저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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미중 1단계 무역합의 잠정 타결 소식에 증시가 상승한 상황에서, 크레이머는 합의 자체의 중요성은 인정하되 무역 뉴스가 시장 전체를 좌우하던 시기는 지났다고 본다. 합의가 무산되더라도 경제와 증시 펀더멘털은 양호하다고 평가한다. 합의 수혜 기대가 큰 금융주로는 아메리칸익스프레스, 골드만삭스, 비자, 마스터카드 등을 거론하며 중국 진출 확대 효과를 강조한다. 아메리칸익스프레스를 가장 선호하고 골드만삭스는 중국 성장 수혜를 기대한다. 다만 JP모간은 이미 많이 오른 상태라고 본다. 기술주에서는 애플이 중국 아이폰 판매 감소 우려(크레디트스위스)와 관세 부담이 있으나 합의로 안정될 수 있다고 언급한다. 5G 관련 종목(스카이웍스, 코보, 퀄컴, 마벨)을 선호하고, AMD는 단기 급등으로 부담, 인텔은 제조 문제로 매도 쪽 입장을 밝힌다. 브로드컴은 실적과 배당 인상을 긍정적으로 평가한다. 에너지주(쉐브론 선호, 엑슨·BP 부정적)와 산업재(캐터필러, 허니웰 등)는 합의 수혜 가능성이 있으나 단기 트레이드로 접근하라고 조언한다. 완구(마텔 선호, 해즈브로), 소매(베스트바이·풋락커 등 관세 민감주), 카지노(라스베이거스샌즈 마카오 노출), 운송(유니온퍼시픽·FedEx 등)도 언급한다. 전체적으로 이번 주식들은 대부분 장기 투자가 아닌 단기 트레이드이며, 합의가 지켜지지 않을 가능성도 있다고 경고한다. 다음 주부터는 무역과 무관한 종목 얘기로 돌아가겠다고 밝힌다. 마지막으로 델타항공 보유자 질문에 대해 애플이 델타보다 더 저평가되어 있다고 답한다.
다듬은 글
hey I'm Clara welcome to have money welcome to America good morning my friends just trying to make you some money put in context here my job entertain educate teach how many times we've seen this movie before we hear that the president the Chinese government reached a tentative phase one drain Deal potential delay in new tariffs maybe even a rollback and of course the market source the Dow gaining 221 points s be climbing point eight six percent the Nasdaq forty point seven three percent what do we say hallelujah I don't mean to trivialize the importance of this news it does matter it absolutely matters the President Trump Trump's talk Trump's talk Trump's talk might be willing to reduce the tariffs on three hundred sixty billion dollars with the Chinese goods by as much as fifty percent that's some of the chatter or also canceling or for stalling the terrifying that were supposed to go into the tank this weekend that wouldn't affect a lot of consumers China is apparently willing to make some major agricultural purchases while doing a better job of enforcing us intellectual property rights and maybe opening up their markets specifically to the services and especially the financial services industry and that's a big deal button this is the world's biggest but the days when a China deal could control the fate of a whole stock market are long gone even as we act as if it is all that matters it didn't seem that way at one time because initially the market reacted to the taxes they were going to cause a worldwide recession this whole deal or no deal game seemed a lot more significant then now though the trade war has only escalated yet our economy is in fabulous shape our stock market keeps surging to records and job growth is extraordinary at this point this phase one deal with China let's caulk the icing on the cake even if it falls through the cake still pretty darn good and if we get something signed it could even be better but as I'm about to go through it it's just a small part in the S&P 500 that's why I want to explain what's actually at stake with this phase one trade deal that we heard about all day and how we can potentially profit from it because then again it's not mad politics it's not mad China it's mad money first let's be clear what do we get in exchange for Trump agreeing to roll back some of the towers and hold off on others what's it play here what can go right well it's an agreement that first specifically benefits some major institutions at least that's what it sounds like to me and you're looking at them JP Morgan Citigroup Goldman Sachs Bank of America American Express MasterCard and Visa if everything goes right for the US this Tennant deal would let them establish a strong presence in China and they'll finally be able maybe even to compete directly against Chinese operators rather than being forced into partnerships with them where they would steal all the intellectual property and perhaps even my bank account okay the financials have roared here but I think they're still worth buying even JP Morgan which is the most extended that stock has had a big move you know what I like American Express the most of the owned this because they're trying to deal would give it enormous cachet in the People's Republic I'm just looking at the past yishun deciding that this is the one that they like the best my second favorite will be Goldman Sachs which needs to get some growth here China could provide it Visa and MasterCard could easily have more upside in the ceo's time and again the old days have told me if only China would really let us in what if they do look out above