저자: Paul · 외국인
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엔비디아를 8개 필라 스크리닝과 자체 DCF 툴로 분석. 과거 5년 FCF 기준 적정 시총 약 840억달러로 현재 약 7200억달러 대비 과대평가로 판단, 보수적 가정(매출성장 5%, 마진 25~27%, PER 14~18)에서 주가 약 33달러(-90% 수준 하락) 도출. 하지만 채널은 소프트웨어 구독·트레이딩 커뮤니티 홍보 중심이며, 차트상 단기 매매 설명도 포함.
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we will analyze nvidia as a company and its stock we'll show you the financials of what this company makes and where they're going we'll to show you what you should be paying for nvidia moving forward and if you want to trade this company at a quicker pace we will join mo with the charts and all the trends to make money on the swings this huge company to a couple guys that own and operate over 100 million dollars in real estate multiple businesses and stocks and they will help us and guide us through a mindset approach of value investing approach whether we should be buying or avoiding a company like nvidia what do you think paul all right follow our three personal accounts did a great interview with mr preprice have a great picture on there i have a great sweater just look at it like it do the whole thing and it's funny because people are like why isn't paul let me comment it's like because i've seen on on moe's instagram account all the comments there i'm like i just i want this to be my person then i got another message from them saying you know your instagram account isn't what i expected to be i think it's a little misleading and like no it's not misleading i've told everybody i don't talk about anything investing wise in my instagram account ever basically so nvidia is the leading designer of graphics processing units paul you knew this so back to what i was saying so follow us on instagram however i'm not going to talk about anything investing i will be doing solely about my dogs and other useless things so nvidia let's go to the um eight pillar software or exclusive software yep nvidia corp look at this stock last year it had a low of 115 and a high of 346.
that's kind of sick five year on this go back to 2017. oh geez 25 bucks uh-huh yeah all right 720 billion dollar company it's a 720 billion dollar company nobody's ever heard of pillar number one we want the five-year pe under 22.5 this one's close it's 166. that's an x player number two we want the is 13.7 not surprised there that's a check mark they do a very good job of investing the capital that's invested in the business which is through debt and equity now a cute little dividend of 400 million dollars they could easily afford that because right above in our exclusive software i put our free cash flow because remember guys dividends are not guaranteed you have to compare it to the free cash flow the last five years they've done 4.2 billion a year in free cash flow this eats up less than 10 percent that comment just shook me paul i'm sitting here dumbfounded the 720 billion dollar company that no one's ever heard i mean the normal person we we we talked about tesla all the time and four-year-olds know what tesla is and grandparents love looking at tesla's but this is just wild i mean yeah nobody knows media crazy so pillar number three we want to go to the income statement of our exclusive software and we're gonna go look at revenue growth of the last five years nine billion to twenty four yeah it's pretty good now keep in mind look at this big jump right here 14 to 24 billion for a big company like this i've got to wonder how much of this is from acquisitions so i'm going to quickly skip to the cash flow statement on our exclusive software big acquisition in 2020.
yes they did a big acquisition 8.5 billion dollars so that is why their revenue jumped up so big i'm on the acquisitions disposition section of the investing section right there their first acquisition reported in the last 10 years 8.5 billion so keep that in mind we're looking at the revenue growth total number four net income growth of the last five years we go back to the income statement scroll a little bit to the bottom we look at net income 2.6 to 8.2 billion you gotta like this paul i am check mark there but remember look at last year went from 3.8 to 8.2 that acquisition probably helped out a lot and the market for computers and products for the computer and supplies are very limited prices are up they're probably selling a ton so keep that in mind as well pillar number five is shares outstanding guys a silent killer on investing we want shares going down so we're not being diluted five years ago they had 2.41 billion shares last year 2.5 that's an x so there's slightly not by much diluting owners but 10 years ago is about 2.5 today it's about 2.5 i'm not as concerned they seem like they're probably going to be more responsible even though this company is extremely expensive i could understand them issuing more shares they are not doing so we use these pillars to screen stocks we want to know do they make money if we're buying the company as a whole we will continue with pillar number six which is their debt paul tell us about it all right so the debt here's what we do we go to the main page of our exclusive software we go to the five-year average free cash flow because remember guys debt on any company is like debt for you personally the more debt you have the more likely you are to go bankrupt when recessions happen things like that we want the companies that have low debt so they don't get called on them they don't have financial issues and they don't have these problems going under so we take that five year average free cash flow number we multiply it by five 21 billion