in I think that's sort of the rub right now Carter braxon worth how do you read the charts here what do you think well I think look Nvidia was the hold out right we know that the Philadelphia semiconductor index peaked in July here we are March of the following year and Nvidia finally succumbed so did aago uh broadcom course avgo but the point is that if you look at where we are in relation to uh 52e highs which is an important thing the S&P down 10% the tech sector down 1415 semiconductors as a group down 23 and the equal weight semiconductor index Out of Philly down some 30% so the irony or you pick the word the single most loved area within the most loved sector technology semis are now of course the opposite side of all that love something's not right the charts are not good and I would continue to reduce exposure how pervasive is the negativity well we had a real test case today didn't we today Jensen W perhaps the most influential CEO of our era gave his keynote speech to GTC which we all know as the Woodstock of AI but he said it's become more akin to the Super Bowl when you put 17,500 midians and friends the sap arena in San Jose you'd expect some sort of impact on the stock market or at least in the stock of Invidia but that sure didn't happen today we learn that nothing's more powerful than multiple compression as nvidia's stock actually slid $410 it declined 3.4% I say ouch okay I can see a be case here although I don't share my Chapel trust is a big position stock Invidia stock isn't cheap unless everything goes right and in this climate of Fe environment it's hard to see everything going right even for a company that is this special and oh my after watching today's keynote always you how special it really is just because 17,500 people get together to listen to Jens Mo that doesn't mean you're going to get higher stock prices sometimes the tape is simply against you end of story at the keynote Jensen delivered a terrific road map for his next Generation technology and vide is in full production for its most lucrative product the Blackwell and Blackwell Ultras on the way more lucrative we saw devices that will make self-driving much safer we saw devices that can reason make decisions that we can't make because we're humans and we can't figure them out we saw technology prent wildfires we heard about a spectacular partnership with GM to put AI in their cars and trucks totally additive he had some very confident things to say about the data center build up for AI which he sees reaching a trillion dollars surprisingly soon but those didn't matter today Jensen told us that he's gearing up for the next big thing in 2026 with a Vera ruin he likes to name chips after people and Vera rubin's the astronomer who discovered Dark Matter from Philly we know that business needs more computing power in the Ruben hasn't second after 27 we're going to have the Ruben Ultra with even more compute the specs were greed with oo and a he talked about how much energy these chips will save too he talked about personal AI supercomputers that can do everything humans can do and also play a good game of tennis yep 2027 but what do we care about Tera flops or stacked Electronics or Quantum photonics or de like today Tera flops might as well be cow flops then there are robots so many cheers so much excitement physical AI robots of every kind in every industry training robots require huge amounts of data blueprints built on Nvidia can make those robots work helping to solve The Chronic labor shortage in this country they will need so much compute that I can't imagine Jensen will ever meet the demand yes that's right the orders here are through the roof I thought it was Dynamite to watch they are coming they're around the corner but in this market nobody wants to wait for what's around the corner we're not going to take our well you know what we're not taking a rain check on even the greatest of robots which I saw today on the screen at The Kino so all these announcements from Nvidia might mean everything for the future but they meant nothing for the today new partnership with Disney and Google that creates whole new worlds that everyone love we heard about the announcement of Gro N1 hey that could be legendary didn't matter other than to make us laugh on a tough day you know what's most unfortunate I think Jensen W could have raised numbers there if you want you take them up big right that's not that kind of conference but he could have but you know what I'm glad he didn't might have meant nothing to stock anyway yes the invisible disease known as multiple compression is just that powerful and it really comes after tech stocks they tend to be very expensive VI stock isn't all that pricey but the expectations for the keynot were high so even though it was spectacular nobody's going to Care in this environment who else gets hit besides Nvidia how about anyone else involved with AI given that AI is so hard to understand if something is unknown and it costs a lot like a lot of the AI stories then its stock is going to go lower in a day like today just like everything in the AI complex has been coming down for weeks all right I hope you're all doing well and staying calm in this market B SNP finished the day about 1.1% lower and Nvidia finished the day about 3.4% lower in yesterday's video I mentioned that it wouldn't surprise me if Jensen revealed amazing new technologies today and then the stock traded lower as short-term Traders quote unquote sell news that appears to be what happened to Nvidia stock today and the rest of the market trading lower today didn't help either there was so much announced and spoken about in Jensen's keynote today that I honestly don't think I could recount all of it if I tried we learned more about Blackwell Ultra reuben reuben Ultra and the Next Generation architecture after Reuben named fan we learned about many different Partnerships including a partnership between Nvidia and GM to develop driverless vehicles and a partnership between Google deep mine Nvidia and Disney many things were said at the keno today but I want to focus on two important things that Jensen mentioned today because they are very relevant to Nvidia stock right now first Jensen showed a comparison between how many Hopper gpus Nvidia shipped to the four largest cloud service providers in the entirety of 2024 and how many Blackwell gpus they have shipped so far in 2025 this is further confirmation that Nvidia is Expediting manufacturing of Blackwell as they said they would on their most Rec earnings call and that is the reason margins are temporarily dipping into the low 70s to expedite the manufacturing of Blackwell later this year Nvidia expects margins to rise back into the mid-70s as Blackwell ramps that is good news the second thing I want to mention from the kyot today has to do with deep seek I am so tired of people in the financial press pretending that deep seek is a problem for NVIDIA when Jensen has so clearly explained on multiple occasions that this is not at all the case as I have said numerous times on this channel deeps models are actually a good thing for NVIDIA as their models help Drive increased demand for nvidia's products Jensen highlighted that reasoning models like deep seeks are actually drastically increasing the need for more compute which effectively means more Hardware from Nvidia he did this today by sharing an example at the kot a prompt was given to a traditional large language model which quickly generated a short and incorrect response to the prompt this required 439 tokens that same prompt was given to deep seeks reasoning model R1 which generated a far better correct response to the prompt that generation required more than 8,500 tokens 20 times more tokens and 150 times more compute in other words reasoning models like deep seeks go through many more steps in order to give thorough and well thought out responses to prompts this is different from a traditional llm that just blurts out a partially correct response because of the additional steps that reasoning models such as R1 take in order to generate a response more compute and therefore more Nvidia Hardware is required do you see why I'm so frustrated with the media's portrayal of deep seeks impact on Nvidia deep seek is actually fantastic news for NVIDIA it drives down the cost to operate the model and therefore makes it accessible to more people while at the same time increasing the need for more compute I.E more Nvidia gpus bear this in mind when deep seeks new model is released sometime in the very near future because it would not surprise me to see the talking heads in the financial media panicking like crazy incorrectly claiming that deep seeks models are bad news for NVIDIA when in reality deep seeks models are great for NVIDIA there is honestly so much to digest and unpack after listening to Jensen's keynote today I honestly think he did a great job and I'm sure we will have a lot more to talk about in the very near future remember that tomorrow morning is the financial analyst Q&A at GTC starting at 11:30 a.m.
eastern 8:30 a.m. Pacific before we end this video I'll leave you with this updated road mapap we were given today for invidious data center products Blackwell Ultra launches in the second half of this year Reuben in 2026 Ruben Ultra after that and later on the new generation named Fineman probably in 2028 I don't know how the market will react in the short term to this event but regardless of the short-term reaction I still think the long-term thesis surrounding Nvidia remains firmly intact and that it is even stronger considering what we learned today in the short term we will likely have more volatility as the macroeconomic situation unfolds but from a long-term perspective I am still bullish on the future of video remember to stay calm in this market remember to maintain a long-term perspective and do not make any Hasty or irrational decisions he
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