저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
Marks는 좋은 자산을 사는 것보다 적절한 가격에 사는 것이 투자 성공의 핵심이라고 강조한다. 1978년 하이일드 채권 펀드 경험을 예로 들며, 감정(탐욕·공포)이 군중 행동을 만들어 역행 투자가 필요하고, 초과수익을 위해선 군중과 다르게 행동하며 틀릴 위험을 감수해야 한다고 말한다. 2008년 금융위기 때 공포 속에서도 자본을 투입한 경험을 언급한다.
다듬은 글
it's not what you buy it's what you pay mhm and success in investing doesn't come from buying good things but from buying things well MH and if you don't know the difference you're in the wrong business you went on to do a career where you lent money to bad companies people thought were bad and you made a lot of money doing that yes so how tell us what that experience was like well I was asked to start a high yield Bond Fund in 1978 which was really the beginning of that world and Mike milin had this idea that even a crappy company should be able raise money you see prior to 7778 it was impossible to do a bond financing for a company rated below investment grade Mike's idea was that and and it wasn't unique to Mike that even a crap company should be able to raise money in the bond market if it's willing to pay enough interest to compensate for the risk and that's that's what happened so now as you say now I'm investing in the worst public companies in America of course to the ratings yeah and making money steadily and safely so I I reached two important conclusions it's not what you buy it's what you pay and success in investing doesn't come from buying good things but from buying things well and if you don't know the difference you're in the wrong business literally so everything you buy should offer some combination of Excellence of quality MH and and or attractive price you don't want to buy a great company at a terrible price you don't want to buy you don't want to buy probably don't want to buy something which is uh uh horrible fundamentals at a at a really low seeming price it's the tradeoff that you're looking for I want to talk a little bit about um emotion for a second um and you've said that you you need to either be onot or act like you are and I wanted to go actually back to a story you talked about before which is that you this 2008 which a lot of people in this audience weren't here and I think if you weren't there you might not appreciate how scary that actually was I mean you went through the dominoes of all the banks falling but were you scared when you and Bruce were putting the capital to work how did you or if not how did you keep yourself from being emotional well first let me say If you think about the norm what happens things are going well the economy is performing well companies are reporting good earnings stock prices are rising everybody's optimistic and the longer this goes on people become more and more and more positive and and until they they buy here and when they run out of money then things turn around then eventually the economy weakens then the corporate profits aren't so good and start prices start going down and people start losing hope and they as as this continues they get more and more depressed and more panicky and they stop start fearing further losses until they sell out down here in other words they they they tend to buy more here and sell more here which is what the opposite of what we all should do my mother said how we buy low sell High yeah and and and uh so emotion is our enemy emotion tends to get us to do the wrong thing at the wrong time and we have to resist that and one thing I point out is that the the influences that affect the crowd and make it do what I just described those influences are Universal and I feel them too and you feel them too and everyone in here we read the same newspapers the news is the same for all of us in order to outperform by definition you have to depart from the crowd you have to hold a different position and you have to have resolve to do it and it's it you know it's just it can't be easy and you know I had a one of my colleagues came to me in 98 talking about ancient history long-term capital had just melted down and we had the rubal uh default and the and the Southeast Asian crisis and there was a lot of things going wrong and one of the guys who considers himself to be a very thought is that oak tree though right comes to me and he says this is it I think it's all over I think the financial system's going to melt down I think he he explains to me all these things and I said great thank you for sharing that with me now go back to your desk and do your job I I said a a battlefield hero is not somebody who's unafraid it's somebody who's afraid but he does it anyway I mean if you're in scary circumstances to be unafraid you got to have to be a nut but the key is can you be afraid and do your job anyway I was just going to ask you if you thought it helped that you had Each Other Well I think I think it's very important that we have each other and we Buck each other up yeah and and you need that because what I wanted to say yeah is Dave Swenson who for 35 years ran the the endowment at Yale and did a bang up job and he wrote a book called pioneering portfolio management I think it was in '98 or 9 and he said that successful investing requires the ad option of uncomfortably idiosyncratic positions everybody has has the same influences everybody thinks pretty much the same everybody anoints the same winners and the same and criticizes the same losers and obviously the tomorrow's winners are usually found on the pile of today's losers not on today's pile of today's winners but to prospect in today's pile of losers the things that everybody else are junk you have to be idiosyncratic and you have to take on idiosyncratic positions and it's a rare person who can do that and not feel some discomfort so I think that those two words uncomfortably idiosyncratic tell a huge part of the story um but you have to do it and you have to when you know when Leman goes under you have to buy you you can't sell mhm you actually once you originally introduced a philosophy or term like you to dare to be great and then you evolved that over time which was more Nuance can you walk us through that well I wrote this memo back in 04 called dare to be great and there was this guy who was really a con man who used to fly around America in AER Jet and he had these uh he dropped the stairs and these two vertically challenged people would get off and unroll a red carpet and a big banner that said there to be great and he would come into some small town and siphon up every money uh I forget what exactly what the scam was but anyway the point is in order to be a great investor you have to dare to be great but then around 2015 I I I said to myself you know but everybody dares to be great everybody's willing to be great and but it had it had come into another Focus for me so I wrote dare to be great too which I would recommend you read not one and and and I I said in order to be a great investor you have to dare to be different as I just explained you have to be willing to do some things that that are unpopular and by by definition will look crazy to to others you have to dare to be wrong because there's nothing you can do in the goal I think the goal in investing for professionals is to be above average it's investing is a funny business it's really easy to be average just buy an index fund it's really hard to be above average but if you want to be above average everything you do in the interest of being above average exposes you to the risk of being below average you overweight certain stocks that's potential error you avoid certain stocks that's potential error you go you diversify abroad versus the US that's potential error you you you buy High beta stocks low beta stocks Etc you hold some cash there's nothing you can do in the interest of being above average that does not expose you to the risk of being below average so if you dare to be different you have to be willing to be wrong
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