저자: AkshatShrivastava · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오의 포트폴리오 변화(S&P500 약 40% 축소, 소비재 브랜드 확대)를 근거로 미국 기술주 고평가를 경고하고, 인도·중국 등 신흥국 분산투자와 인도 중산층 성장 수혜를 강조한다. 달리오 포트폴리오 변화 - S&P500 보유분을 약 37~40% 축소(약 6억달러 규모 매도로 언급) - 월마트, PNG, 코카콜라, 펩시, 코스트코, 맥도날드 등 소비재 브랜드 보유를 약 45~50% 늘림 - 상위 5개 기술주가 S&P500 시가총액의 약 23%를 차지해 2000년(약 18%)보다 집중도가 높아짐 고평가 및 매크로 논리 - 기술주가 다소 고평가돼 있으며 미국 기술주 조정 시 인도 기술주도 동반 하락할 것이라 주장 - 고인플레이션 환경에서 강한 브랜드는 가격 인상력이 있다는 논리(맥도날드 메뉴 가격 8% 인상 사례 등) 해외 분산투자 - 달리오가 신흥국 및 중국(알리바바, MSCI China) 비중을 늘린 것으로 설명 - 중국 기술주는 정부 규제로 하락해 저평가 구간이라는 해석 - 개인투자자도 국가 분산 필요성 강조 인도 중산층 성장 전망 - 인도 중산층이 2025~2040년 사이 중국·인도네시아·베트남 중산층을 넘어설 것이라는 예측 인용 - 재량 소비 증가로 다양한 산업 성장 기대, 긴 호황(Bull Run)이 10~20년 내 올 수 있다고 전망 리스크 - 인도 국가부채/GDP 비율이 높아 재정 관리 실패 시 증시 타격 우려 - 정부 재정 건전성을 모니터링하고, 부채가 통제 불능이면 시장 이탈 권고 출연자 전망 - 은행주, 소비재 내구재, 전기차(EV) 섹터에 장기적으로 강세 전망 - 예금(FD)보다 사업에 투자할 것을 권장하며 중소형주 투자도 언급
다듬은 글
hi everyone, welcome to today's video. Today I'm going to analyze Mr. Ray Dalio's portfolio for you. He has made some very specific, very important changes to his portfolio that can be a massive learning for us if we are invested in the stock market. Picking up cues from him, we can accordingly realign and readjust our own portfolio. Ray Dalio is one of my absolute favorite investors in the world. The reason is that he is one of the foremost macroeconomics-based investors. People often discount the value of macroeconomic investing, so let me explain with an example why it is one of the most useful forms of stock investing.
Let's say we are sitting in August right now and we are looking at Indian tech stocks. We analyze candle patterns, charts, cup-and-handle formations, and a bunch of other things. That is technical analysis, and there is nothing wrong with it, nor with technical traders who do intraday or short-term trading. I also do swing trading. But here is the reality: if for some reason a sector rotation happens in US tech stocks, trust me, Indian tech stocks will fall short too. You can look at whatever RSI you want, it won't help. Similarly, the moment bond yields start rising, there will be a massive outflow of money from the stock market, and stocks across midcap, small cap, and large cap will start going down. That is the power of macroeconomics. Ray Dalio looks at major trends and makes his investments accordingly. So it is extremely important for us to be educated about how to understand macroeconomics and, more importantly, how to apply that knowledge in the stock market. This is very difficult to teach, and I make my honest effort, so please give this video a thumbs up. It will make me super happy, and I would really appreciate it.
In today's video I will essentially do three things. First, I'll take you through Mr. Dalio's core portfolio: what he holds right now and the major changes he has made. Second, I'll cover where he is investing now and, more importantly, why. Third, I'll cover the major implications for us as retail investors: how we can pick up cues, avoid certain overvalued sectors, and which types of sectors we should move into.
Let me start with the first section, a quick walk through Mr. Dalio's portfolio. If you look at the holdings of Bridgewater Associates, which is his fund, you'll see some major changes. The first, right up front, is that the S&P 500 holding has been cut by 37%. The S&P 500 is an index fund based in the US that invests in US stocks. He has reduced his index holding by 37%, and that position is now worth about $845 million, so he would have sold roughly $600 million worth of shares. That's a lot of money, and we need to understand why this is happening. That is a very important concept for us.
