저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 마이크로소프트의 OpenAI 사태 대응은 투자자에게 긍정적이며, AI 경쟁 구도에서 MS의 입지가 강화됐다는 평가. MS의 대응 평가 - Dan Ives: 나델라의 대응을 '세대에 남을 포커 한 수'로 표현, MS는 어느 쪽이든 승리했을 것이라고 주장. - 샘 올트먼·그렉 브록먼이 MS로 갔거나 OpenAI에 복귀했거나 상관없이 MS에 유리했다는 논리. - 사태가 정리되며 MS 주가가 이번 주 다시 사상 최고치에 근접했다고 언급. OpenAI 지분 구조 - Connie Loos(TechCrunch): OpenAI의 비영리·영리 혼합 구조와 투자자 수익 상한(2019년 도입, 원금의 100배) 제도가 변경될지 질문. - 올트먼이 AGI 달성 시 미래 가치 전체를 포착할 수 있다고 언급했던 점을 인용하며, 특정 투자자 집단이 가치를 독점하는 것은 문제라는 입장. - 이사회 구성은 진행 중이며 3명이 교체된 상태라고 설명. AWS·경쟁 구도 - Ives: 다음 주 AWS re:Invent에서 AI 역량 입증 필요. 알파벳도 AI 경쟁력 강조 중. - 현재 AI 군비 경쟁 국면이며, AWS가 MS·구글 뒤의 3위 플레이어가 될 우려를 지적. 엔비디아·칩 전략 - 젠슨 황 발언: 기업들이 AI를 외주하지 않고 자체 맞춤형 독점 AI를 구축할 것이라는 취지. - Ives: 빅테크들이 자체 칩 개발에 나설 것이며, 엔비디아가 현재 유일한 선택지지만 애플식 실리콘 내재화가 다음 단계가 될 것으로 전망. - 향후 10년간 약 1조 달러 규모 기회, 30년 만의 최대 기술 전환이라고 평가. 리스크 - 사태가 실시간으로 전개 중이어서 OpenAI 지배구조 변화의 방향은 불확실.
다듬은 글
joining us wed book equity research managing director Dan IES and TechCrunch uh editor and chief Connie Loos great to have you both here with us Connie so now we're on a pause now in this drama at least is open AI worth more because Microsoft likely has more control now or less because customers need to diversify what's what's the buzz out there I think the buzz is that it is worth more because there are sort of fewer encumbrances in place and and boy John I mean this is a great it's a great day for Microsoft I mean just to have this settled Microsoft was going to win here either way whether open AI went you know Sam and Greg went into to Microsoft or whether they went back to uh openai but it's a very good day for investors outside of Microsoft and its employees because it's sort of like that movie It's a Wonderful Life where the protagonist gets a glimpse into what life would be like if he didn't exist I think investors and employees got a glimpse to what life would be like at open AI if Sam left and it meant that their Equity would probably have been worth zero so those are the biggest beneficiaries of this move and so Dan this is an interesting setup to next week when AWS the the biggest name in cloud has reinvent and is going to want to prove that they've got the AI chops as well alphabet's had a big run based on saying hey don't count us out in AI this year what's the most important thing to you that happened this week look The Golden Child Alman is ultimately really in Microsoft's hands and I think the way they played this was a poker move for the ages from Nadel and I think as it plays out you had little kids playing checkers with the kids table in terms of this the open AI board and then the the master chess master came in here and I think right now it's Microsoft just that much more of a flex of muscles on AI what you want to see from Jassie and AWS okay what are you bringing show us the technology how could I have confidence from a share perspective that you're not going to be potentially the third player behind Microsoft behind Google this is an arms race playing out and right now Microsoft and they're popping champagne and Redmond because of the way nadela played this out yeah and now you see it in the stock it's trading at all-time highs again this week Connie I I'm curious though I mean this has been framed at least within the media as sort of a profits versus caution story that's been unfolding at at open AI where the where this new capability and these new applications are concerned you've got this weird hybrid nonprofit for-profit structure at open AI as well is that going to change now I it sounds like the uh nonprofit board is going to change I mean the obviously the the board members are are changing as we speak there's three that have been soled this is an ongoing process you know I think a really interesting piece of this um equation that hasn't been covered CED and I've reached out to Sam today I've reached out to open AI investors to find out is a Capp structure a capped profit structure that Sam instituted in 2019 the idea here was to cap investors profits at 100 times their original investor investment because he suggested that if open AI could get to uh so-called artificial generalized intelligence which is this sort of more sophisticated AI that we seem to be moving toward quickly that it could be so power powerful and so lucrative that he wanted these investors not to sort of hold all the value in the world in fact he spoke at one of my events uh for strictly VC which is now a subsidiary of tech runch and he said that if open AI manages to crack this particular nut it could quote maybe capture the light cone of all future value in the universe and that for sure is not okay for for one group of investors to have so I'm curious to know now if that has changed I mean I sort of hope not but so much is getting dismantled in real time right now it's unclear I think it's really Dan would love to get your thoughts on that but also some of the commentary we heard from nvidia's CEO Jensen Hong last night where he basically said that you have this rapidly evolving AI industry um and that there this is a world in which companies are going to build their own custom proprietary AI rather than quote unquote Outsourcing it to someone else I mean coming coming off of this Wild Weekend for open AI th those comments and the context around those comments certainly cannot be denied yeah and when the Godfather of AI speaks with and I mean it it it really speaks to not just Microsoft but others in Tech because they're going to look to build their own chips I think Alman now that's going to be the next initiative in terms of going further after what Nvidia has they're the only game in town and I think if you look at Apple's model in terms of what they did with silicon it's them really owning more of the ecosystem and we're talking about a trillion doll opportunity over the next decade in my opinion it's the biggest Tech transformation we've seen in 30 years and that's why I think Jensen understand two steps ahead what's going to happen here from a chip perspective
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