저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인이 10만달러 이상에서 대폭락 중이며 영구적 하락 가능성을 주장. 근거는 레버리지 담보대출 청산, ETF 자금 유출, 비트코인 재무 기업(마이크로스트래티지 등)의 매수 중단과 디스카운트 거래, 금 강세로 인한 '디지털 금' 서사 붕괴. 과거 사이클보다 하락폭 클 것이라고 봄.
다듬은 글
So Peter, are you joining us on a day when Bitcoin is completely collapsing? So it's Friday evening my time and it's close to 80K right now, about 82 83K. And a few weeks ago, you said on X that Bitcoin holders should get out above 100K before an implosion. So seems to have been a bit precient there.
But what makes you so confident though that Bitcoin's latest slump now signals a permanent decline rather than a temporary pullback? Well, you know, Bitcoin has a history of, you know, coming back from the dead. So, I can't count it out completely, but I think that the situation today potentially looks a lot more dire than it has in the past.
So, I think there's a lot more downside now than there was uh during previous cycles. I think what's going to drive it is going to be three things. One is the the leverage, two is the ETFs, and three are the Bitcoin treasury funds. And none of these really existed during the prior big down cycles. And also of course the amount of money here that's being lost is much greater because we're falling from 126,000 peak.
Uh so that market cap was a record high. So even if we have a similar percentage decline that we've had in the past, the dollar value of what's lost is significantly higher. So you know we could go after, you know, those those uh different factors one at a time. But so the first one I think is is let's say the leverage.
I think that what's developed over the past year or two is companies uh have been able to accept Bitcoin as collateral and to loan money against Bitcoin. And I think a lot of Bitcoiners have been encouraged to deposit their Bitcoin onto these platforms uh because they were so confident that Bitcoin could only go up, especially with Donald Trump and a Bitcoin president and a strategic reserve and all these Bitcoin treasury companies and all the hype.
I don't think that Bitcoiners were that concerned about a big decline in their Bitcoin. uh but they did want to harvest some of the gains and enjoy some of those gains. They didn't want to pay capital gains taxes and they didn't want to give up their Bitcoin, right? The number one rule of Bitcoin is don't sell it, right?
So, if you never sell your Bitcoin, you know, you're going to you're living in your parents' basement. You know, you you got nothing. You know, you're like a popper, but you got all this money on paper. So, I think a lot of people uh put up their Bitcoin, borrowed money, and you know, spent it to pay their bills or they took vacations or they bought a car, maybe they bought a house, depending on, you know, how much Bitcoin they put up.
And so, I think that all that Bitcoin is going to get liquidated and and so the people who didn't want to sell their Bitcoin at 100,000, 110,000, 120,000 are going to be forced to sell it at much lower prices. you know, maybe 50,000 or 40,000 or who the hell knows where where it's going to go in this initial, you know, could go lower than that.
So, there's much more leverage now, I think, than we've had in previous declines that will accelerate. So, that's number one. Number two are the ETFs, which really didn't exist until the beginning of 2024. And the ETF investors are not diehard, you know, Bitcoin maxis, you know, I mean, if you really believe in Bitcoin, you don't own an ETF.
It defeats the whole purpose of Bitcoin to be, you know, self-custody. Why do you want to put your Bitcoin with a third party, right? Doesn't make any sense. But the people who were doing that just wanted to speculate on Bitcoin. They didn't care about, you know, the supposed advantages of Bitcoin. They just thought it was going up and they figured they'll buy it.
And there was so much hype in the financial media. There was so much FOMO. A lot of people got into Bitcoin uh ETFs. And in fact, a lot of the money came out of gold ETFs and came out of gold stocks to to pile into these Bitcoin ETFs. And I think that as Bitcoin really starts to break down, a lot of those, you know, Johnny come lately, uh, who jumped on a bandwagon, when they're down 20, 30, 40%.
You know, I think these guys are going to cut their losses. They're going to say, "You know what? Didn't work out. Let me take my chips off the table. You know, I'll go to another casino. I'm I'm, you know, maybe I'll I'll buy something else. Maybe they'll go back to gold, their gold stocks. I don't know." But I think that selling is going to overwhelm the market because there could be so much of it so fast there's no way to absorb it because all that buying, those inflows happened over a couple of years.
The outflows can happen over a couple of weeks. And while you had, you know, the the whales, the OGs who were happy to feed their Bitcoin into that ETF demand, I don't see the deep pockets that are willing to buy all that Bitcoin. And and so that's going to kill it. And then I think all these uh uh Bitcoin treasury companies that have sprung up over the past year that have been buying Bitcoin and borrowing money and issuing stock to buy Bitcoin, that whole business model is going to collapse.
So that new demand is going to go away. But a lot of those companies may have to start selling the Bitcoin that they bought. And in fact, Micro Strategy, I don't know where the the pain is where they have to start selling. Eventually, they will. But the most significant thing is that Micro Strategy is going to stop buying.
And when they can no longer buy Bitcoin because they can no longer sell stock at a premium because they're going to be trading at a discount to their NAV, the whole investment case for a micro strategy falls apart because they can no longer generate, you know, a Bitcoin yield, which was a deceptive term anyway because it's not really a yield, but they won't be able to do it when it's at a a discount.
And then actually there's a fourth thing that we didn't really have in the previous cycles, and that is the bull market in gold. Because one of the reasons that that Bitcoin attracted a lot of attention and a lot of money was because when it came on the scene around 2010 2011, that's when gold peaked out at 1900.
And gold basically traded in a range from 2011 to 2024. Didn't go anywhere. And that was when Bitcoin, you know, really had the spotlight to itself. The promoters were able to say, "Look at gold. It's going nowhere. It's dead. It's old school. Bitcoin is the new gold. Bitcoin is gold 2.0. It's the fastest horse in the race.
Forget about gold. You know, you got to buy Bitcoin. And as Bitcoin continued to go up and gold didn't, you know, that narrative gained traction and people were buying it. Now look at this year. Bitcoin is down, I don't know, let's say 5 10% on the year, something like that. I'm not sure exactly. It's moving so fast.
Gold is up better than 50% on the year. And so now all of a sudden real gold is doing really really well. And so if real gold is doing well and fake gold, Bitcoin, fool's gold is not, why buy
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