Then, if you look further, he has bought a lot of Walmart, with his holding up about 45%. Holdings in PNG are up around 47%. Coca-Cola is up about 45%, Pepsi about 49%, and Costco and McDonald's both up around 50%. So he has cut his major S&P 500 index holding and is no longer investing in the index as a whole. Second, he has invested in very specific types of stocks, such as Coca-Cola and Pepsi, and he is making very big bets. He has not just trimmed his portfolio by 1%, 2%, or 5%. He has cut his S&P holdings by almost 40% and increased his holdings in certain stocks by up to 50%. Those are two key changes, and they are massive, so it's very important to understand them. Let me go through them step by step.
Let's look at the chart for the S&P 500 weighted by market cap. If you zoom out and look at it, you'll notice that the S&P 500 has become more and more concentrated over time. Back in 2000, companies like Microsoft, GE, Cisco, Intel, and Walmart were the top five companies in the S&P 500 by weight, and their combined weight was about 18%. Now, in 2021, the top five companies making up the S&P 500 are all tech stocks, and together they account for about 23% of the market cap. If Ray Dalio is bringing down his S&P 500 holding across the board, what does that indicate? It indicates that he holds the following view: right now, the S&P 500 is overvalued. Why does he think so? Because the top five companies make up a large share of the index. The index is essentially a basket of stocks, and five stocks making up 23% of that basket is huge, frankly insane. So he is not betting big on that part of the S&P 500. He has cut that holding by 40% because he feels tech stocks are somewhat overvalued, and he is pouring the money he makes into other types of stocks.
I've said this many times: whenever you see a very sharp increase like this, you must be very wary. You must look at these individual stocks and ask whether they are good companies. Absolutely, these are great companies. But are they overvalued right now? In my opinion, yes. And whenever a correction happens in US tech stocks, Indian tech stocks will suffer the same fate. Please remember this. It's very important to note.
That brings us to the second key point in Mr. Dalio's strategy: where he is putting the money. He's investing in Walmart, PNG, Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Costco, and McDonald's. These are stable companies with very strong brand value. This is a very important point. If you've watched my inflation video, you'll understand why he is betting big on brands right now, brands consumed by everyday Americans. That is the simple philosophy here.
Here's something interesting. A recent Business Insider article reports that companies like Taco Bell, McDonald's, and Dunkin' are raising menu prices. According to the article's analysis, the biggest price increases were 10% at Taco Bell, 8% at McDonald's, and 8% at Dunkin'. There are a couple of questions to ask yourself. First, why can companies like McDonald's raise menu prices so easily by 8% when US inflation is around 1 to 2%? Because McDonald's has built a brand, and brands are very powerful. Yesterday I released a video where I said categorically that I invest in things like Voltas and Whirlpool because they are brands. I don't invest in something like Timken Enterprise, for example, because it's a back-end company rather than a consumer brand. The key takeaway is this: in a high-inflation environment, and we are currently in one, good brands can keep raising prices. McDonald's has been doing it for decades. Every decade inflation goes up, McDonald's raises its prices too, and it stays in business. It has been doing that successfully, and that is what makes McDonald's one of the biggest fast food companies in the world.
To quickly summarize: according to Ray Dalio, tech stocks are somewhat overvalued right now, and that's why he is cutting his S&P 500 holdings. People don't usually sell index funds, but he sold 40% of his index exposure and moved that money into companies with very strong brand value. Why? Because we are in a high-inflation environment, and he expects it to continue. If you hold good brands, they control pricing power. They can keep raising prices, and he makes money in the process. That's why he has increased his holdings in everyday American companies like Pepsi, Costco, and McDonald's.
This brings us to the second section: where Mr. Dalio is now putting more of his money, and some key points I observe. First, he has started taking more positions in the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets fund. Emerging markets include markets like India. He has also started investing more in Alibaba Group Holding, so he is making China-based investments, along with a lot of other international investments. As retail investors, we don't have a portfolio as big as his, but the important lesson is that if we get the chance to invest outside our home country, we should diversify. These days there is a lot of sovereign risk. If you invest only in China or only in India, and something bad happens there, you are not diversified. So if you're investing in stock markets, find a way to diversify beyond India too. I agree India is growing very strongly, and I am heavily invested in India and will continue to be. But, like Mr. Dalio, follow the diversification principle at the country level as well.
