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there's a legacy of value creation and Innovation that we've always been at the Forefront of at least since America was founded so 1776 to now I think the reality is that debt to GDP will continue to increase I don't think a single politician can practically get elected by offering to cut entitlement spending to people that have spent their entire lives paying into a system so as a practical matter this thing will go up and I don't think the economy will stop I think that economics are a relative problem where you have to weigh countries against each other and what that means is the economic vibrancy the productivity the intellect all of those things where we have to compete with El Salvador we have to compete with Nigeria we have to compete with India we have to compete and in that context there is very little historical artifact that says that there's a breaking point so I just think that if You observe the moment it's not that what freebrook is saying is bad I'm not exactly sure that it's particularly actionable and I think the disproportionate amount of action is actually the opposite which is to reinflate the money supply to reinflate assets to create artificial prosperity and smear it to many many many people you have to think about how do you want to activate your view I can believe whatever I want but at the end of the day I don't want to act in a way that's against my economic best interest quite honestly so I believe that winning is measured in dollars and cents on these things and from that perspective I don't particularly like it I think I'm emotionally more aligned to Freebird but the Practical reality is I'm on the opposite side which says the governments will keep spending inflation will be here assets will keep inflating the M2 money supply will keep going up and on General along the United States and short every other country Jason calcadus is a venture capitalist an entrepreneur who has been accused of virtue Sigma feeling intended to demonstrate one's good character or the moral correctness of one's position on a particular issue there are a number of reasons why people might accuse Jason calcatus of virtue signal for example to make public statements about his support for social justice causes but he has also been criticized for his lack of concrete action on these issues additionally he has been used of using his platform to promote himself and his businesses rather than to genuinely advocate for social change that's ultimately whether or not Jason got canis is a virtue signaler is a matter of opinion there is no clear consensus on this issue and there is evidence to support both sides of the argument however it is important to note that virtue signaling can be a harmful practice as it can lead to people becoming desensitized to real social problems and make it more difficult to address them iaea for AI That's the international atomic energy agency so is that hyperbolic illusion is a Grandeur or right on target treatment well the interesting thing about the iaea is that what I learned recently from the CEO of Planet Labs will Marshall is that predecessor organization to the iaea is really this organization called pug wash and what that was Einstein and Bertrand Russell in the 50s post Hiroshima and Nagasaki bringing together academics to basically create a way to think about nuclear disarmament going forward just because they all saw the damage and there was a large framework that set up the current denuclearization treaties and then the iaea was set up after that and so I think that there's a thread here which is basically what he's saying is there's something around nuclear disarmament that is very similar to AI both in terms of its potential but obviously in terms of its risks and so there's like a whole monitoring framework there's a know your customer kind of framework these are not unfettered things that can just live openly in the wild so I think it's interesting to acknowledge that Sam who's deep in the bowels of one of the most important companies sees both its potential but it's danger enough to say that this is how we should think about it light nuclear weapons I think is a very important thing to acknowledge we had a trump Town Hall I hate to bring it up and go back into Trump commentary and all this but he's the lead candidate he thinks we can get out of debt we just got to drill a bunch of oil we'll get out of this problem we'll be able to rebalance the budget so trim off and then I want to be clear I don't think it's great that we have these enormous deaths and entitlement obligations but I also don't think that there's some magic number where the economy breaks and the reason is because we're Central to not just our economy but everybody else's economy We Are The Reserve currency of the world that's not changing anytime soon it's not even close and we are for better or worse and I think I don't like it but we are the world's policeman we are a bunch of things we are the world's Center of innovation we are the world's Center of these great leaps forward in humanity when we talk about all of these different things these aren't coming from random countries they're coming from the United States we can debate which company but we're never debating the country so chamak doesn't that ultimately lead to just inflation initially starts at the inflation of assets and asset prices but It ultimately leads to the inflation of goods and services which can the economy because then you know the middle class can't afford things and you have economic slowdown I mean that's the historical record of having these kind of inflationary moments yeah I mean inflation comes and goes but the position of the American U.S dollar hasn't changed again you have to remember like a lot of these foreign governments 187 or whatever the number is countries outside the United States rely on the US dollar they don't want to own their own currency and so dollars do get inflated but that increased purchasing power also actually drives the balance of power back to the United States because all of these other folks all of a sudden find the ability to import a little bit cheaper their economies get slightly better but the US dollar actually still does well so there's a complex set of interactions that are all relative so I think it's very hard to point to the U.S middle class and say oh this is why the U.S breaks I just don't see very many good examples in a modern globalist era and there are examples and I think Ray dalio has pointed these out when you look all the way in the back but to use the UK right in the 15 and 1600s of the East India Trading Company when we did not have a glow global economy or a global Reserve currency I don't think it's very useful there's things you can learn you know taxation I think we can learn about why taxation does kill Innovation you said that before I agree with that but I don't think there's much value in saying because it happened in these moments it's going to happen exactly the same way here and I think what people don't understand is we are in a unitary singular mono economy that is anchored by the US dollar right you're using more than half of the government's income based on the current tax rates to fund the interest payments on your debt that's not even to pay for social services that's not even to pay for the defense that's not even to pay for government services that's just more than half of the income here's how one would make money because it's pretty obvious what's going to happen we're going to 200.
