저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
시장 타이밍을 맞추려는 시도는 위험하며 '몇 회차인지(inning)'식 사이클 예측은 야구와 달리 끝을 알 수 없어 무의미하다. 경기 회복은 역사상 최장 기간을 기록 중이지만 법칙상 더 지속될 수 있다. 버블은 가격을 무시하는 사고('가격은 중요하지 않다')에서 드러나며, 1960년대 니프티50 사례처럼 가격을 무시하면 5년 보유 시 90% 손실이 날 수 있다. 시장 전반의 방향은 자산별 예측 없이 원칙론 위주로 전개.
다듬은 글
first let me say that in the in in the economic world or in the business World certainly the investment World sometimes we have an idea what we think will happen we never know when and the biggest problem you can have is by believing that you know when something is going to happen and acting strongly on that one of the guys who uh works for me once wrote a memo to his clients and he had a expressed a simple rule if you name a price don't name a date if you name a date don't name a price but if you name a price and a date you can be wrong in in the other two cases you can never be wrong you say well I think that stock is going to sell at 40 sometime they can't prove you wrong you know Etc so so we we we talk about a correction but we should not be so we should not have so much hubris as to think we know when it's going to happen that's number one number two back in the crisis of 0708 people got into the habit of asking me and others they kept saying what ining are we in this became the big question in that cycle what inning are we in and so and that's the way people talk about that now when they said it back in '08 what they meant is how close are we to the end of the crisis is what they were asking more recently they've been asking it and what they mean is how how how close are we to the end of the bullish phase of the credit cycle and I've been saying we're in the eighth inning for a little while and I realized about a year ago that there's one problem with that locution which is that this isn't baseball and we don't know how long the game's going to go in baseball if I tell you we're in the eighth inning that means you can start packing up uh but in investing the game could go nine innings 11 14 who There's No Limit like I said to Justice about his question about seven to eight year Cycles there's no limit so the current economic recovery is uh the third longest in history and if it goes on for another year it'll be the longest in history there's nothing to say it can't there's also nothing there's no law there are not laws of nature or physics at work here so there's nothing to say it can't go another year another two years another three years anything's possible now we can tell from the fact that that no recovery has gone more than I think about 120 months there must be something there must be some Reon reason you know we we may not even be able to say what it is but it tends to define the probabilities by the way most people you probably haven't started to think about this yet but I'm I'm assured that almost just about everybody dies by 114 and that we we get more and more and more people who are living past 100 and I'm optimistic about that but but still almost nobody lives past 114 we don't know why but that's the rule so if you're start if you're if you're going to make a put down hard money for a vacation cruise for your 116th birthday you're probably wasting your money and so so the thing is that uh you know this can go on a long time and in particular I want to expand on your question a little bit to say that you you said do I think about whether this is going to be a a CRA a crash correction or crash and uh first of all you have to realize that the period of time that you have seen is only a brief part of history and you have to bear that in mind so if you've been looking at markets let's say for the last uh 20 years it's easy to say talk about crashes because it happens that the last two cyclical episodes we've had have been bubble and crash we had the tech bubble and crash and then the mortgage bubble in Crash that is not to say that every upswing is a bubble and and and has to be followed by a crash and in fact over the previous decades that I lived through we had lots of minor uh boomlets and then Corrections so it so first of all don't automatically think bubble crash secondly uh Chris was asking me before what do I think is the whole Mark of a bubble and in in Market wise I think that the hmark of a bubble is bubble thinking and and I didn't get a chance to tell you what I meant but bubble thinking to me is when people say you know there's always a grain of Truth so in 1999 and 98 the grain of Truth was that the internet would change the world and so people took that grain of Truth and they ex expanded it to mean that as a consequence if you invested in a in Internet or a Ecommerce company you would probably make a fortune uh because the internet was going to change the world and it happens and by the way and as a consequence it it didn't matter what price you paid there's no price too high to participate in that kind of a trend and it turns out that the internet did change the world and probably 99% of those companies ended up valueless so the point is that when you reach at the point where people have separated value and price considerations from platitudes and things have slipped their Moorings and gone off into Infinity that that's a bubble and that to me that kind of so if you hear people say price doesn't matter no price too high then I think you're in Bubble Land you know I started in the invest business um 50 years ago in the summer of 1968 I was between years of grad school and I had a summer job at City Bank in the investment research department and at that time this the New York Banks invested in what were called the nifty50 the stocks of the 50 greatest fastest growing companies in America IBM Xerox K Avon MK Lily Texas Inman huid packet Perkin Elmer AIG and on and on like that and they were selling at astronomical prices 80 to 90 times earnings you know the the average PE ratio for postwar period of 16 times earnings so they were selling at five plus times the average and the official dictum at the bank was that the price didn't matter you didn't have to look at the price because if it was a little too high so what it's growing so fast it'll just grow into the price and if you bought the stocks when I got there in in 68 and you and you diligently held them for 5 years you lost 90% of your money because it turned out the price does matter so that's to me that's the mark of a bubble
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