There are a few countries I'll go through to explain why I am bullish on them and why Mr. Dalio is also bullish. First, India. I've been talking about India for a while: it has amazing growth opportunities, especially in its stock markets. That's why investors are so bullish on it right now, despite its GDP contracting sharply because of the coronavirus. Here is a chart showing the forecast for how much India's middle class will grow. By 2040, India's middle class is projected to overtake China's middle class, Indonesia's, and Vietnam's. In pure numbers, it would be massive. And when India's middle class is that large, many good things happen, because people undertake more discretionary spending and most companies end up making money. Many people ask me why so much investor money is flowing into India. The reason is that India's middle class is growing and will continue to grow. It's only a matter of time before it is massively large. People will start spending more on discretionary items, and no matter which industry you look at, there will be massive growth opportunities.
There was also a very interesting Financial Times article on this, saying that nearly 55% of India's population is expected to join the ranks of the middle class. Because India's demographics are much younger than China's or the US's, India's middle class could be the largest in the world as early as 2025. These are all different forecasts, but we can all agree that India's middle class is growing, discretionary spending will grow, and that puts India on a very strong growth trajectory. We might see a massive bull run in the Indian market over the next couple of decades.
Now, if you do the same analysis for China, you'll see that Mr. Dalio has taken a lot of positions there, for two reasons. Here is a chart published by the International Monetary Fund, which predicts that by 2030 the Chinese economy will overtake the US economy. So it makes sense to invest in Chinese companies if you want to. Let me know in the comments if you want a separate video on the Chinese or US stock markets. But the bottom line is that investors, especially those with the scale of Mr. Dalio's portfolio, need exposure to the markets that are booming and will become the biggest in the world in the near future. China is likely to get there very soon, so he is taking exposure there. The Chinese stock market has come down because of government intervention, especially in tech stocks, and he made these changes very recently. So he is taking advantage of buying what he sees as undervalued assets in the Chinese market.
You might say, "Great, Ray Dalio has billions of dollars and is investing in China, but what does that have to do with me as an Indian investor?" This section is for you. Here are a few things to understand. The key point from Mr. Dalio's changing strategy is that he believes tech stocks are overvalued. If you have invested heavily in tech stocks in India, please do a more thorough analysis. I'm not saying they are good or bad, but do your own due diligence. Second, we are in a high-inflation environment. Mr. Dalio has taken money out of the S&P 500 and put it into everyday brands, because those brands should grow in a high-inflation environment. So if, as a retail investor, you currently keep your money in fixed deposits, you are, to be honest, losing out. Please take your money out of FDs and invest in good brands. Third, a bull run in India is going to happen. It might not happen in the next five years, but it could happen in the next 15 to 20 years, and when it does, your money will grow a lot, but only if you have invested in businesses. And the way to invest in businesses is through the stock market. So learn about the stock market, invest in the right brands, and also invest in midcap and small-cap stocks. Invest in companies that will benefit from the growth of India's middle class. If you make the right bets, your money can grow substantially. We often talk about multi-baggers. There is no magic here: you invest in the right companies at the right time, and they grow into multi-baggers. I believe this is India's time. If the Indian middle class grows with a push from international markets, there is a very high likelihood that if you pick the right bets now and learn and invest in the stock market, your money could grow 4x, 5x, even 6x in a fairly short span.
Now, what risks should you watch for as an investor in India? India's debt-to-GDP ratio is very high, one of the highest in the world. When countries like India or other emerging economies take on debt, markets worry about whether they can repay it. The whole world takes on debt, but when the US does, the world is comfortable because it's seen as a very strong economy, and the same goes for China. But if Indian or other emerging-market governments keep borrowing more and more, people start to worry whether those countries can repay. So it becomes a concern if the debt becomes unmanageable, for a wide range of reasons: if the government is not disciplined, if it shows poor fiscal prudence, if it prints more and more currency, and so on. If that scenario plays out, the Indian stock market is going to suffer, and you and I as small retail investors can't do much at that point. So keep track of how the Indian government manages its debt. It's very important to understand that debt needs to be under control. If it goes out of control, get out of the stock market at that stage.
Final point: you might ask which sectors I'm bullish on for the next one or two decades. I am very bullish on Indian banking stocks, on India's consumer durables industry, and on India's EV sector. These are the three major bets I'm making. Of course, there are multiple good stocks outside these industries as well, so please do your own due diligence and make your own calls. But do invest, and learn about investing. I hope you enjoyed the video. Give it a thumbs up and leave a comment, and I'll see you next time.
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