저자: TruthInvestor · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 역사상 가장 감정적인 버블 중 하나이며 17,000달러는 정당화되지 않는다. 비트코인 버블의 성격: 인터넷 확산, 젊은 투자자 비중, 개인투자자 비중, 정부·중앙은행 통화 불신이 감정적 과열을 키웠다. 다만 닷컴·주택·채권 버블에 비하면 규모는 작을 수 있다. 가치 정당화 4가지 논리 검토: 거래 수단, 송금, 소액결제, 디지털 금(인플레이션·지정학 헤지) 중 현재 가치 근거는 거의 없다고 평가. 멤풀 수요 증가 주장은 0까지 떨어지는 모습 등으로 반박. 거래 수단: 네트워크 포화에도 실사용 확대가 없고, 스팀의 결제 중단과 수수료 상승을 근거로 현재 가치는 감소했다고 봄. 라이트닝 네트워크 등 미래 개선은 인정하나 UI 문제로 채택까지 멀다고 봄. 현재 거래 목적 가치는 50억~100억 달러 수준이면 충분하며 시가총액 2,900억 달러와 괴리가 큼. 송금: 대규모 송금은 실수 위험 때문에 전통 시스템을 쓸 것이라 봄. 소액결제: 현재 수수료·속도 문제로 불가능, 전적으로 미래 가치. 디지털 금: 베네수엘라·아르헨티나 등에서는 의미 있으나 거래량 대부분은 미국·일본에서 나오며, 두 나라는 인플레이션이 낮거나 디플레이션 상황이라 헤지 논리가 성립하지 않음. 금 가격 하락은 비트코인과 무관하게 경기 낙관·세금 감면 때문이라 봄. 가격 동력: 펀더멘털과 무관한 모멘텀·행동재무학, 더 큰 바보 이론(greater fool). 기술적 지표상 모든 기간에서 과매수. 지지·저항, 1,000달러 단위 심리적 가격대 활용 언급. 전망 및 조언: 1개월 내 3만 달러 가능성을 열어두며, 동시에 3,000달러까지 급락할 수 있다고 경고. 단기 매매는 달러 코스트 평균(분할매수)과 손절 관리 권고, 1~5~10년 장기 보유는 보류 권고. 현재 가격은 추측의 영역이라 함.
다듬은 글
today we're gonna talk about one of the most euphoric markets I would argue at least in all of history it may not be the largest bubble the dot-com bubble is larger the housing bubble was larger the bond market bubble is larger and the jury is still out as to whether or not stocks are in a bubble but if they are then that's clearly a much larger bubble than Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies however in terms of raw emotion I would say Bitcoin has eclipsed t' almost every other market bubble throughout history and that is a function of the internet increasing hype is a function of the younger demographics of Bitcoin investors it is a function of the percentage of retail investors as a total of all the investors in Bitcoin it is a function of decades of pent up aggression against governments and national banks that have devalued currencies such that it is essentially a waste to store certain national currencies as they experience hyperinflation one of the best stories I ever read was or one of the best anecdotes what I should say was in a book called digital gold which details the history of Bitcoin I don't remember exactly who it was and I don't remember the exact country I believe it was Argentina but basically he said that his mother came home from getting a paycheck and they had to rush to the grocery store to basically purchase as many things as they could and run through the aisles before the goods actually got priced upward because there was actually somebody that walked through those aisles increasing the prices and that is insane in my opinion I can't even imagine living in an in scenario that's like that right that's the effect of hyperinflation right if you look at Venezuela they no longer look at the actual currency itself they have to actually weigh it to determine the value so hyper inflation really pent up feelings associated with that there's also a number of other factors that are leading to increased emotion in this particular market there's also the fact that investors in traditional markets are chasing performance at the moment due to the result of negative interest rates or zero interest rates very low interest rates and the fact that traditional assets are sort of we're in a weird environment at the moment where we've never seen interest rates deflated this long so there's all of these perfect market conditions and all of these perfect conditions in general that have led in my opinion again to one of the most euphoric markets in all of history however I will still say that this is a complete bubble and despite all of the arguments that you can say in the favor of Bitcoin it is not worth $17,000 per now let me be clear about this this does not mean that you can't make a ton of money off a Bitcoin I would not be surprised if Bitcoin reaches $30,000 in the next month wouldn't even surprise me not even in the slightest it's not worth $17,000 today it's not even worth 10,000 we're gonna talk about why I feel that way in this video now in my opinion there's four main ways in which you can justify the price of Bitcoin the first way is its use as a transaction medium the second way is it used for remittances the third way is through it's used for micro transactions and the fourth way is the digital gold argument the way to hedge against hyperinflation and sort of hedge against geopolitical instability and government control those are the four main arguments for the value of Bitcoin the transaction medium argument has become worse as bitcoins price has accelerated and I've actually talked about this in a previous video where the network is operating at capacity which has resulted in the transactions flatlining and despite the fact that we actually pass segments we still don't really see that much adoption of segments which means that the scalability of Bitcoin has not improved all that much but more importantly a lot of people mention that the network is operating at capacity and that clearly means that the demand for Bitcoin transactions has increased however if that were true the mempool size the base level of the mempool size not the spike levels would actually increase over time but there are still moments where we see the mempool size for Bitcoin actually go down to zero which tells me that essentially the main reason why we see mempool spikes is either the result of Bitcoin spiking in price which means that more people are sending Bitcoin between exchanges or it's the result of attacks on the Bitcoin network in other words people that are spamming the mempool in order to slow down the network which I would not put it past Roger ver to do so I would argue that the network as a whole is actually seeing the transaction medium argument decrease in value at least in present utility of course the future utility might be increasing as a result of the Lightning Network however I watch that demo and while it is awesome that we are seeing the speed increase as well as the transaction fees decrease I still believe that the UI problem makes it so that Bitcoin is still a long long way from real adoption as a transaction medium it's not idiot-proof and until it's idiot-proof nobody's gonna want to mess