저자: Malcolm및패널 · 외국인
요약 보기
Bill Ackman의 Pershing Square가 Netflix 주식 300만 주(포트폴리오 약 4.9%)를 재매수했다는 소식을 다룸. 2022년 매도 후 큰 손실을 봤으나 이번에는 스트리밍 1위 지위와 가격 대비 이익 성장(내년 약 40%) 근거로 재진입. 패널들은 가격이 20배 PER 수준으로 싸고 광고·가격인상·비밀번호 공유 제한으로 수익화가 가능하다고 주장. 일부는 장기 보유·추가 매수를 권유하며, 단기 방향은 불확실하다고 봄.
다듬은 글
I'm back with a new video. Thank you for watching. If it's not difficult, subscribe to the channel and share the video. This is not investment advice. Do your own research before doing anything. So today we're going to talk about Netflix stock, friends. Bill Ackman is taking on Netflix again after huge losses in 2022.
So, let's listen to CNBC and see what they have to say about Netflix. Let's see what happens. Netflix today. Shares rose 3.5% after news that Pershing Square revealed in its latest letter to investors that it had returned to the company. 3 million shares. This is about 4.9% of the firm's portfolio. And this is a sequel.
The premiere, if you will, took place in 2022 and ended quickly, as Bill Ackman sold his stake 3 months later when Netflix reported its first subscriber decline in a decade . We made a little wall here to show you. They suffered losses of $400 million on this position. So, it was a premiere. I think we all remember her well .
Remember, the shares then soared to $700, and then simply collapsed. And Ekman said, "I've had enough." He then stated: "We have lost confidence in our ability to predict the company's future prospects with a sufficient degree of certainty." It seems they found something because they decided to make a sequel.
On Wednesday, in a letter to investors, they announced the purchase of 3 million shares. I already said, this is almost 5% of the portfolio, which was also partially revised, which is also an interesting story. And now they state: "When we first invested in early 2022, investors feared an escalation of the content race among the many new players in the streaming market." Since then, Netflix has effectively won the streaming wars.
Their subscriber base now far exceeds that of their competitors, and this scale becomes self-reinforcing . And they can, quote, "spend more on content than their competitors." So, Malcolm, let's start with you. Ekman returned to this action. I don't know what to think. I think it's great that today we have a 4% increase in this news.
It suits me. I'm glad I bought them during the downturn because now I have plenty of room for further growth . I don't know what it was that he saw that brought him back into the business, because the growth in the number of subscribers slows down exactly when he re- enters this name. I think they're probably looking for ways to monetize the 300 million followers they already have instead of chasing new ones .
So I'll wait and see what other notes they release, but I'm not sure it's necessarily going to be a real boost to the stock like someone else's input. I think it's, um, a statement that they've won the race, and the others... You mentioned what's happening with follower growth right now, but they've only pulled away in follower numbers and growth rates from competitors that seemed more resilient, at least in early 2022, and now they're back in a hotly contested stock that's had a very bad streak.
This is the line to Shake Shack, lined up to this company. This movie received bad reviews. Nobody needs my opinion. After Josh, because he owns the stock. Yes, I am holding a long position. I know it's a classic. Honestly , this is classic Bill Ekman. He doesn't look for any obscure deals, or complications, or pull tiny mid- cap companies out of a hat.
This is not his method of investing. He finds incredible businesses with an " economic moat" and a great brand that fall on hard times or face changing market sentiment, he is patient, waits, and wins. And I've seen him do it, not always, but I've seen him do it with a lot of big brand promotions. We saw this in the past with Chipotle, where everyone thought the sanitation violations would go on forever.
They fixed the business, changed it for the better, and made a lot of money. And I think he'll be successful with Netflix too. As a fellow shareholder, I hope the sequel isn't "The Squid Game." But it is 39% below its peaks. He is trying to find the bottom. Did he find it at a level above 60? Maybe I found it.