we're not going to 50. so I just kind of compart how do you make money I think there's a lot of ways that you could make money would you go along the dollar in short gold no because those are like Antiquated ways of making money where you have to have these convoluted derivatives agreements with these Banks and I've done these before where you're levered up to billions of dollars of risk it proves nothing and I don't sleep well at night I think that there are simpler strategies that you can implement but I think Stan is basically betting that the US will break and that we will be forced in some way to bring debt to GDP closer to 50 then to 150 or 200.
and I would just bet the opposite and it's not because I want it to happen or that he's not intellectually or morally right also inflation down again we've kind of gotten used to this but this I thought this was a particularly interesting chart if you look at Food goods and energy all going in the right direction Services still very expensive any thoughts on the fed and inflation as we uh wrap up on sort of where we're at here is another 25 basis points core inflation is very sticky we've never really tested the ability for the US to borrow durationally Beyond 30 years and again we talked about what an error it was in judgment for the treasury not to issue 100 Year bonds but I think if there's any country in the world that can issue 100 Year bonds it's the United States of America and I do think that they'll be able to get durational assets that are that far out on the yield curve so I again am less concerned about the depth wall here because I think you'll be able to push maturities out you'll be able to refi a bunch of short-term obligations into the future and if you look at where the yield curve is 10 years at three and a half 340 something so the thought is that inflation goes down if you put it out to 100 years I would be very surprised if 100 Year rates if they price the bond weren't some were sub one percent so I do think it becomes effectively free money for the United States and I think it's just a practical thing they need to explore by the way corporates have explored these 50-year bonds and greater so I think it's just like it's a matter of mathematics as you guys have just Illustrated here that the US has to push out past 30 years so we'll have 50-year U.S bonds we'll have 100 Year us bonds the simple way to acknowledge that is just that we are going to reinflate the money supply over the long term because it's the only sustain sustainable way that politicians can get elected and re-elected and I think the best thing to do there is to own risk assets did you get any feedback the show obviously did really well a lot of people watched it I got a tremendous amount of feedback people thought he was a fascinating interesting character some people thought he was a conspiracy theorist they pointed out a bunch of different moments my biggest thing was I think he surprised a lot of people to the upside a lot of people emailed me saying they thought one specific thing with him and we tried to address it which is he's painted as this kind of like conspiracy theorist or anti-vaxx person by the mainstream media and overwhelmingly so much of the feedback was wow this guy is so totally different because you gave him a long format in order for him to really talk I thought he was really engaging and very interesting and very smart makes me think this is just like a complete disaster for America can we not find two other candidates chamoth what did you think coming out of I think that I'm more surprised by the fact that the big Republican Mega donors have taken a big step back away from DeSantis I thought that if the money train on the Republican side picked DeSantis that it would be very difficult for Trump to overcome it but he's managed to somehow fade that bullet too he's like Neo in the matrix it's like you have these guys shooting bullets at this guy and he just keeps somehow finding a way to date them but this week Schwartzman stepped back Ken Griffin basically has gone silent so there's a lot of guys that came close to him and I think DeSantis ages poorly you know he's best before you actually spend time with him and the more time people seem to spend and
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