Fed shifting to dual-mandate of the labor market and inflation, says Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian

요약 보기

파월의 잭슨홀 연설은 비둘기파적이었으나 시장은 고용 중시 단일 책무로 과도하게 해석해 공격적 인하를 가격에 반영. 이는 내부 모순이며 변동성 확대 가능성. 연준은 최적의 선택지를 유지하고 목적지를 명시하지 않음. 과거 긴축 후 연착륙은 드물었고 이번 긴축은 4연속 75bp 인상을 포함. 경제는 회복탄력적이나 연착륙 확률은 약 55%로 우세하지만 지배적이지는 않음. PCE, 소매 실적, 고용지표 확인 필요.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. well joining us now in his first interview since that Jackson whole speech is Muhammad Lan he's chief economic adviser of allons Muhammad it's great to have you on overtime welcome thank you for having me Morgan so that's exactly where I want to start because you are arguing that we could see more volatility you put this opet out uh over the weekend has pal was pal as doish as the market has interpreted to be so certainly he was very doish if you think of the three most quoted phrases of his speech one is the time has come for policy adjustment I think everybody agreed with that and agrees with that second was the direction of travel is clear people agreed with that and still agree with that the third one is what surprised people is that we do not seek or welcome further Cooling in labor market conditions we enforced that with the perception that he declared victory over inflation and the view in the market place is that this is a single mandate fed that the only thing the FED is worried about is higher unemployment and that's why you've had this very aggressive pricing of cuts validated and as Mike Santo just said it is very aggressive pricing and if that occurs it's because something went wrong in the economy so that is why the in there's an in there's an inherent inconsistency in how the market has interpreted that speech so is it fair to think that part of this pal pivot has been to a central bank that is more of a dual mandate Central Bank or is it just that the single ma mandate so to speak has shifted from inflation to labor so certainly what they want is to shift from a single mandate that was focused on inflation being too high and we got to take it down to a dual mandate that has risks on either side that's what they want where they've ended up because of the way they've communicated is that now we still think of we in the marketplace still think of the FED as a single mandate but we repl we replace higher inflation with higher unemployment and that is critical Morgan because it means that the FED is going to be incredibly dovish and that's how the market has priced it so we've been seeing this softening labor market and we've seen that unemployment rate move up and move up pretty quickly but I realize we're still at very low levels historically speaking but labor also tends to be a lagging indicator and can change very quickly so if we talk about the uh the lagged effects of monetary policy when you're tightening what does that mean when you're loosening uh and what does that mean for the possibility of recession risk increasing here so there's lots of question marks one we don't know whether we felt the full effects of what was a very aggressive interest rate hiking cycle because they started late so we don't know whether we F felt the full effects we also know that it's going to take time for the cuts to go all over the economy now the market is doing some of the heavy lifting for the Fed so there's lots of question marks also the FED is retaining maximum optionality so pal didn't talk about the destination didn't even talk about what the first stop looks like and yet the market feels very confident about the destination and how quickly we're going to get there so that's why there's a lot priced in right now um and we don't know what the labor Market's going to do so look at pce this Friday look at the drops report the following Friday but especially look at the retail earnings we're going to get tomorrow Wednesday and Thursday that's going to be really important to get a sense of the strength of the consumer okay have we ever seen a tightening cycle and I realize we're at the end of it we're we're coming out the other side now and again to use the word pivot but have we ever seen a tightening cycle that was this aggressive that didn't result in a recession No in fact we've only seen two soft Landings one in the 60s and one in 1995 they they are not frequent events and let's not forget that this hiking cycle had four consecutive 75 basis point hikes as they were catching up which we haven't seen having said that I am among the people who have been very impressed by the resilience of the economy because of all the positive supply side shock we've had in the last two years so this is a resilient economy to be clear soft Landing is still the most probable outcome but it's still only about 55% so it is the most probable but it's not the dominant outcome still