dollars so we want their total long-term liabilities under 21 billion so what do we do we go to the balance sheet of our exclusive software we scroll to the bottom 13.2 billion check mark there so just on their average of the last five years they can pay up their debt a little over three years that's pretty awesome pillar number siete paul is it siete says okay go on killer numero says cash flow we want to see cash flow growth and free cash flow guys is cash from operations lost with it you can pay back you can buy share invest in yourself and pay dividends pillar number seven is siete paul oh we are in siete we are in seven i thought we were at six you're right duolingo has failed me i'm sorry i thought we were on six keep going baby please tell me you googled the mexican no i'm doing i'm doing my head over here like you know okay okay you're right i thought we were on six i'm sorry four years of spanish paul don't mess with me you know this all right uh pillar number painty dose all right so i've added this line to our to our cash flow statement because i don't want you guys to do the math of cash from operations unless your capital expenditures 2.6 billion to 7.1 check mark there so they are growing their free cash flow quite considerably pillar numero ocho thank you espn ocho go ahead paul what we want to do here now is we want to we want to get a value for the company as a starting point so we basically want to find a market cap we want to pay for this puppy correct now this number doesn't mean it's set in stone but we pick 20 as a starting point we take the five-year average free cash flow 4.2 billion and we multiply by 20 and we get 84 84.2 billion dollars oh dear god um yeah versus 800 billion 17 yeah 720.
oh 720. sorry okay massive x now guys it sounds like oh pull the stock's not gonna fall ninety percent this is stupid oh there's no chance that happens okay cool go do your research about tech stocks in the early 2000's and see which ones fell ninety percent look at stocks in the last 10 years which ones have fallen 70 80 percent it's possible to happen at the end of the day this is just math now here's our eight pillars to have for those who don't want to do the math this is only available in our software um biggest ones here are right there valuation numbers so i look at this saying now let's go to the stock analyzer tool again the most popular the most powerful part of our software the one that everybody loves the most every investment's the present value of our future cash flows and those present values are all we don't know what's going to happen in the future we have to make assumptions so we go to our stock analyzer tool we're going to put assumptions in and see what we should pay for the stock today based on those assumptions so nvidia let's go on 10-year analysis revenue growth uncle moe 15 16 17 not 64.
uh well i was debating between 15 and 65 but i went with 15. okay so why 15. remember they had a big jump in revenue because of an acquisition and they're a large they're a big company um so 15. let's do 15 revenue yeah compare it to what we are at today so what's um what's the revenue right now the revenue right now is 24.25 billion that would take them to 98 billion dollars yeah in 10 years or seven in 10 years 10 years so they would be what's the market size for remember one thing right now they're currently one-third the size of intel so do we think that they're good that their their revenue is going to be more than intel's in 10 years for something that's driven more by intel than by nvidia do you think what i'm saying like in the pc world in in the in the world of maybe it is but i look at it going let's take out their their acquisition their revenue growth was well under 15 taking out their acquisition okay so all right my numbers are really different put them in mine are five seven nine all right because again i wanna be conservative and buy companies that are selling from far below that let's do this let's go with let's go with mo on the five let's just do this let's do my numbers in the low and we'll do mo uh the high will do their 15 cause to me 15 16 17 isn't much different okay for a company that's this big yeah if you're getting lost at home which sometimes i do during the show is you have to realize when paul says conservatives we want to find a company and then buy it for much less than it's currently valued by the world that's how you make money so with so many companies out there we want to find those very few those bangers that we can buy for far less than their that they're currently priced which yeah that might not be the case go ahead paul and mo and i are discussing revenue growth numbers somebody might sit there and say paul i'm at zero i'd be asking the same question my point is a big chunk of the revenue growth was from the acquisition over the last 10 years and a big chunk was also from increased demand last year for computer products that alone probably could have led to seven eight nine percent of their six of their 21 oh you were saying someone might say zero i think someone might say 30 percent revenue growth well no somebody might say to me paul if you want to be conservative do zero percent yeah i'm just sitting there saying i do think the chip market will grow faster than inflation over the next 10 years and inflation's three to three and a half four percent five five ten and i'm gonna go high with with moe's fit 10 and 15 revenue growth i just don't think that's realistic considering the last two years have been the biggest chunk of the revenue growth over the last 10.
