저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 연준의 제로금리와 양적완화가 거대한 버블을 만들었고, 이 버블이 터지며 스태그플레이션과 달러 붕괴가 올 것이라는 비관론. 과거 주장: 2008년 금융위기는 연준이 닷컴버블 이후 금리를 인위적으로 낮게 유지해 생긴 주택버블 때문이었다고 주장. 당시 낙관론자들(Laffer, Kudlow, Moore 등)을 비판. 현재 상황 진단: 연준 대차대조표가 약 4.5조달러까지 늘었고, 최근 4주간 1,800억달러 증가해 사실상 QE4라고 주장. 국채는 2,300조달러 규모로 재정적자가 폭증하며 금리 상승 압력이 커졌으나, 연준은 금융기관 붕괴를 막기 위해 채권을 사들여 금리를 억제하고 있다고 설명. 예측 및 리스크: 경기침체가 오고 달러가 폭락하며 채권시장도 무너져 스태그플레이션과 고강도 침체가 올 것이라 전망. 최종적으로 연준은 달러 방어를 위해 금리를 올릴지, 아니면 하이퍼인플레이션을 허용할지 어려운 선택을 하게 된다고 봄. 금 관련: 2011년 금이 1,900달러 부근까지 오른 배경으로 연준 정책이 일시적이라는 믿음이 있었다고 설명하며, 정책 신뢰가 무너지면 달러가 급락하는 구조를 강조. 출연자 전망: 개인 투자자는 연준에 기대지 말고 스스로 대비해야 하며, 버블이 꺼지는 과정에서 수익을 낼 수 있다고 주장. 자세한 내용은 오후 강연에서 다룬다고 예고. 참고: 본 영상은 2020년 3월 제작분으로, 명시된 예측 기간(1~3개월) 내 자산별 방향은 대부분 구체적으로 특정되지 않음.
다듬은 글
all right so in case there's a few people in this room that don't know this but the financial crisis of 2008 which I had been forecasting for some time and the great recession that ensued was caused predominantly by the Federal Reserve and the Federal Reserve did this by keeping interest rates artificially low in the aftermath of the bursting of the dot-com bubble which they also caused and and by doing that they were able to mitigate the recession that we had at that time now the recession would have been more severe or had the Fed done nothing but it would have been more constructive because we would have basically rebalanced the economy and had a real recovery rather than a bubble which is what we had but of course during that bubble very few people realize or understood that we were in a bubble right and the Federal Reserve you know lowered interest rates down to 1% artificially held them there for about a year and a half and then it was very slow in allowing rates to normalize right and during that time period we inflated this gigantic bubble but of course very few people particularly Republicans I understood what was going on because George Bush was the president and all the Republicans wanted to believe that we had this great economy and it was Bush's fault they were it was not his fault it was because of Bush policies he cut taxes and everything was great but I was going on financial television back when they still had me on and I was pointing out that this was all a bubble right that this was all gonna end in disaster because it was all a function of the artificial wealth created by the housing bubble which was because of the cheap money and as race eventually rose and mortgage race reset the housing market was gonna crash it was gonna take down the banking system and we'd have this fantastic recession and it would all get blamed on bush and I was saying this for years but most people were in denial just like they are today right Steven Moore is gonna be speaking right after me and he's gonna talk about how great the economy is well he was saying the same thing back in 2006 and 2007 just like all of his friends in fact art Laffer I'm not art Laffer rather larry cudlow right who is now the chief economic adviser to President Trump he was the chief economics cheerleader on television for President Bush I mean nobody was a bigger promoter of the bush bubble than Kudlow and i know that because i used to go on his show on a regular basis and argue with him and all of the other guests that what we were witnessing was not economic growth but a bubble masquerading as economic growth and that it was going to pop well the problem is the bubble that the Fed inflated this time is far bigger than the housing bubble and the economic collapse that is going to follow the bursting of this bubble is gonna be far more dramatic because the Fed didn't just lower interest rates to 1% they lowered them to zero and they didn't leave them there for a year and a half they left them there for seven or eight years and then rather than slowly normalizing interest rates they never normalized interest rates because the bubble was so big they couldn't do that and of course the Fed though was bluffing for years and years that they could normalize interest rates but but they were lying the Fed also was pretending that they can unwind their balance sheet because not only to defend lower interest rates to zero but we did three rounds of quantitative easing right the most recent one QE 3 and the Fed's balance sheet blew up to four and a half trillion dollars but the whole time they were doing this they were claiming it was an emergency it was temporary even from the very beginning when Ben Bernanke testified before Congress and somebody actually said hey you're monetizing the debt which was exactly what he was doing and then Bernanke denied that he was monetizing the debt because he said when you monetize the debt it's a permanent increase in the balance sheet we're just doing this temporarily we're gonna sell all of the Treasury that we're buying as soon as the emergency is over well here it is more than ten years later and none of those treasures have been sold