저자: LarryFink · 외국인
요약 보기
블랙록 CEO 래리 핑크가 2019년 1월 시장 전망을 밝힌 CNBC 인터뷰로, 4분기 급락 이후 자금 유입이 회복되고 있음을 강조한다. 4분기 시장 급락은 헤지펀드의 대규모 디레버리징이 원인이었으며, 기관 고객이 대량 매도한 것은 아니라는 진단이다. 이 디레버리징이 이미 진행되어 더 안정적인 자금 흐름의 기반이 마련되었다고 본다. 최근 몇 주간 달러가 약세로 돌아서면서 신흥시장으로 자금이 재유입되고 있다. 연준이 긴축을 멈추고 장기간 쉰다면 달러 약세 경로가 이어져 신흥시장 유입이 늘어날 수 있다고 본다. 무역 분쟁 해결이 관건이다. 미국과 중국의 무역 긴장이 완화되면 투자 자금이 급증할 것이라고 전망하지만, 기술·지식재산 문제까지 해결되지 않으면 초과 유입은 제한적일 것이라고 본다. 중국은 경기침체에 빠지지 않을 것으로 보며, 성장률이 중반 6%대에서 저반 5%대로 낮아지는 것은 과도한 우려라고 평가한다. 유럽에 대한 불확실성도 언급했다. 고객들이 어디에 투자하고 포지션을 어떻게 잡아야 할지 묻는 질문이 역대 어느 때보다 많다고 전한다. 보호무역 확산으로 기업은 각 지역 사회에서 존재 이유를 증명해야 한다는 견해를 밝힌다. 기업의 소비자 선호 변화와 지역 공헌이 중요해질 것이라고 본다.
다듬은 글
Larry we know the fourth-quarter December in particularly was really chaotic but what are you seeing in January our retail investors coming back in is this a we know that the indexes have come bounced back very sharply what are you hearing from investors - we're seeing money being put to work we have about thirteen billion dollars of inflows and in our iShares platform up to date we have seen pretty good flows I don't want to annualize it but we've had very good flows pretty good flows and institutionally coming back into the market so we did see we are seeing elevated inflows from what we saw institutionally in the fourth quarter um hopefully that carries on hopefully our iShares flows carry on so we're we are seeing money being put to work and and we'll see but I would say more clients than ever before are asking questions what should they be doing where should they be allocating the money how should they be positioned you know we had a huge downdraft in emerging markets and then the last few weeks as the dollar started weakened and we started seeing a new inflows back in and we're still seeing that now - so you know that's a carry on to Joe's question are we seeing more and more money being put to work do we believe now with the Federal Reserve slowing down they're they're tightening and maybe they're pausing for a long time that would be an indication that the dollar is going to be on a path of weakening from its very large strengthening of last year if that's the case you are going to see elevated flows into emerging markets that fear in emerging markets is going to be reduced and we'll all the uncertainty about Europe you may see more flows back you know in a more stable area like some of the emerging markets but until we have better certainty on trade and on China I think you know we're not going to see super elevated flows but I do predict if there was a resolution between the US and China related to trade we would see it a surge in an investment set of music does it have to be a real resolution does it can it be something that they just say okay we agree to call off the dogs and we're not gonna resolve these issues I think I think if they if trying to reassert its desire to purchase more US product and they set targets on what they're going to be purchasing and they don't come to a resolution related to technology and intellectual capital but they're working towards a resolution that will call off the dogs and it just reduces the tension we don't believe China is is going into a recession but could we see a China be going from a mid six growth rate to a low five yeah yes is that bad not really it's just as Joe was framing his question the negativity in the fourth quarter was so severe so many hedge funds as we now are we're saying are were off side right and I think the biggest issue we saw in the fourth quarter was huge deleveraging from the hedge funds it was a mini 2008/9 we didn't see large institutional clients sell tons of assets at any one period of time and so I do believe that let that deleveraging has occurred so we have felt a base a foundation for probably better two-way flow in such a fractured world do you ever see a risk that sovereigns say you know what we actually don't want to use a Blackrock ore we don't want to use an American so-called company in this sort of grander trade war so I believe more and more companies are going to report consumer preference changes and when we saw that with Apple's announcement I think you're gonna see more companies suggest that maybe a reason for it declines you see I have not in the world I've not seen that in the financial world but Andrew as you know in my last years a CEO letter I talked about having a purpose in every community and I assert that you have to be you know Mexican in Mexico you got to be Japanese in Japan I strongly believe and I said this in my last year's letter global that this anti-globalist views of the world now this protectionism that we're seeing is accelerating the need for every company to making sure where they operate they prove their their reason of operating or they prove their purpose and in the communities where they operate I think that's going to be that that is a real key element for the success of any company today so obviously when I talk about when I talked about purpose last year I talked about having purpose to your clients to your employees to other state country when I said communities and countries and I think what you're seeing now in 2000 what we saw in 2018 in 19 you need to show that you are doing a you're helping the community you're operating whether it's Italy or China or wherever you are or America you
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