These are stocks trading at a price that is 20 times higher than projected earnings. The RSI is currently at 58. Although there was an increase last week, there is still a long way to go, far from the overbought zone. Profits are expected to grow by 42% next year. How many stocks in the S&P 500 index can you find that can increase profits by 40% and trade at a multiple of 20?
I can name two. Uber is one of them, which also has Appian, and Netflix. There are probably not many of them. So, are there any risks? Of course, there are risks. Is there competition? Yes, we know. But in the end , if they deliver, if they execute on their plan, the stock is too cheap. They have, they should be more expensive.
I don't know if they'll go back to 140, but they definitely shouldn't be 70 each. This is what I was talking about about monetizing your existing subscriber base instead of spending a bunch of money on acquiring new ones. You already have 300 million customers. That's where the profit growth will come from.
And they won't go anywhere . Their churn rate is very low. They've been raising, they've been raising prices almost every year for the last 10 years. And they added this subscription tier with ads for those who said "enough," who did n't want to pay more. They removed the ability to share passwords.
They used all these levers. Um, the advertising business is growing. Ugh, I don't think they can afford another price increase right now, maybe that's why the stock has fallen over the last 6 months, but Malcolm, to your point, I don't think it's necessary. They have sports, they have live entertainment shows, they have incredible So, um, as far as Netflix goes, um, just look at the schedule.
Um, let's go back 5 years on the chart. So, when Bill Ackman sold, I guess I bought Netflix. Um, I think I took it about... it was, it was really low. I think I was buying Netflix somewhere around the $50 mark , I think I started getting Netflix somewhere around there. I, I, it was somewhere here because I didn't buy it right away.
I know I took it somewhere in the low 50s or something. So, I think I took, I think I started taking it around the 23rd, because I remember, I remember when Bill Ackman sold those stocks . But, you know, Netflix was going through, you know, turbulence and all that. Now, the stock went through, I think, a 10 to 1 split or something.
And you know, the stock was around 140. Then it just, you know, crashed to the bottom or something like that . So, the stock has fallen quite a bit, you know, but I've been accumulating Netflix for a while now and I've always felt like Netflix dominates the screen, you know, when it comes to, well, you know, any of these, uh, platforms like Roku and others, I've felt like Netflix is number one, no matter what .
But like I said, I've been on Netflix for a long time. I have a lot, well, you know, a fair amount of stocks. And I continue to buy them now. They've really jumped up recently, because at one time they were hovering around $60 for a while. And, you know, I was buying them up a little bit , but if you look at the results since the beginning of the year, Netflix was probably trading somewhere close, let's see.
So, he was trading somewhere around here, around this area. Let me see. I'm trying to find another chart, let me choose a period of one year, maybe it will be a little easier to see. Here. He just started bargaining. It traded low for a while. And then they released the earnings report and it went down a little bit more, but, you know, it was here at 140 and then we just started going down.
Fall, and I think I've been accumulating them for quite a while, you know, buying small shares of stock every now and then. But ultimately, I think, you know, Netflix dominates when it comes to streaming and stuff like that , online streaming . I use this service. I like him. There are lots of Netflix movies and other content that I can watch.
But these are stocks, people, as I said before, that will return to the 140 mark. When—I don't know, but hopefully not too soon. I want to accumulate as many stocks as possible before they go back to 140. But I see these stocks in 2-3 years. Maybe you're looking at these stocks and in a couple of years they'll be around $200, maybe $250, and you'll regret not buying them when they were here at $70 because, you know, I still think Netflix dominates the streaming space.
I don't think anyone can compare to them . There are other companies, but I think Netflix is dominant, and having said that, people, look at Netflix, do your own research, but I think, you know, that price is still cheap. The stock was once worth 140. So it's still cheap. I mean, you're still looking at half the value, it still has a lot of growth ahead of it.
And as you said , they say it can grow by how much more? By 40 or something percent, 39, or whatever it is. Hey, I'm talking about this being a stock worth buying, putting away, forgetting about, and looking back in 3-4 years and you'll thank yourself for it. But at the same time, I want this promotion to be on your radar . This is the DC channel. See you in the next video.
Comments 0