저자: Victor · 외국인
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엔비디아는 지난 5년간 14배 상승한 고성장 반도체주로, 게이밍·데이터센터 성장과 견고한 재무(영업이익률 37.6%, 순현금 보유)를 근거로 장기 매수 대상이다. 개인 DCF 분석(할인율 8%, 5년 FCF 성장률 30~50%)에서 정상 시나리오 적정가는 주당 약 232.35달러로 주가가 적정~소폭 저평가라고 봤다. 주요 리스크는 AMD·인텔과의 경쟁, 글로벌 칩 부족, ARM 인수 승인 불확실성이다. 발언자는 주가가 적정가보다 크게 떨어지면 추가 매수하겠다고 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
hi everyone this victor here welcome to the intelligent investor channel and video stock was one of the best performing semiconductor stocks in the past five years it's also one of my favorite stocks for long-term investing in fact the stock increased as much as 1 359 in the past five years which means the stock was a 14 bagger in the past five years in comparison the s p 500 index increased 106 and was a two beggar during the same period in this video i'm going to talk about is nvidia stock still a buy and what is nvidia's first interesting value i will cover these topics in this video how nvidia earns its revenues nvidia's two long-term growth catalysts three major risks you should know about voice and readers fair insurance right per share and am i buying a media stock if you like this video smash the like button subscribe and turn on the notification button i will continue to make many excellent stock analysis and portfolio analysis videos every week that will help you become a great investor also if you like this channel and want to support it check out my patreon blog and become a vip patron you'll be able to follow all the stocks i'm buying for the long term also you'll be able to download the latest intrinsic value calculators for all the stocks i'm analyzing so you know when a stock is currently overwhelm you fairly value or undervalued the link is in the video description take a look let's start if you're a pc gamer like me you know that nvidia is the leading graphics processing unit gpu maker in the world nvidia is known for making the best high performance gpus for gamers 3d artists creative designers id professionals and researchers in addition to nvidia's high performance gpus for desktop pcs and gaming laptops nvidia has expanded to other products such as rtx graphics cards for workstations ai systems for data scientists and researchers upcoming arm-based nvidia grade cpu for ai training and high-performance computing workloads bluefield data processing units dpus for data centers a100 tensor core gpus for data centers and video drive system for autonomous driving cars geforce now cloud gaming and nvidia omni works which is a real-time simulation and collaboration platform for 3d production workloads nvidia has many other products and services but we will focus on the ones that drive the most revenue nvidia has five business segments gaming data center professional visualization automotive oem and other if you look at this revenue by business segments here you can see nvidia earns the most revenues from gaming and data center both business segments have a lot of growth potential i will talk about their growth catalyst later on and media currently has high revenue growth operating income growth and earnings per share growth rates he also has a high operating margin this is why the stock outperformed the sap function index by a large margin in the past five years for example according to the recent q2 earnings released here its total revenue increased 68 year-over-year operating income increased 275 year-over-year and diluted earnings per share increased 276 percent year over year operating margin was 37.6 in terms of business segments nvidia's gaming revenue grew 85 year-over-year data center revenue grew 35 year-over-year and professional visualization revenue grew 156 year over year this is the important part if you look at this here you can see and media has very consistent operating cash flow and free cash flow growth each year and media has high free cash flow because it's capital expenditure k packs is much smaller than its operating castle the biggest reason is that nweda is a fabulous semiconductor company and rydea does not have its manufacturing plans for chip making instead nvidia designs its chips and outsources its cheap production to tsmc and samsung foundry the two largest semiconductor foundries in the world and media also has a very healthy balance sheet for example it ended the quarter with 19.7 billion in gross cash 12 billion in debt and 7.7 billion in net cash this means nvidia can in theory pay off all its debt and still have 7.7 billion in net cash left when we're investing in stocks we have to be forward-looking and look at the business future economic prospects so let's talk about nvidia's two long-term growth catalysts i believe the first major growth catalyst for nvidia is the increasing demand for high performance gpus for consumers and professionals as you may already know there's an enormous demand for pc gaming esports competitive gaming game streaming and console gaming and media ceo johnson huang said the number of pc gamers in the world grew substantially 20 last year because of the pandemic that started in 2020 more people are playing video games buying gaming pcs that need high-end cpus and gpus and playing online games with friends as of now the gpu market is a duopoly there are only two companies that make high performance gpus for gamers and professionals there are nvidia and amd intel is planning to release its discrete arc gpu in q1 2022 to compete with nvidia and amd but rumors suggest that it will be comparable to nvidia and amd's mid-end gpus not their high-end gpus yet as of now most pc gamers either buy their discrete gpus from nvidia or amd depending on their budgets if you look at the steam hardware survey here in july 2021 you can see most gamers use nvidia geforce graphics cards to play their pc games this means amd graphics cards market share is much smaller compared with nvidia's graphics cards in july 2021.
