Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger: Where To Invest $1 Billion (China & Emerging Markets Vs. America)

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결론: 10억 달러가 있다면 미국 시장에서 기회를 찾겠지만, 중국 등 신흥시장도 충분히 기회가 있다는 입장. 투자 자금 규모 문제 버핏은 규모가 문제라며 소액이라면 더 작은 시장에서도 기회를 찾을 수 있다고 설명. 미국 우선 원칙 이해하는 범위가 넓은 미국 시장(약 30조 달러)을 먼저 살펴보는 것이 기본 방향. 과거 한국 투자 경험 15~20년 전 주말에 한국 소형주 목록을 훑어 통계적으로 저평가된 종목 15~20개를 사서 일부 보유한 사례 언급. 소형 시장의 리스크 작은 시장은 시장 체결, 세금 등 실행상 어려움이 많고 미국·중국·영국 등 주요 시장 밖에서는 기회가 적을 것이라는 신중한 견해. 중국 시장 평가 멍거는 이미 중국 주식 비중이 버핏보다 높다고 언급. 버핏도 중국에 기회가 많고 미국 투자자보다 유리한 사냥터라는 데 동의. 시장 효율성 전망 중국은 젊은 시장이라 비효율성이 많지만 성숙하면서 효율성이 높아질 것으로 봄. 일본 워런트 가격 왜곡 사례를 들어 신흥시장에서 이상 현상이 생길 수 있음을 설명. 특정 종목 추천 없음 구체적인 종목명이나 가격·목표가·기간에 대한 언급은 없음.

다듬은 글

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01. hi good morning mr buffett and ms monger my name is stephy u from horizon insights a china focused research firm based in shanghai so i have a lot of mutual fund clients in china who are very young relatively younger and they manage a smaller portion of funds so my question is if you only have one billion dollars in your portfolio today how would you change your investments would you consider more investment opportunities in emerging markets such as china thank you yeah i would i would say if if i were working with a billion i would probably find within a 30 trillion dollar market in the united states where i understood uh things better just generally than i do around the world i'd probably find and find opportunities there that would be better incidentally by some margin than what we can find for hundreds of billions uh but i wouldn't there's no way i'd rule a lot of emerging markets there was a time 15 years ago or so uh when just because it was kind of interesting and it took me back to my youth i on a weekend i went through a directory of korean stocks and i i bought and these were small stocks uh well they were small by standards of of either korean or american business they were big big companies but i found 15 or 20 and they were statistically cheap and bought some of each one myself and and there are opportunities with smaller amounts of money to do things that we just can't do and but i my first inclination always would be to comb through uh things in the united states and and uh but i'd come to them in other countries i probably wouldn't get into buried very small markets because there can be a lot of difficulties even in market execution and taxation a lot of things you can find if you can't find it in you know in america and china and britain and a few other places you probably aren't going to find it someplace else you may think you found it but there may be it may be a different game than you know our problem is size not geography charlie well i already have more stocks in china than you do as a percentage so i'm with the young lady okay well you can you want to name names or these stocks have names or no i don't carol um this question i should just add one thing you will find plenty of opportunities in china charlie would say you've got a better hunting ground than even a person with similar capital in the united states would you agree with that yes i do yeah yeah so and in a sense it's logical that should be the case because it's a younger market as but still a large market so that that markets probably work toward efficiency as they age japan had this very strange situation with warrants being priced out of line and all of that 30 years ago and it people notice after a while it disappears but there can be some very strange things happen in in marcus as they develop i think you'd agree with that charlie when you absolutely yeah