U.S. economy is weakening faster than expectations, says Mohamed El-Erian

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결론: 미국 경제는 침체 여부와 무관하게 예상보다 빠르게 약화되고 있으며, 연준은 인플레이션과 둔화 사이에서 딜레마에 놓여 있다. 경기 판단: 엘-에리언은 2분기 GDP 마이너스 두 분기 기준은 인정하지만 자신은 침체라고 단정하지 않는다고 말했다. 재고 항목이 크게 기여해 수치를 왜곡했고, 무역 항목은 반전됐으며, 국내 최종판매는 사실상 0%로 국내 경제 둔화가 분명하다고 봤다. 침체 판단은 NBER 등 기관을 기다리겠다고 했다. 전문 기준: 침체 여부는 둔화가 지속적(prolonged)인지, 뚜렷한지(pronounced), 광범위한지(pervasive)로 판단해야 하며, 단일 분기에서는 이 세 조건이 확인되지 않는다고 봤다. 고용·데이터: 실업수당 청구 등 데이터는 예상보다 훨씬 빠른 약화를 보여준다고 평가했다. 연준: 공식 메시지는 인플레이션이 여전히 너무 높고 노동시장이 매우 타이트하니 긴축을 계속한다는 것이지만, 비공식적으로 금리가 중립 수준에 와 있다는 발언도 있었다. 두 메시지 중 무엇을 보느냐에 따라 결론이 달라진다. 인플레이션 전망: 헤드라인 인플레이션은 내려가겠지만 경기 약화 속도를 감안하면 충분히 빠르게 내려오지 않을 것이며, 연준은 계속 딜레마에 놓일 것이라고 봤다. 출연자 전망(Dana, 이코노미스트): 재고는 앞으로도 성장에 부담이며, 주택 투자는 금리 인상과 높은 가격 때문에 급격히 위축됐다. 소비는 재화에서 서비스로 이동 중이다. 경제는 매우 공격적으로 둔화되고 있고, 시장은 이미 침체를 반영했으며 침체 시작은 올해 4분기로 보았으나 더 빨라질 수 있다고 봤다. 대상 자산 직접 언급 없음: 금리·환율 등 방향성 발언은 있었으나 지정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 예측은 명확하지 않다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. steve i just want to get your immediate reaction to this and really the larger debate are we now in a recession my friend um i'm not going to say we're in a recession in part because of i wouldn't count it from the first quarter i might begin counting it in the second quarter if you want to do the two quarters of negative growth thing which is uh this common definition that's out there um i have a problem uh given how strong the job market was or and maybe still is um you had a kind of interesting wash here that i want to talk about in just a second i want to get these numbers correct in front of me here but what you had is you had inventories took off almost two percent which people thought it was going to add back remember what rick just said he would have been negative half of the inventory number the inventory number yesterday caused a lot of folks to um raise their forecast for today uh so unclear to me if that inventory number was or how it was brought into gdp meanwhile trade reversed itself trade had taken off three percent in the first quarter uh it brought back 1.43 and here's the uh the the balance number which rick was talking about a lot of people talking about a lot of not the um the number which uh the white house has uh uh cling to or and emphasize which is this uh final sales of domestic purchasers which was up three percent in the first quarter zero right here so right on the edge of that the uh the idea of what happened in the domestic economy was a zero there's no doubt to me uh uh andrew that the uh economy has slowed from the first quarter you had a pretty good first quarter number now the second quarter definitely shows some slowing i wouldn't call it a recession here i'm gonna wait for the nber and other people who look at the three components of that is it prolonged is it pronounced is it pervasive not seeing those three things at least over the course of a single quarter here in the second quarter okay muhammad try to put together what we're just seeing now in immediate terms with what we heard from jay powell yesterday and what you think he now may or may not do as we look forward to the fall thank you andrew so in terms of what we're seeing in the data whether it is the gdp number whether it is the jobless claims number this is an economy that's weakening at a much faster rate than most people expected that's the bottom line whether in recession or not is not as interesting as the fact that we are weakening really fast um in terms of what does it mean well there were two fomc messages yesterday there was a scripted message which was that inflation is much too high that yes the economy is weakening but don't worry about it because the labor market is incredibly tight and we're going to continue tightening and then there was that unscripted but consequential comment that we are at neutral so depending on which fomc message you look at you get very different um conclusions with today's data i think the bottom line andrew is we're not out of this tax stationary forces yet yes inflation is going to come down at a headline level but it's not going to come down fast enough given how fast the economy is weakening and that's going to put the fed in the same dilemma it's been in for the last few months dana what do you think well i think that you know certainly when we look at the details it's really mixed inventories continue to be a drag they will continue to be a drag going forward but you did see residential investment come off really strongly and that's because of the fed's interest rate hikes and also very elevated prices when you look at consumer spending i think some of that is the the uh shift from mainly buying goods to services services uh gdp was up more than four percent annualized meanwhile goods was down it was it was negative um so i think that's part of that shift but still in all um we do think that the economy is slowing very aggressively we have priced in a recession could we originally put it in for the fourth quarter of this year maybe it's starting sooner and that's a function of the fed raising interest rates slowing down demand and also because people are pulling back because inflation is just so high