according to this article here nvidia's discrete gpu market was 83 percent and amd's discrete gp market share was 17 in q2 2021. so this matched the steam hardware survey i just showed you earlier what is interesting is that nvidia's discrete gpu had get more market shares from q2 2020 to q2 2021 there are several reasons one main reason is that nvidia's top-end gpus tend to have higher performance better tech and more gaming features than amd gpus for example at the time of making this video nvidia's gpu's ray tracer and deep learning super sampling dlss tech are better than amd gpu's ray tracing and fidelity fx super resolution tech if money is not an issue most scammers will buy top end gps from nvidia according to this article here you can see many top-end gpus are nvidia's rtx graphics cards right now gaming laptops are becoming very popular if you look at this best gaming laptops article here you can see most of these gaming laptops use nvidia geforce rtx gpus and video management set in the recent q2 earnings call ampere has been our fastest ramping gaming gpu archetype on steam and the combination of touring and ampere rtx gpus have only upgraded about 20 percent of our installed base eighty percent have yet to upgrade to rtx ampere rtx is nvidia's current gpu architect that's raytracing and that uses aei and deep learning to improve graphics and frame rates in gaming in my opinion mp rtx with ray tracer and deep learning super sampling dlss tech are one of nvidia's biggest competitive advantage nvidia management also said and the audience for global esports will soon approach 0.5 billion people while the number of those who live stream games is expected to reach over 700 million the number of pc gamers on steam is up almost 20 over the past year so we're seeing strong demand in pcs in laptops in workstations and cloud and so rtx is really doing great work our challenge there is that demand is with so much growth in supply and then as closely will do supply constraints crypto mining is still very popular even if it's not as profitable as before crypto mining actually increases the demand for nvidia gpus because most crypto mining requires high performance gpus that have higher hash rates as of now workstation rtx gpus with real-time rate chase and are becoming very popular one reason is that more professionals are working from home this is why nvidia's professional visualization rapidly increased 156 percent year over year in the recent q2 quarter i believe the second major growth catalyst is the increasing demand for data center gpus as far as i know most data centers especially the largest cloud providers need gpus to accelerate workloads such as data analytics cloud computing cloud gaming ai training and research machine learning deep learning high performance computing edge computing networking and virtualization if you look at this server system list here from nvidia you can see all these servers use nvidia gpus in addition to intel and amd server processors according to this cloud services provider list here you can see the largest cloud providers use nvidia's data center's gpus and services these largest cloud providers include amazon aws google cloud microsoft azure and ibm cloud also this partner service list from nvidia shows the major vendors using nvidia data center gpus to build their servers this is from nvidia's q2 earnings call it shows the enormous demand for a media gpus used in data centers especially in ai applications nvidia's management said let me turn to the outlook for the third quarter of fiscal 202.