they're still owned and in fact even though the Fed doesn't want to admit it they're already doing QE four right in the last four weeks the Fed's balance sheet has grown by a hundred and eighty billion dollars in four weeks right and the fence says that's not quantitative easing well when they were doing quantitative easing the balance sheet was growing at a much smaller pace than that QE 3 was 85 billion a month we did a hundred and eighty billion in in four weeks but if you go back to the beginning right when the Fed first started to pretend that they could normalize interest rates and shrink their balance sheet because I was warning from the very beginning that this was impossible that the minute the Federal Reserve embarked on this monetary policy of zero percent rates in QE that they could never reverse it because the problems that we had in 2008 were because of an excess of debt right when you keep interest rates artificially look at what when you hold interest rates artificially low you're enabling more debt to be taken on well if the problem was we had too much debt the solution was to allow the debt to default so that we can have less debt and allow the economy to restructure allow savings to be rebuilt but that would have resulted in a more painful recession and politically nobody wanted that so instead of you know swallowing the medicine we just took more drugs and so we had this bigger bubble but once the Federal Reserve encouraged all of this debt to be taken on there is no way that they can normalize rates without causing a much greater financial crisis than the one that we had in 2008 so I kept warning that these policies were gonna be never-ending that it would be QE infinity that we would never stop but the Federal Reserve kept pretending that they could that they could normalize interest rates well when 2015 began the end of 2014 everybody believed that the Fed was gonna raise rates three or four times in 2015 every but me all right I was saying I was still on TV once in a while back then I was coming out and saying the Fed is bluffing they can't raise rates so they're not even gonna try they're not gonna raise rates because there's too much debt they can't raise rates well the Fed didn't raise rates until December of 2015 and I think the only reason they did that was because by then people were starting to get worried why isn't the Fed raising rates what do they know that we don't know right and and they were gonna lose some credibility if they didn't raise rates so they finally raised weights once in December 2015 and the markets immediately tanked now that put the Fed on hold and in fact even though the markets went down everybody's still expected another 3 or 4 rate hikes in 2016 the Fed did not raise interest rates until December of 2016 and the only reason they did that was because Donald Trump was elected president right had Donald Trump not been elected president that would have been the only hike that the Fed did and I would have been right because I initially said when they hiked the first time that it was gonna be one and done and it would have been one and done because had it not been for the election of Donald Trump we would have been in a recession probably in the first half of 2017 and the Fed would have gone right back to zero and they would have gone right back to QE but when Donald Trump won that created a lot of false optimism with respect to the US economy and of course when Trump won everybody knew that we were going to get tax cuts what everybody didn't know was that we were also going to get increases in government spending I mean Donald Trump is one of the biggest spenders in history not only did he significantly increase spending on the military he's significantly increased spending on welfare so we have more welfare spending we have more warfare spending and of course nothing was actually cut so the entitlement you know bomb continues to explode and so we had this massive amount of fiscal stimulus and so during that time period where everybody was excited everybody thought this was gonna be great and we're getting tax cuts and you know we're gonna get deregulation in that environment the Fed was finally able do what he couldn't do you know under eight years of Obama which was raised interest rates and every time it not just interest rates up a quarter of a point nothing really bad happened so they kept doing it until you know finally they hit the straw that broke the camel's back and I can see this happening I actually was on Fox Business two days before the December rate hike in 2018 and I was on a panel there's a few other guys there and I told liz claman i was on her show i said that the hike that we're about to get in december is the last hike we're going to have and that was the first time i said that about any of the hikes after except for the first one where i thought it was one and done but as soon as Trump won I recognized that they were gonna be able to