that's where i get a kill can be going well it was an acquisition and it was a big chip market which i don't think is sustainable profit margin go ahead mo you think the profit margin will stay the same it probably probably pretty close to the 10-year number yeah my i was going to put 25-26-27 okay same with free cash flow yes p e um 14 16 18 and a large company okay and return 12 and a half percent because again guys you can buy an etf and make nine or ten percent so give yourself margin of safety and a reason to buy an individual stock analyze so even on most 15 assumption number 87 says no the price on my low number it's 33 and guess what guys we came with a market cap times 20 of a 90 drop what's a 90 drop of uh 288 it would take us to 28 bucks i look at it going yeah it probably seems about right i think uninformed people in the comments are gonna say you're just freaking nuts paul i mean i'm nuts i'm nuts because i don't think nvidia is going to be a 100 billion dollar revenue business in the next 10 years i guess i'm nuts the point is if you buy every big company like this based on their best years of growth you're going to end up not doing very well i see that's it there's 10 000 companies out there make conservative assumptions on conservative but reasonable assumptions i don't think as much as 5 is conservative i think it's reasonable the reason we created the software was exactly for this because people watch the videos want to do their own analysis when they see me do this so we created a software so people could do this you get everything you see here on the everything money channel on the other money page all our tools plus all the ones coming up you get over ni you get all the april analysis that stock analyzer tool we can put in 50 stocks at once and tells you how they all look as a portfolio all this plus exclusive daily content we have one two three videos a day that we release only to our users of our software you get it all in mobile form all of this is available in your mobile app all for only 90 cents per day 90 cents per day if you can increase your returns or decrease your losses by one or two percent a year that could lead to hundreds of thousands even millions of dollars in extra net worth for only 90 cents a directly so sign up wait 90 cents a day this is a no-brainer less than a cup of coffee okay paul if uh you're looking to trade nvidia at a quicker pace you can join mo in the bid nas nation our trading tier of our our community well what's going on over there with these charts these confusing charts that are not so confusing if you just watch and pay attention votes go forward true trading 101 series so this i zoomed out this far because a lot of people in april going through summer the bid nasty nation caught a lot of this run it was pretty awesome so we're at all-time highs and when this started springing up to all-time highs it was every single day there was a move to the side and i said guys this is going to pull back to this level of about 265 because there's a very tiny gap right here and we're getting back to that level it it basically touched it uh two days ago so when you get these flagpole patterns you get pullbacks it just happens that way same thing would happen with tesla right now if you wanted to this is what i would tell you to do come over here on a daily chart look where we're coming into the sweet spot i would wait until this thing moves right into the sweet spot get some engulfing candle sticks go to these all-time highs just grab a couple dollars out of there and that's actually a pretty big move and that's how you make money on this right now more so than that even easier you can come over here on a 15 minute chart and learn to day trade this and paul i think we might we should think about putting this in our day trading portfolio because you get a lot of movement on this yesterday you got a big move at the end of the day and today you could have shorted this in the 11 o'clock hour and you could still be in it right now because your stochastic is still moving below 20 percent you're getting good selling volume and you're getting these engulfing oh really you still be in it what's the price currently so we would have probably entered here at um two hold on let me look on so keep in mind guys when you're watching this chart 290 it's not even close to the beginning of the fall and that's the great thing about chart reading you're not going to get the high you're not going to get the low so 290 what's that currently right now it's at 84.75 and our stochastic down here is at point seven four percent that's a two percent gain so far and we're still in it guys and we're still in it so here's a picture of you a month ago with your frowny face unsupported flagpole pattern here on this rise on uh on uh nvidia video yeah i hear you are saying that so that's uh that's so funny let's go back to the the long-term chart and look if you're interested in trading paul has started a new series where he's putting up 500 000 of your own money to learn is it momentum training paul or no so stay tuned on the channel as paul trades i have a gajillion dollars go ahead mel there you go there was that there was that rise and here was that fall it came right back down so if you wanted to do it make it more accurate there it is so that's what happens but there's different ways to trade this stock this is a very good stock right now because it's so volatile it can give you that give you those big days of gains big days of losses from a day trading perspective so if you want to learn how to day trip if you want to follow paul and myself on his little day trading journey come and join the bid nest nation you get the trading 101 series which gives you all of the rule which is six stocks that i go through every single day with you and give you daily updates my exclusive monthly saturday seminars in the discord community of 950 plus people that's our take on a video find a thumbs up join the community you're gonna love the software and we will see you when we update this stock next watch more videos bye
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