we expect another strong quarter with sequential growth driven logic by accelerating demand in data center in addition we expect sequential growth in each of our three other market platforms gaming demand is continued to exist supply as we expect channel inventories to remain below target levels as we exit q3 moving to data center rally of 2.4 billion grew 16 percent sequentially and 35 from the year ago quarter the year ago quarter which was our first quarter to include long last growth was driven by both hyperscale customers and vertical industries each of which has record revenues our flagship a100 continued to ram across hybrid scale and cloud computing customers with microsoft azure announcing general availability in june following aws and google cloud platforms general availability in private quarters customers are also turned to a media gpus to take ai to production and shifting from cpus to gpus driven by the stringent performance latency and cost requirements of the point and scaling deep learning ai workloads all this suggests that there is a huge demand for a media data center gpus that specialize in aei and high performance computing let's talk about the risk i believe the first major risk is obviously increasing competition with amd and intel in the discrete gpu market it's currently a duopoly between nvidia and amd nvidia is the market leader in gpu with a market share of 83 percent compared with md 17 in q2 this year intel has been of the discrete gpu market for many years now intel is planning to release its discrete arc gpu in q1 2022 to compete with nvidia and amd in my opinion i believe it will be warehouse for intel's upcoming arc gpu to compete with nvidia and amd because intel's art gpu is expected to be a mid-range gpu comparable to nvidia's current rtx 3070 and amd's rx 6700 xt gpus in comparison both nvidia and amd will be releasing their next gen gpus later next year amd is nvidia's biggest competitor in the discrete gpu market for consumers professionals and data center customers amd's upcoming nesgen rd and a3 gpus are rumored to be more power efficient than nvidia's national gpus that will release later next year if this is true amd's next-gen gpus may be able to take more market shares from nvidia's natural gpus of course no one will know until both nvidia and amd release their next gen gpus later next year also we need to consider the current global chip shortage the demand for high performance gpus is currently much higher than the supply if intel has enough arc gpu supply next year it can take small market shares from nvidia and amd in the discrete gpu market i believe the second major risk is the current global chip shortage that is affecting all companies especially the fabulous semi-conductor companies such as nvidia i mentioned this earlier nvidia outsources cheap production to dsmc and samsung nvidia's management said the company is supply constraint in scanning business in both desktop and notebook nvidia's management also set the demand for gaming's gpus far exceeding the supply if the global chip shortage continues this means nvidia's revenue growth will be impacted and media will likely raise its gpu prices i believe the third major risk is nvidia's arm acquisition nvidia is seeking approval from the european union to acquire arm arm is the most popular chip occupy used in almost all mobile computing devices such as iphones android phones and tablets now arm is expanded to servers to compete with intel's x86 based processors nvidia according arm is already priced in nvidia stock price if antitrust regulators from uk europe and china do not approve of nvidia acquiring arm i believe nvidia's stock price will have a small correction now let's talk about nvidia's very interest value first i define nvidia's intrinsic value as its future castles discounted to the present day and video generates very consistent free cash flow each quarter so we're going to use nvidia's free castle growth to estimate its fair interest value these are the key assumptions i used to calculate nvidia's 4 inches per share the discount rate is 8 this is the cost of equity calculated by finbox.com i believe nvidia's free customer will go a compound and growth rate char between 30 and 50 over the next five years to calculate the terminal value i have used these two models the perpetual growth model and the except multiple model at the end of year fine then i take the average of both models to calculate the terminal value the shares outstanding are from morningstar let's go over these three case scenarios the worst case the normal case and the best case scenarios under the worst case scenario we're using a compound annual growth rate of 30 if we project nvidia's free cash flow to the next five years and discount the free cash flow to the present day nvidia's interest rate should be 407.54 billion for the whole company and if we divide this by the shares outstanding that nvidia's interest rate should be around 163 dollars per share under the normal case scenario we're using a compound annual growth rate of 40 if we approach it nvidia's free cuts fall to the next five years and discount the free cash flow to the present day and videos interesting while you should be 580.87 billion for the whole company and if we divide this by the shares outstanding the nvidia's interest rate should be around 232.35 per share under the best case scenario we're using a compound and will go through 50 if we project nvidia's free castle to the next five years and discount the frequency to the present day nvidia's interest rate should be 809.93 billion for the whole company and if we divide this by the shares outstanding then nvidia's intrinsic value should be around 323.97 per share personally under the normal case scenario i believe nvidia's current fair interest rate value is around 580.87 billion for the whole company or 232.35 per share this means i believe nvidia stock is either fairly valued or slightly undervalued at the time making this video so will i be buying more and media shares yes i'll be buying more nvidia shares because i like nvidia's business i like its market leadership in the gp business in both the consumer and data center markets as well as its leadership in ai i already have nvidia shares in my portfolio but i will continue to buy more nvidia shares if the stock drops well below its franchise value under the normal case scenario i mentioned earlier i believe nvidia's current fair interest value is around 580.87 billion for the whole company or 232.35 per share if nvidia's free cash flow goes a char 40 over the next five years now all these estimates are only my opinions and analysis based on my research they are not financial wise make sure you always do your research and do your extra due diligence before investing in anything if you like this video smash the like button subscribe and turn on the notification button i will continue to make many excellent stock analysis and portfolio analysis videos every week that will help you become a great investor also if you like this channel and want to support it check out my patreon blog and become a vip patron you'll be able to follow all the stocks i'm buying for the long term also you'll be able to download the latest intrinsic value calculators for all the stocks i'm analyzing so you know when the stock is currently over while you're fairly wild or underwired thank you for watching this video this video from the intelligent mr channel and i will see you in the next video
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