around with sending money if they don't fully understand what the hell it is that they're doing and it might be very simple for many of us that are involved in the field but I'm telling you we have to make it idiot proof for more people to start using it plain and simple ok and we've actually seen Steam recently stopped accepting Bitcoin as a result of the volatility as a result of the delays in the transaction confirmations and so on so forth right and as well as of course the transaction fees increasing so I would argue that the value as a transaction medium has actually decreased when we look at the present value and I don't think people are discounting the future value at all like you should if you were actually modeling it out which again you really don't want to because it the inputs for the model would change far too much in a short span of time however if you just mentally think about it the future for Bitcoin really hasn't changed in the last month there really hasn't been anything that's done in the last month that suddenly has changed my perception of Bitcoin the Lightning Network is still on course very cool and all of the other means in which we can improve Bitcoin as a transaction medium are on the way and nothing has changed except another month has passed by so maybe you realize the present value of that month otherwise nothing really has changed okay and I would argue that the present utility value in order to support the transactions that currently exist on the Bitcoin network the total market cap of Bitcoin would only need to be roughly five to ten billion dollars and the ten billion dollar estimate is very very optimistic okay you could support all of the transactions on the network for the purposes of commerce goods and services that is not exchanging between different exchanges so that you can buy all coins or whatever else I guarantee you you could support the entire network with about a market cap of about ten billion dollars and that's including the fact that the entire market cap is not going to be floating in other words you could support it with literally 40 percent of that ten billion dollars okay you could probably support it with forty percent of five billion dollars in total here the entire network value that's required to support it as a transaction medium is very very small relative to the total size of Bitcoin okay if you look at this here you can see that Bitcoin is currently at 290 billion dollars worth of market valuation so that works out to be I don't know maybe like five hundred dollars worth of value would be the maximum I would say for the present utility value that's pretty sad from from its use as a transaction medium all right so very little value coming from that from a fundamental basis the all of it might be coming from the future value there's no way to prove that but I can tell you that the future value still doesn't look that great to me while the UI is not in place so that it's idiot-proof so that's the first thing the second way in which you could justify this price is through bitcoins use as remittances or the ability to send money however I think the majority of people that could send substantial amounts of money they're not going to use Bitcoin you know you think about Bitcoin as a way to send money and it just really might be convenient in a lot of ways it's also not convenient in a lot of ways as well again all harping back to that UI which I will be talking about in a future article slash video in fact this entire basically outline for this video is coming from the ideas for a future article which I will flush out a little bit more but anyway the point is the value coming from remittances I don't know exactly how much is coming from that argument however I will tell you that I think the majority of people that actually want to send substantial amounts of money unless they're doing it for shady purposes are probably gonna stick with traditional systems because there's ways to assure you don't screw it up like Bitcoin you know you send it to the wrong address you're done for you know at least these sorts of things are the types of arguments I really just want to be very clear about when it comes to remittances value comes from that certainly is it anywhere close to the value that's being assigned to Bitcoin at the moment I would argue absolutely not that brings us to the third argument and it's not even an argument it's just really you can't get any present utility value from this it's all future utility value and that is bitcoins use as or for micro transactions clearly you can't use Bitcoin at the moment for micro transactions the fees are too high and the speed of the network is far too slow however we know that the Lightning network might fix that or it might at least alleviate that a little bit and then maybe once we build layer three that might make it get us to the point where we can actually use Bitcoin for micro transactions again like in the past again I'm not totally sure but all of that value would come from the future and if that's the case then I would argue again that not a ton of value really can come from that use case which means that the majority of what you could argue for a justifying price all comes from the digital gold argument and unfortunately I don't think that argument holds a lot of weight on the flip side I can't actually prove that that's true but what I can try to say is that from a qualitative point of view it really doesn't make all that much sense to me that Bitcoin it it does make sense to me in some ways that Bitcoin is used as a digital gold argument especially for people that live in Venezuela Argentina Zimbabwe so on so forth certainly it makes sense in some of those countries but do you really think that much value comes from there those places don't have a ton of money in the first place the majority of the volume is coming from the US and Japan and that's certainly not a case in those two countries if anything at the moment inflation is very very low okay we're not dealing with hyperinflation in fact we're dealing with the opposite in Japan deflation and in the u.s.