raise rates for a while but I can tell by December of 2018 that the Fed was done so I said on television this is the last rate hike that we're gonna have the very next thing that Fed is gonna do on rates is cut nobody thought that at that time everybody thought the Fed was gonna continue to raise rates in 2019 in fact I was on a panel in Vancouver in January and I said that the next thing the Fed is gonna do is cut rates and somebody thought that was so crazy they bet me a gold coin that I was wrong and you know I'm gonna collect that coin I think the next time I'm up in Vancouver because that's that's exactly what they did but on that show not only did I say that the next thing the Fed was gonna do was cut interest rates I said after that they're gonna go back to quantitative easing right and as I just said earlier that is exactly what they've done right the Fed is not willing to admit that right why doesn't the Fed want to admit that they're doing QE well because they don't want to admit that the economy is in such bad shape that it needs to be rescued with quantitative easing after all we did quantitative easing when we had the Great Recession we had a financial crisis why are we doing it now I mean if the economy is supposedly in a great place which is what jpowel keeps saying he keeps talking about what a great place the economy is in of course Ben Bernanke his you know before Yellen was saying the same thing in 2007 in fact the Fed was claiming the economy was in a great place in mid 2008 when we were already in a recession it's just that Ben Bernanke didn't know that and neither does Jay Powell but pal does not want to scare the markets into thinking that we need quantitative easing and of course you know the only reason that they started calling it quantitative easing was because they didn't want to tell the truth about what they were actually doing the first time which was monetizing government debt right they wanted to come up with a nicer way of explaining what they were doing but that's exactly what they're doing and what is it that caused the Fed to have to reverse monetary policy well the reason it had to start cutting interest rates was because the stock market was tanking again they had raised interest rates to the point where the markets could no longer handle it how high did we get two and a quarter two and a half is that normal no it's not even close to normal that's about what the inflation rate is at least the official inflation rate is so we have zero interest rates real interest rates in the United States that's not normal but also the economy started to implode look at what was happening with the housing market it was imploding the auto market was imploding already the the manufacturing the industrial economy is in recession right now already the the numbers on the on the economy are as bad as they were on manufacturing rather since 2009 and so the Fed had to try to stop the hemorrhaging in housing in autos because that's very sensitive to interest rates and by the way you know you have record record high auto debt so you also have this huge autumn bubble so the Fed had to start cutting interest rates to try to keep the air from coming out of those bubbles but what made them go back to quantitative easing it was the recent blow up in in in the in the swap market in the market for overnight funds well why is this happening well interest rates started to rise in fact short-term rates went as high as maybe 10% even though the Fed has got a target on Fed Funds of about 1 and 3/4 rates shot up why our rates shooting up because the deficits are exploding right the US government right now needs to borrow about a trillion dollars a month I mean there's a lot of money right we're where's that money coming from well we have massive deficits right the national debt in the last year has increased by about a trillion and a half right we've never seen anything like this I mean not even under Obama during the worst part of the Great Recession did we have budget deficits of this size right so we're running these huge deficits the the government is borrowing new more than a hundred billion dollars every month now you can't look at the official budget deficit numbers you have to look at how much the national debt is actually going up because the government elite they're consistent right they lie about everything and they can't even be honest about how much they're borrowing but if you actually look at the national debt you can see how much they're borrowing so they have to borrow all this money but they also have to refinance all the debt that's maturing because the national debt is financed at a very short duration and in fact one of the other things that candidate Trump said that thought that President Trump is doing the opposite is he promised to lengthen the maturity of the national debt instead he shortened it and so there's a there's a tremendous amount of of debt that has to roll over and