저자: CNBC Television · 외국인
요약 보기
지난 Fed 결정에서 해먹 클리블랜드 연은 총재와 쿡 이사는 0.25%포인트 금리 인상에 찬성하며 반대표를 던졌다. 전 리치몬드 연은 총재 제프리 라커는 물가 상승률이 3~3.5% 수준에서 오래 머무는 상황에서 연준의 긴박감이 부족하다고 평가했다. 그는 일부 물가 지표가 새로운 충격보다 과거의 잔재와 공급 측 요인을 반영한다고 보면서도, 명목 GDP가 2% 물가와 양립하는 수준을 크게 웃돌며 성장하고 있다고 지적했다.
다듬은 글
Two Fed officials dissented in favor of a quarter point hike on Wednesday at the Fed's latest decision. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammock and Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook, making her the first ever descent since joining the board of governors in 2022. And with inflation still above the Fed's 2% target, what do those descents tell us about the debate?
I think Wor said it was a good family fight. I I have been through a few of those, that means it was, you know, and the path for rates. Joining me now are two people who know that debate from the inside. Jeffrey Lacer, former Richmond Fed President and James Bullard, the former St. Louis Fed president.
It's really great to have you both here. Thank you for your time. Uh, President Lacer, just starting with you. You've been a big supporter of Warses kind of as he's um taken the helm. Um, but you I think you had a little bit some some questions about why they didn't hike on Wednesday. Is that right?
Yeah. So, I've been surprised at the lack of urgency. Inflation's been high around three three and a half% for so long. Um I I would have thought that before now earlier this year they would have questioned the presumption they seem to have had in this whole episode about inflation coming back to 2% rapidly and taken stronger action with more elacrity.
U maybe they'll come around in the next couple of meetings, but I've been surprised at the lack of urgency. I I don't know why I feel a little stuck on this point. I want to hear what you think that and there are some measures of inflation that look like what we're dealing with is more a relic than it is necessarily an impulse of inflation that's still to come or a little bit of supply side.
Um, broaden out your sense of inflation if you could, especially here at a conference where they're trying to do that. I mean, it's it's clear that what we have falls a little short of understanding where future inflation is going. What would you say are the best ways to tell? Are they market based?
Are they datab based? you know, is it the beige book? I mean, what what what helps inform your sense of inflation is going to still be a problem, let's say, a year from now? So, the breadth across categories is one thing, but then you look at nominal spending, nominal GDP. Those figures are growing well above rates that are consistent with 2% inflation.
So, you get the sense that there's just more dollars being spent than the economy can supply a 2% in price growth. it needs 3% supply growth in order to supply that many dollars with what they're asking for. And you mentioned this, President Bullard, earlier. You said nominal GDP targeting you thought might play a bigger role in the future.
Yeah, I think it could. Uh it it's uh been always around, I would say, in the academic literature and in the policy discussion, but it's uh maybe it's time to take more center stage than it has historically. But isn't it as hard to for, you know, all targets imply a degree of forecasting when you're trying to think about how we're getting from here to there?
How do we do that? I mean, how that that's still kind of hard to do. Well, uh, the Fed devotes a lot of resources to forecasting. I always kind of think that there's a good forecast. There's as good a forecast as you can make at a point in time. I think they're probably pretty close to that, but there's a certain amount of ambient noise in the system and and you're never going to be able to get rid of that.
So I think um you do the best you can and and you try to make the best policy you can based on the forecast. Steve Myin has recently been talking again about the balance sheet or maybe monetary agg I guess there's these like Delaria aggregates that try to do a better job than just M2 measures but do we need something more like that as there's still people in the crypto world for instance who talk a lot about M2.
M2 is just an imperfect measure of the kind of thing we're trying to get at. So do we need updated measures of that or do you think this is all a 1970s? You probably do need to update. That's why it's a good time for the community to review this kind of stuff. I think you've got private money issuance for instance that you didn't have in the past.
Uh and you've got uh other types of nominal assets being issued all over the world. So uh I think it you know it a lot of that needs a rethink. You can't just go back to uh the way we thought about it in the in the earlier era earlier postwar era. Do you have a a point of view on the decision to skip a meeting this week?
Uh I don't think skipping a meeting is a good idea. I think you want to keep optionality and you know it's better to think about having a meeting and doing nothing and and just saying nothing happened. We're done not doing anything. I think that's a perfectly fine way to go. But uh if you don't have a meeting and then it's a pretty volatile world and you have to act that you're going to have to call a special meeting in that circumstance which you can do.
It is. It is possible. But boy, it's going to be it's going to be a lot of volatility if you have to do that. Yeah.
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