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hey welcome back to super guys great socks i'm dylan and i'm vinnie and today unfortunately we did not get some great news uh charlie munger daily journals 13f came out and uh was not what i was expecting unfortunately it looks like maybe his convictions are not so strong in alibaba great news uh if you like this kind of entertaining soccer content and apparently me and vinnie's portfolio crashing uh give us a like and subscribe and we'll get started here all right this is kind of the the news that broke towards a later portion of the day uh the 13 f filing which is a quarterly filing of all u.s held securities came out for the daily general corporation of which charlie munger warren buffett's you know right-hand man is a control is the controller of it looks like they don't really make a hole on a lot of moves if you haven't been following them for too long but over the last about a year they've been accumulating shares in alibaba group uh in particular the ads american depository shares of alibaba of which dylan and i both also own um but this is the first time we've seen him uh trim this position back he had been kind of basically doubling down as each quarter succeeded and now he cut back 50 of his position unfortunately it would be interesting to know like when this happened because three the prior quarter he was actually using margin to buy even more and like i wonder if it hit 70 what it did and he got spooked and which i don't know he shouldn't get spooked he's like 98 and been doing this for 70 years so that's probably not likely uh but i wonder if that has anything to do with it that's a good thought yeah exactly maybe you got margin called maybe one of the greatest investors of all time that margin called you know it's kind of crazy but it can happen i guess so this is actually we're looking at last quarter you know he had doubled his position adding 300 000 shares uh in comparison to you know now this this particular quarter he he trimmed all that back in a little bit more uh so basically he got rid of the last doubling by removing this 50 of his position a little bit over 300 000 shares american depository shares so he's still got 16 million in it right yes the other interesting thing that i wanted to point out here is as dylan mentioned the margin debt so as of the last quarter they had about 37 million dollars in margin debt yeah i know yeah levered up a little bit they had actually closed out um their long-held position in byd chinese electric car manufacturer uh at a 15 bagger basically he made 15 times his money back and then invested which is phenomenal right yeah that's ridiculous okay yeah well we were we're all hoping that he was about to strike lightning again and roll that by d15x into a nice alibaba 10x maybe i don't know but unfortunately uh we'll see um you know maybe his confidence is a little bit shooken now after he saw the 70 dollar price range on alibaba i'm hoping because this sucks yeah i know right so this is the year-to-date chart of alibaba you know flat slightly negative trend nothing like super crazy uh you know other than this this massive move up here after it had dipped down to the 70s you don't really know when in this time period is sold um well wisdom generates basically expected average cost basis um and like you know end of end of quarter prices so you can kind of use it as a range but it's not really concrete stuff but i ran some numbers based upon that so look at how much charlie munger may have lost in this position um so according to willow wisdom he had about 155 per share cost basis the quarter first quarter of 2022 just closed at a share price of 108 for alibaba it's actually since come down a little bit further um and his 300 000 shares sold during that time period if you you do that math there and looking at like 40 a share times 30 000 shares it looks like charlie munger may have lost about 14 million dollars on this trade that's not accounting for any margin stuff and that also does not tell me exactly when he sold it because we don't know that information yeah because if he sold the 70 he would have lost like 30 million it would have been more significantly more that that's without a doubt i could say that so yeah even uh even the greatest investors of all time sometimes uh take a little bit on the nose the question is like why did he do it like and does it matter for us um you know potentially could have converted some of the hong kong shares don't really know unfortunately you know the american security laws don't require them to disclose if they're holding a non-us-based investment you know maybe you just deal everything a little bit you know not unreasonable given the fact that we're seeing all this monetary uh tightening with the fed um you know now uh in particular you know yeah now we've seen this alibaba kind of like uh being used as a little bit of a pawn between the sec and the the chinese equivalent tactile is harvesting maybe like one is for bride i don't know it's not the right time of year but it's not the right time of year we're past it yeah unless possibly what if he you know it hit 70 and baba so he sold half and then bought like jd or something because then you realize the loss and you get into another company that will likely do quite well that is a thought for sure uh back to the deal everything in point two by the way you know maybe he just eliminated that 37 million dollars and you know kind of basically a margin on his account because you know like i said it's kind of uncertain times with this fed tightening and mortgage rates going up significantly um the last point here is kind of the scariest one to me right maybe he realized that he was just wrong and so are we i refuse i will burn down just like fubo i will watch the ship take fire i might buy more just to be spiteful well you know this news came out i want to say just after hours today and i did not see any real movement on it so like i i don't know if this is it i lost like a nothing burger as far as like uh actual stock price movement i mean still a considerable investment like i said yeah i had been kind of continuing to double down his convictions and even going into margin which is you know a little bit of a ballsy move let's just call it what it is uh so maybe he just realized that was probably not the best idea but yeah who would use margin to to buy more like who would do that i mean god okay it's happening everybody stay calm what's the procedure everyone what's the procedure yeah you resemble michael scott actually you kind of resemble michael scott i can see it i'll take it i mean no god please no no so great god all right guys we want to hear your thoughts on this one you know does this change your kind of investment thesis and all that you decrease your position size as well i don't know for me personally still staying put for right now we'll see i have my my theory on what's going on as far as like uh long-term prospects for alibaba and i haven't seen anything that you know outside of what i expected yet so i just don't want the price to hit what's that tyler's one of our 50 yeah one of our uh our dudes who messages a lot he's waiting for a price talking to 50 and a person person's like never then hit 70 it's like this he's gonna get it and he's like i might have to buy something all right guys let's get to the next one
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