again all these stocks are excellent and even if the deal some elf falls through the evaluations are not that bad so other than for this one and I happen to link up in calculus owns it you can handle any for any deal it breaks down and still do okay I have to say that because think about what's been going on the second echelon is tech this morning we got a very discouraged email from Credit Suisse about possible 35 percent drop in Chinese iPhone sales plus I'd point out that the towers could raise the cost of an iPhone here by 67 smackers Apple was down more than two bucks when the president first did that tweet that made people feel better about stocks by the other day you know what that's not closed in the black you know what that says to me it says so much for trading not oniy Apple all an apple I mean even today okay this deal will keep status quo for Apple here maybe give a nice boost of sales over there versus what the credit suisse note says hence the rally into the clothes I've been adamant that you should have some 5g Internet of Things exposure with a deal looking violet likely you know what you want to own yeah my dog who's got some sort of kennel cough it's kind of annoying hope it does okay because the Chinese regulators will finally perhaps let them acquire melon Ops is rarely company that should be immediately added to earnings if it can close the but everyone's going to get so excited all the analyst will be all bull up I also think the more traditional 5g oriented chip makers will work even though they're up a lot skyworks Corvo Qualcomm I'm focusing on Marvel tech because it's still not its 52-week I I'm a big fan of AMD but it ran too much today in anticipation so one more manufacturing problem at Intel and also some very high-speed new products at least a suit put out wait you know what I've got an anticipation of the lace of Intel I'm gonna say don't want Intel alright now after the belt Broadcom reported I thought it was good core more importantly gave a big dividend boost and that works to go by fractional shares is this 300 smut bucks what else I think giveaway are wagering too much from some of these traditional cycles here and that means you've got to be thinking about caterpillar or Honeywell or accumbens sure their numbers might go up if the trade works really anything but I don't go crazy them hey look I'd love to recommend ball you think it just fixed the 737 max unfortunately it doesn't seem but hey Ken so these but chunk just owns this but these we have to be careful because numbers can still come down but you know what really catch fire even though it maybe shouldn't energy I think the machines that control so much the day-to-day action are set to buy energy stocks on any news of I think I know this to be a fact it's what I do for a living think I mean I discover these things slumbers Jay probably Best in Show Chevron did well today Exxon down-and-out BP those are traits like caterpillar Cummings don't overstay your welcome with any of these now let's drill down let's get excited let's go to Hasbro Mattel they've been trying to shift their sourcing away from child tells me a lot more progress than has been we have Mattel CEO on the other day both stocks surged on the news say I think that they've got more room to run when we talked to the CEOs of Hasbro and Mattel we were very conscious that this weekend's taps we're gonna hurt them in currently they're really in the cross fires well guess what if we do delay or scrap December these are going to be two stocks that you can still own and buy I like Mattel here I think you can go much higher because otherwise the prices for the toys would be prohibitive it's not just toys the whole retail cohorts been a winner here what is the one that has been hurt the most Dollar Tree it's been hobbled by the trade war upside Home Depot has been trashed some of it self-inflicted upside Walmart and Target they work they spent a lot of money in China the best thing about these retail stocks there's not a lot of upside built into them already they some attractive on the other hand that's took trades Macy's and Kohl's with Macy's I think the estimates are probably too high even if the tax get rolled back Kohl's needs to see more momentum from that Amazon partnership you can return your Amazon purses in person at their stores these work only so far as you can throw them Best Buy and Foot Locker have the most exposures to this weekend's computer footwear tariff hikes that are now