there's not enough buyers there's no savings there so the markets want to bring up interest rates the markets want higher interest rates but the Fed doesn't want higher interest rates because everything is going to implode all of the big banks that they bailed out will fail again in fact the stress tests that the the Federal Reserve administered to all the banks there wasn't a single test that that factored in rising interest rates they only wanted to find out what would happen to the banks if we had a recession and interest rates went down but there wasn't a single test that that measured what would happen to banks if interest rates went up and the economy was in recession and the reason they did administer that test is that is because they knew that everybody was going to fail it so they didn't want to do it but now we're at a point where the Fed had to come back in and do quantitative easing they had to print money out of thin air and buy up all those bonds to prevent interest rates from rising which is what the market wants but the Fed does not want that because of the short term if now that is going to continue right the Fed is pretending it's not quantitative easing the balance sheet is now almost back up to four trillion and the the amount of money that the Federal Reserve is gonna have to create out of thin air to buy bonds is gonna be much bigger now because we have a much bigger debt bubble the national debt is twenty three trillion it was eight trillion when we had the last financial crisis we have a lot more corporate debt now than we had then a lot more consumer debt a student loan debt credit card debt auto debt as I said so it's a much bigger debt bubble and the Fed is gonna have to try to you know blow a lot more air into it the difference is this time it's not going to work everybody is convinced that it can work again well the last time when the Fed launched QE and went to zero percent interest rates gold was at a thousand which was an all-time record high because in the preceding decade it had risen from under three hundred to a thousand and the dollar was at an all-time record low in 2008 and so when they started this program initially the dollar rose and gold initially fell but then it went up to about 1900 in 2011 when people initially believed that the feds policies were gonna end a disaster which was the correct assumption but then everybody started to believe the Fed that defense policies worked but the oh the the belief that the policy worked was completely predicated on the fact that it was temporary and that it was reversible that the Fed was going to be able to normalize interest rates and shrink its balance sheet back down at free crisis levels well when the balance sheet is five trillion six trillion seven trillion when we're back at zero when we are back in recession and by the way this recession is gonna get blamed on Trump and we're gonna have a socialist president in 2021 with a very sympathetic socialist Congress that is gonna blame capitalism unfairly for this crisis just like they were able to blame it on the last crisis but when this happens nobody is gonna believe that it's temporary nobody is gonna believe that the Fed has this under control that they can reverse this policy and the dollar is going to crash and when the dollar crashes it's going to take the bond market with it and we're have stagflation we're gonna have a deep recession with rising interest rates and this whole thing is gonna come imploding down and then you know the Fed is gonna have to make a very difficult decision as to whether it ultimately tries to save the dollar and prevent it from becoming monopoly money and really raise interest rates and just you know allow everything to implode including forcing the US government to default on its obligations not only obligations to seniors as far as Social Security Medicare but actually obligations to bondholders to pay interest on the debt which it will be unable to do or the Fed is going to avoid or to try to avoid that the Fed is going to just you know end up with hyperinflation because they're not going to be willing to do what is necessary to prevent that from happening and so I think now I think I'm out of time but people now more than ever need to be prepared if you were blindsided by the 2008 financial crisis okay you know as long as you wrote it out the Fed saved you the Fed bailed you out by inflating an even bigger bubble but it's not gonna happen this time you got to bail yourself out now the Fed is not going to do it for you there's just one chance to get this right and not only can you preserve your wealth but you can actually profit as this bubble deflates and I'm going to be talking about that at what 130 in this room tonight so make sure or tints after noon so make sure you're back cuz that's where I'm really going to get into what's going to happen and how you can profit from it Thanks
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