저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 라케시 준준왈라는 자신의 사모투자 성과와 인도 경기·은행주에 대해 낙관적이며, 주식 가치평가가 실적에 종속된다는 점을 인정하면서도 은행·원자재 중심 보유를 유지한다. 사모투자 포트폴리오: 25건 중 7~8건은 손실 또는 원금 회수 수준, 6건은 5배 수익, 5건은 10~40배 다배 수익을 기대한다고 설명한다. 2000년 첫 사모투자 이후 기업 성장 원리를 배웠다고 말한다. 투자 원칙: 목표 수익률은 연 18~20%이며, 2배 수익이 나도 목표 수익률이 충족되면 매도하지 않겠다고 밝힌다. 정보 없이 투자하지 않으며 방향성, 사람, 기회를 보고 직관적으로 투자한다고 말한다. 가치평가 전망: 주식시장 밸류에이션은 이익에 종속되며, 현재 시장이 과도한 변화를 선반영하고 있다고 본다. 변화는 시간이 걸리며 현재 밸류에이션은 과도하다는 취지다. 원자재: 원자재 사이클이 최소 5년 지속될 것으로 보고 Tata Steel, Telco, Jindal Steel 등에 큰 규모로 투자했다고 밝힌다. 은행 및 인도 경기: 인도 신용성장률은 명목 GDP 성장률의 1.25~1.5배가 전통적이며 현재 6.7%에서 15%까지 오를 것으로 본다. 2025년까지 인도가 두 자릿수 성장할 것으로 전망한다. 공공은행은 충분히 충당금을 쌓았다고 평가한다. State Bank of India(SBI): 5년 만에 처음 나온 훌륭한 경영진, YONO 플랫폼, 리테일 부문 성과를 높게 평가한다. 보험·리테일·펀드에서 SBI만큼 유통을 할 곳이 없다고 말한다. Canara Bank: 국영은행 중 보유 비중이 큰 은행으로 함께 언급되며 긍정적으로 본다. 리스크: 본인도 실수할 권리가 있다고 인정하고, 상장 시장에서는 규제 때문에 알 수 있는 정보에 한계가 있다고 언급한다. 부채는 더 늘리지 않겠다고 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
I could have made a total of 25 investments, of which I believe seven or eight have been lost and forgotten. Seven or eight could simply return the capital. Six will give me a return of five on my investment and five will give me multiple, multiple, multiple, multiple returns, 10 times, 20 times, 30 times, 40 times.
So, overall, my portfolio has performed well and taught me a lot because, as you know, I made my first private investment in 2000, and when I observed those companies and worked with them, I realized what the growth block was. It has also greatly improved my skills as an investor. I think private investment is very demanding, but it's very interesting that if I make a very good investment and maybe double my money in 3 years, that doesn't mean I should sell that investment because my target return for my portfolio is 18 or 20%.
Even if, after traveling, the investment can only give me an 18% return on the new value, I wouldn't want to do it, because I believe that as companies grow in size, they gain knowledge and experience. And if the free option is available, I'd like to keep my investment because I do n't have any investors other than my wife, right?
When it comes to private matters, I 'm not stingy at all. I mean, most of my deals have been closed without bankers. Most of my deals have been closed by people who have approached My KP; I created an idea because I really like entrepreneurs. When I invested in Titan, I never knew it would become Titan.
Let me tell you, I wasn't as visionary as people think. Because you invest, you believe the opportunity is good, time passes, you investigate, you learn more, you understand. Look, Nisha, we invest based on information because I can't say that I 've invested in a chain of hospitals. I have invested in a jewelry company.
I have invested in a KP. I am not investing in an animal health business. I invested in a shoe marketing company. I have invested in a pharmaceutical company. So we have to realize that we cannot invest from informed ignorance. And the second thing is that nowadays in the listed sector, due to regulatory reasons, you can't know more than you can know up to a certain point.
That's why, when I plan , when I make an investment, I look at the direction, I look at the people, I look at the opportunity, and I do it a lot by intuition. I feel that everything can change economically. One thing isn't going to change: that stock market valuations are, you know, slaves to profits.
And I think we're anticipating too many changes in valuations, you know? They will happen , they will take time, and we are paying an absurd valuation. Co has been very, very fortunate financially. I can say it's a human tragedy because I started investing at the bottom of the market in April, and my liquidity is now at its highest level, my debt is at its highest level, and I don't want to go into debt any more.
But I invested in several companies. I invested in pharmaceuticals. I made a very large investment in TA Steel and Telco, Indians, Gindel Steel. I mean , I've invested a lot of money in commodities because I believe this commodities cycle is going to last at least five years. And the valuations were observed, and, in my opinion, in the cash flows of the continents, the valuations are still observed, and I did several things.
I invested in a bank. I invested in a construction company. I added value to my investments there. What else did I invest in? I put some money into a self-research company. No, in a variety of companies, but I am fully invested, as I primarily invest in banks. At the state bank and at the Can bank. So I think the banks, you know, the people , I think credit growth in India is traditionally 1.25 to 1.5 times the normal GDP growth, and this, you know, credit growth which has been 6.7%, is going to reach 15%.
I see India growing at double-digit rates this year and next year at rates of 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10. I believe that by 2025 India will be growing at double-digit rates. That's my opinion; I have the right to make mistakes. And I think the group will recover, and the public sector banks are fully provisioned, you know , and they also have the capacity to attract deposits, and then the State Bank, I can't imagine what.
Very well managed, very well directed. This is the first time he has been president in five years. They have YONO. If someone wants to borrow money five times, who will they go to? They are doing very well in the retail sector. The subsidies are going well. Nobody can do that distribution, as far as you know, not in insurance, not in retail, not in investment funds.
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