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Since January 1st, China has begun to restrict its supply of silver to the global market. It doesn't seem like the end of the world. Until you realize that every car, every mobile phone, every solar panel needs money, and now there is less, much less. Do you know what money has? It has no other metal.
It is the most conductive material on the planet, more so than gold and copper. It's in everything, from the light switch in your house to the panels that are supposed to save the world. But there's a problem: we're using more money than we're producing. 80% of silver is not found alone; it comes attached to other metals, and when it is found, it takes between 12 and 15 years to produce its first ounce.
Do you get it? It's like knowing you're hungry and that you'll eat the freshly sown bread in a decade and a half. And on top of that, China sells silver for more in its own country than in the West. So we found that the big players buy cheap in London and New York and resell it in China. That means they take the metal and leave us without stock.
Meanwhile, stocks are falling and manufacturers are already looking for a replacement. Even Elon Musk said the outlook is messed up. Between 100 and 250 million ounces are missing. And that's not the worst part. The worst part is that some say that for every physical ounce there are 378 pieces of paper saying, "I have one." And now comes the masterstroke.
Not only is China selling less, it now requires a special license to export silver, and the condition is to produce more than 80 tons per year. Who can do that? Only large, controlled, audited Chinese companies. That means anyone who isn't from here does n't play. China manufactures 80% of the world's solar panels, and a good portion of electric cars require money; if that money stays in China, their products become cheaper and ours more expensive.
This is not a metals crisis, it's an economic war and we're losing. The price has already skyrocketed. $80 an ounce, 170% more than last year. And it's no coincidence; traders are paying an extra 7% just for having the money now, not next year. Do you know why? Because they know that every day without money is a more expensive day.
And this has already happened. There was a similar crisis in 1979. Expensive oil, inflation. geopolitical tension. The silver went up into the clouds and then crashed. Today the scenario is worse: more demand, less supply, and a world power turning off the tap. So the question is, is it too late to invest?
Depends. If you think the world is going to use less technology, fewer electric cars, less solar energy, then you are late to the party. But if you think the future is still about money, this is just the beginning. This is a real lack of material. Manufacturers are cornered. Every chip, every battery, every new car needs money and they can't stop.
So they'll pay whatever it takes, and when the cost of manufacturing goes up, the final price goes up too. Get ready to pay more for everything, from a mobile phone to a washing machine. And it's not because there's inflation, it's because there's a lack of money. This is no longer just about investment, it's about access, about being able to manufacture, sell, and compete.
And now imagine that 70% of that power is in the hands of a country that decides when to release it and when not to. China is not defending its economy, it is preparing its advantage. They control production, they manufacture solar panels, batteries, electric cars, and now they also control the pace of supply.
They produce more cheaply. The rest of the world watches and pays. But that's not all; they also retain the ability to negotiate. Do you want chips? Technology, components. Stop by Beijing and ask if they're in the mood, because this goes beyond metal. Silver is key in artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and even military defense.
The banks know this too and are buying, but they're not saying so. They do it through ETFs, securities that promise money, but often have nothing behind them. It is estimated that for every physical ounce there are 378 pieces of paper saying, "I have one." Do you know what happens if everyone gets paid at the same time?
There's no metal for everyone. Someone will be left empty-handed, and it won't be the big players. The big players have already bought, they've already made their move. You keep looking at the price. They're already inside. And meanwhile, supply falls, demand rises, and you're still waiting for it to be on the news.
But by the time it comes out, it will be too late because the market rewards those who move first. The future is not written, but the pieces are already on the board. Scenario one. Demand continues to rise; there's no way to meet it. The price skyrockets, not because of speculation, but because of real scarcity.
Scenario two. Someone manages to negotiate with China. Exports open up , pressure falls, and the price stabilizes. Scenario three. There is an alternative to using silver, copper perhaps, but it is not the same. It doesn't drive the same. And then there's the scenario that nobody talks about: a global race to hoard strategic metals, with silver becoming just another weapon, like gas, like lithium, like everything else the world needs and a few control.
In 2025, the world consumed 1.24 billion ounces of silver, but only 1 billion were produced. There is a deficit of 240 million ounces and meanwhile the mines cannot keep up. 80% of the silver comes as waste from other mining operations. Only 20% comes from dedicated mines, and opening a new mine takes 12 to 15 years.
That's no longer a supply problem, it's a global bottleneck. And the difference between having money and not having it is starting to be felt in every factory, every price, every product. Many look at the current price and think it's too late, but in 1980 silver reached $50 adjusted for inflation. That would be 150 today.
In other words, we haven't even reached the peak of 45 years ago and we are seeing that today money is not a luxury, it is a necessity.
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