being put on hold perhaps Best Buy headed a terrific quarter Foot Locker did not best buy investment Foot Locker trade Nike never in trouble still some short sellers betting it because of their China exposure they would miss sneaker kingpin reports next week investment just like Nike Starbucks never really in trouble with China I'd like this story ever since CEO Kevin Johnson came to us at the US Air Force Academy told us he wanted to back up the truck at 81 dollars investment not a trade trade Las Vegas Sands the casino company with the news presence in Macau Chinese gambling haven specialist out four point seven percent yield winner winner casino dinner how about transports FedEx trade war today the hurt by China numbers are probably too high if you get a Bath's investment Union Pacific the most China exposure and doing a lot to buy back stock and clean up their operations probably some odd balls waste management used to sell a lot of garbage to China believe it or not for the trade war hey stock did nothing today I like that Stanley Black & Decker sources a lot of stuff from China that's why the stock was up 5% today it's worth noting by the way the presidents got the pulse he met with the CEO of Stan Lee CEO of Cummins and staying and CEO of Union Pacific we just got finally speed we buy the stocks no that's a joke all that said I still think the best way to bet on trade deals by presuming something's wrong even if you're today's encouraging developments why because despite this tentative agreement for China I expect them to renege talk is cheap transforming your legal system your economies expensive so next week I'm gonna go back to our regularly scheduled program and start talking again about stocks that have nothing to do with the Traymore but I know people have been demanding this list I read my Twitter feed and other than a couple of knuckleheads who really despise me I know that's what you want and the guys really despise me you know what you can't stay away from anyway the bottom line now you know what works now you know what's gonna happen I just remember please these are all mostly short-term trades not investments and then we're gonna go back next week to the hundreds of stocks that have little no relationship with the trade work or the trade crews hey by the way what's yet I mean how else do people stick with the leg trader yapple I mean look if you're self-doubt fine but training Apple that's supposed to make a noise okay anyway let's go to Mike in Florida Mike Mike Mike hey buddy I am doing well I'm blessing the people who say trade Apple do you mind how about those people how much did they cost you I have a question I'm actually calling up I'm actually calling about Delta where Delta I've been holding it for a while I have a large position in there okay and I've had a good run but they're kind of stuck in a range yeah and now with the 737 kind of coming back into the service sometime in the near future sometime I don't know if the influx of all those planes coming back service with the other carriers gonna let's let's Sox if the airlines are an okay group they're very inexpensive the stock of Delta's very inexpensive the stock of apples very inexpensive I would rather own Apple than Delta just top of mine because I saw gameplay that someone took you out of the stock just today right on the eve of the agreement all right the tenant deal let's talk about it for a second but I do this the tenant deal one trade deal with China can give a lift to a lot of stocks even some surprising names I'm giving you my list is this kind of like subliminals kind of like let's go out the lobby and buy some 7up use your judgment your mad money to buy some potential winners but remember a lot of these are trades they're not investment any money today I'm talking to an investment the CEO of Adobe pressure off of its point report what is the mark of rotation atom cloud sulfur stocks mean for their company going forward then with news that a trade deal may have been reached I'm going to tell you why there's no time like the present for China and the job explorers to pay the piper and last week I asked the co-ceos of Robert if they plan to add fraction trading to the platform Nathan Muir well guess what they're not demure and today so you can go buy a dollars worth app or even 50 cents or a penny or you can have that Credit Suisse diagram and Jim you out of your own money so stay with Ray you
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