저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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1월 실적시즌 개막 전 대형 은행(JP모건, 웰스파고, 씨티, BofA) 점검. JP모건은 우량하나 밸류 부담, BofA는 'show me' 스토리로 추가 실적 확인 필요, 씨티는 구조조정 기대이나 확신 어려움, 웰스파고는 비용절감·배당·자사주 개선으로 긍정적. 핵심 지표는 NII·NIM, 신용비용, 소비 상태, IB 활동이며 금리 인하기 은행주 매력 강조. 전반적으로 금리 정점 및 연착륙 가정 시 은행주 보유 가치 있다는 견해.
다듬은 글
earning season unofficially kicks off on Friday morning this time with all four of the Big Money Center Banks City Group Bank of America JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo tonight I want to get you ready for this initial earning splits because the banks can set the tone for the entire earning season itself because they touch on so many parts of the economy last year most of the big money centers came out of the regional banking crisis smelling like roses these were the safest places to deposit your money in a world where we are getting actual bankrupts JP Morgan finished the year up 27% Wells Fargo rallied 19% C group jumped 14% it was only Bank of America did poorly up just 1.7% because it had a large balance of unrealized losses from its Bond Investments which is one of the things that brought down Silicon Valley Bank in First Republic but that happened because the FED Titan aggressively there were absolutely no solvency issues in Bank of America and now well that long race have been coming down for months it's no longer a problem maybe an opportunity after last year's moves though their valuations are all over the place I like to look at the price of tangible Book value for banks meaning what the institution would be worth if you liquidated the whole thing overnight which I know it's not going to happen but it's a good apples apples way to look JB Marine trades at more than two times Book value which is pretty expensive they deserve a premium but that's getting up there Bank of American Wells Fargo trade at 1.4 1.3 times Book value respectively City trades at just6 times Book value make it the cheapest by a wide margin although one could argue that there's something very wrong about anything that cheap rais his eyebrows from a different perspective they all sell for 9 to 11 times this year's earnings estimates by the way that is historically low what about the N J Morgan remains very wellik but not quite beloved dor Bank just upgraded the stock from hold to buy yesterday however I don't see many analyst scrambling name it a top pick for 2024 or anything I think J morg is a real good stock they can grind higher uh let say overtime kind of it's kind of like the Cleveland Cleveland Browns you know just but maybe not one they can scream higher in any given point time how about Bank of America now for a while this was widely considered this the second best money center but last year those concerns about the bond portfolio hijacked the entire narrative at this point Bank of America has become somewhat of a what we call a show me story they need to put up a few solid quarters in a row so that Wall Street can get excited about the story again I think there's just a lot to like here excellent digital banking platform attractive dividend underappreciated Investment Banking franchise very good management but it remains un Lov for the moment for me the most surprising thing is all the love we're seeing for City Group which has rallied roughly 39% from its multi-year lows in October doesn't hurt that the company announced a major restructuring effort in September City had already started abandoning many of their far- flowing International businesses but in September they said they'd eliminate certain management layers and generally cut a number of jobs by now they've enacted multiple rounds of layoffs so wall Street's excited that the Cost Cuts will finally let City deliver some real earnings I don't know will they be growth from that questionable according to the analyst this is the only major bank that's expected to grow earnings in 2020 24 though and that's up 5.2% the street figures everybody else will experience load to Mid singled digit declines wow I hope City can make a comeback but let's just say I'll believe it when I see it I'm much more excited about the very real turn at Wells Fargo which we own for the travel trust just this week the stock quot not one but two separate downgrades from buy to hold you know what I couldn't disagree with them more the new management team of Wells remains maniacally focus on cutting cost and improving their technology the dividend buyback also get better as we get further away from the companies probably pass and The Regulators give them more leeway frankly I like that Wells Fargo somewhat out of favor here that's what gives you an opportunity Charlie sharff CEO is on a mission to cut costs and boost Revenue he will succeed so that mind what will we be watching for when they report on Friday with the banks the headline sales and earnings numbers only matter so much the true key metrics here are net interest income nii and net interest margin ni am both of which show you how their core banking business is doing what they make from borrowing your deposits and then lending that money at a higher rate long rates have come down dramatically and I want to know what management thinks about high changing interest rates and how they will impact their uh bottom line we got to know who does best in a lowering rate environment okay second we need some color on the state of both consumers and corporate credit that's whether there's dead beats or whether people are doing okay many banks took large positions for credit losses during the pandemic then in 2022 when the FED started tiing they did it again but the actual losses didn't happen so last year the banks reversed those credit charges giving them a very nice earnings boost if credit quality remains robust we could see more charge reversals meaning the earnings estimates for 2024 might actually be too low if they make more negative comments about credit quality though the stocks are going to get hurt they may take the whole Market down with them third I'll be listening for any other commentary about the financial health of the consumer the incredibly resilient levels of consumer spending thanks to the incredibly resilient labor market has allowed the economy to stay much stronger than expected even as the fed's ruthlessly raised interest rates for the past couple years most of these big banks are large credit card issuers so they have great color in consumer spending habits they can also tell us about deposit balances loan demand both important metrics of course spending I'll be watching this stuff closely because it's a great way to take the Pulse of the consumer finally although it's bigger deal for outfits like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both of which report early next Tuesday I'll be listening for commentary on the money center Investment Banking operations there's a lot of optimism about a continued recovery for the capital markets business this year both thanks to resurch and IPO market and also geez just billions of dollars in bond missu something that's almost a given with interest rates coming down we've also seen a pick up in Mna which is great for investment bankers The Advisory fees they get on these deals are phenomenal an investment banking comeback could allow the financials to give us some excellent performance this year so let me give you the bottom line about the banks if you believe as I do that interest rates have peaked and that our econom is almost certainly in for a soft Landing thank you J pal then the bank should should be worth owning right now but let's see what happens when the four big money centers report on Friday why don't we take some calls why don't we start with Tim in Georgia Tim hey Jim thank you for taking my call oh my pleasure Tim what's going on great so uh I've been invested in Sofi for a couple uh years now and have a 650 share average uh My overall invest my investment strategy is pretty simple just look for good companies with significant growth potential excellent CEOs and stay long so my question with Sofi is relating to valuation with gap Prof with gap profitability and earnings right around the corner how do you think the market will valuate Sofi as a bank or fintech and what would your strategy be in 2024 excellent concerns and congratulations on having such a good basis on Sofi I think that we're going to stop thinking of this this will be the year where we stop thinking about just how many people they sign up and start thinking about how much money they're making and you're absolutely right Anthony notto was a fantastic CEO I think at $8 this is one of the cheapest banking stocks not fintech those days are behind it how about Charlie in Pennsylvania Charlie Jim it's honor to be on your show you know it seems like there's you bigit of sentiment out there right now uh for the market to broaden out and thinking about adding to a position I've had for years uh it seems to be sitting niches that are quite popular right now small company financial and it's a dividend Aristocrat I'm thinking about a little Regional Bank here Community Bank systems oh man that is real it's like jimong Canal holy cow I like your Cho Choice it's going to do very well in a lowering uh rate environment and it's very inexpensive good call good call my friend now if you believe as I do that interest rates of peak then the bank should be worth owning right now but let's see what happens when the big four money centers report this Friday much more M money head including my JP Morgan Healthcare cerence exclusive with beckon Dickinson how is the Medtech company using AI to streamline its business I'm getting the latest from the C then I have one key takeway from being out in San Francisco with some of the world's largest Healthcare cosos I'll reveal what I learned and how it could impact your investing thesis in the space and all your calls rapid fire in tonight's edition of the lighting ra so stay with cre
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