How to BUY at the Bottom of a Market Cycle | Howard Marks | MUST WATCH | Stocks

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시장 사이클에서 대중 심리는 고점에서 낙관해 매수하고 저점에서 비관해 매도하는 경향이 있다. 투자자는 감정 통제 능력을 갖추고 군중과 반대로 움직여야 하며, 시장이 공포에 휩싸일 때 현금을 준비해 저평가 자산을 분할 매수해야 한다. 강세장 1단계(소수가 개선 인식)에서 매수하면 큰 수익, 3단계(모두가 영원한 상승 믿음)에서 매수하면 큰 손실이라고 강조한다. 특정 종목이나 지수에 대한 구체적 수치 근거는 제시되지 않았다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. the ability to be a liquidity provider at the bottom of a cycle does that link to the this notion of emotional intelligence that you're talking about well uh I would say emotional control uh you know look if you think about cycles and this is a there's a lot about this in the book and that's why I recommend that everybody body buy several copies but if you think about the cycle the market cycle let's say that goes this way what's happening so we we're in a we're in one of these periods and the economic news is good everything on MSNBC is favorable the newspapers only report the good news everything the most stories can can be given a positive spin the companies are performing and they're generally exceeding expectations the stock prices are rising the rising stock prices are making people feel good people are turning more optimistic their their fears are are abating their eagerness is rising and they're buying and they people tend to buy more when prices go higher and then of course the reverse is true on the other side the news is bad people get depressed they've lost money they feel terrible and they start to sell so people tend to buy a lot here and and sell a lot here now unless I'm mistaken they got it wrong you're supposed to buy here and sell here and not buy here and Sell Here Buy Low sell high it's very easy dict them uh so why do they do the opposite why do people buy here and Sell Here the answer is I think we can lump the explanation Under The Heading of emotion and if so you you were you mentioned Seth claran and uh Stan ducken Miller I mean these are two people that have been here in this in this series and I think one of the things that they have in common among they very they're different people they're both brilliant but one of the things they both have in common is they're not emotional and you know I say in my book that uh that that not being very emotional is very useful in the investing World there are worlds in which it's not such a good thing like in marriage you know it does it right it lack of emotionality does not endear us to our spouses uh but the truth of the matter is it's very helpful to be either be unemotional or have the ability to control your emotions you have to I mean when you make the really big money in this world by unhooking from the market when it gets up here and everybody and everybody's happy and nobody could think of anything that could ever go wrong and everybody thinks that that that trees are going to grow to the sky and and so you sell up here and then the market collapses and when you get down here nobody can think of anything anything that could ever go right again and the and every stock price is devoid of any optimism in at all and that's a great time to buy but to be that you have to be a contrarian and you have to be ability you have to be able to diverge from the crowd now if you think about it everybody receives the same inputs we read the same newspaper the economic news is the same for all of us the corporate news is the same for us the TTV says the same thing to all of us some of us see the news and the prices as a Buy Signal and just when most people see the news and the prices as a sell signal and vice versa and you want to be in the minority back in back in the early 70s somebody gave me a great gift and and told me about the three stages of a bull market the first stage when only a few unusually perceptive people believe to understand that there could be some improvement the second stage when most people accept that Improvement is actually taking place and the third stage when everybody in his brother believes that things can only get better forever you make a lot of money if you buy in the first stage you lose a lot of money if you buy in the last stage you buy the same things but what matters is when do you buy them and at what price and to do that you have to it the Mar the prices are set low because everybody else is pessimistic you should be optimistic the market is set high and dangerous when everybody else is optimistic you should be pessimistic but it takes obviously emotional control to be able to do that it's tough It's the minority Howard marks known for mastering the market Cycles advises patients and careful planning when buying at the bottom of a market cycle he says investors should study past market trends to understand when the prices are too low when fear is high good opportunities often appear because many people are selling in panic Marx recommends having extra cash ready to buy undervalued assets when the market drops instead of trying to buy at the lowest point He suggests buying gradually over time he explains that if you buy at the first stage of a bull market you make a lot of money if you buy in the second stage you make some money and if you buy in the third stage you lose a lot of money staying calm and not following the crowd is very important during Market downturns in the end those who stay patient and make smart choices during tough times can earn extraordinary returns