we are dealing with lower than anticipated inflation for quite some time although it's finally starting to pick up the pace a little bit so when it comes to using Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation that argument goes out the window what about against geopolitical instability well that's certainly a possibility but the reason that the price of gold is going down has absolutely nothing to do with Bitcoin in the first place has to do with the economy doing well has to do with us tax cuts as people become more optimistic about the economy if you look at gold versus Bitcoin you don't really see gold tanking as Bitcoin goes up with the exception of the past two weeks which again comes from optimism over the economy and tax cuts rather than Bitcoin so I really want to draw this back to where is all of this value coming from and the simple answer is people are getting greedy people are investing because they want to make money quickly that's exactly what I'm doing okay so if you're buying Bitcoin at the moment I don't want you to fool yourself into thinking that you're investing because you're not okay everyone's gambling at the moment because bitcoins price just keeps going up and so buying Bitcoin is a self-fulfilling prophecy it's almost a circle it's not a catch-22 but it is circular logic okay bitcoin is going up because bitcoins price is going up it's as simple as that it's the very definition of momentum in fact if you look at Bitcoin we already talked about the fundamentals of Bitcoin if you look at Bitcoin from a technical standpoint you're gonna see that it's overbought on any technical indicator if you're looking at the moving average Convergence divergence if you're looking at the relative strength thing if you're looking at Bollinger Bands if you're looking at almost I would argue anything over any time period that's not like the one-minute okay if you look at the longer time periods you're gonna see bitcoins overbought on every single technical indicator and this is part of why I don't bother using technical analysis I use support and resistance lines because there is certainly psychological things that are associated with those I also use $1,000 price levels psychological price areas this is all behavioral finance and you could argue maybe Elliott Wave analysis or Fibonacci levels could argue maybe that those things could justify some of this in the fractal market theory and all of that other information that's out there talking about how you analyze markets and price action but I guarantee you that's not what's driving this market it's all behavioral finance and it's coming from people that are greedy that want to make money quickly it's an excellent opportunity at the moment it's all greater fool investing you're all trying to invest or buy in the hopes of being able to sell it to somebody else that buys it at an even higher price plain and simple bitcoin is not worth $17,000 per at this current point in time however I wouldn't say sell all your Bitcoin I think that this is a great time to take advantage of momentum you can certainly what I would if you're gonna try to take advantage of this thing dollar cost average it and keep a tight stop or do a mental stop do something where you keep a close eye on Bitcoin such that you can't actually lose money as sad as it makes me to say this it's almost like a Ponzi scheme as soon as you get to the point where you're playing with just profits you've won right you've strayed out one there's no way for you to lose money at that point and that's exactly how a lot of people see Bitcoin at the moment and it makes perfect sense people will continue investing in Bitcoin I will not be surprised to see thirty thousand dollars in the next month if you're trying to invest in Bitcoin in other words hold it for like one five ten years I would hold off I don't think it's worth it at this point okay I could keep going up for all I know at this point it's so disconnected to its fundamentals it's not even crazy I don't think there's a such thing as investing in Bitcoin anymore it's all just speculation and maybe the odds are in your favor that it goes up but again the fundamentals are so disconnected with the actual price at this point that it's anybody's guess as to what bitcoins gonna do next Bitcoin could be thirty thousand dollars next month it could just as easily be three thousand be prepared for that I'm serious don't think that it can't go down to three thousand dollars in a month it very easily could that's all I'm gonna say at this point I know this was a controversial video I don't care at this point this if there was ever something I was waiting for to validate my opinion that bitcoin is a bubble this did it this this absolutely validated it and some people will say this is perfect evidence it's not a bubble then you probably should think twice I would say that's all I'm gonna say anyway I hope you guys enjoyed the video if you would like to support me there are some referral links in the description if you want to buy Bitcoin there's a coin base referral link if you're interested in some other Bitcoin goodies I have some Amazon affiliate links in the description otherwise leave a like comment and subscribe and I will get back to you as soon as possible be careful
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