저자: SuperNomal · 한국인
요약 보기
개인 투자자가 2022년 하락장에서 TQQQ·SOXL 등 3배 레버리지 ETF를 물타기했으나 손실이 커졌다고 회고. 현재 TQ 수익권 진입 등 일부 회복했다고 밝힘. 3배 레버리지는 매우 위험하며 장기 보유는 권하지 않고, 일정 수익 시 실현·추가 매수 중단, 큰 폭 하락 시 기회로 봐야 한다는 입장. 개별 종목 추천은 하지 않는다고 명시.
다듬은 글
I know it is risky, but since I am not a lump-sum investor, I have cited the example that TQ would not have gone bankrupt if one had consistently practiced dollar-cost averaging, assuming it had hit the dot-com bubble. So, I am going to show you what happens to the leveraged ETFs of this "crashed generation" after a year.
Hello, this is Super Normal. Today, I will show you the situation of TQ Soksul Bulju— one of the riskiest investments I am currently making—a 3x leveraged ETF that is currently at 6%, comparing it to one year ago. I will also discuss my thoughts, methods, and future plans regarding investing in 3x leveraged ETFs like TQ Soksul.
Before we begin, I want to mention this out of caution—something I always say whenever discussing this topic—but I absolutely do not recommend buying 3x leveraged ETFs. I do not recommend any stocks, not just 3x leveraged ones. It is not that I choose not to; it is that I cannot. If you absolutely insist on buying one, I tell you to do so only if you are confident you can handle an MDD of -99%.
If anyone watching this video is currently stuck with TQ Soksul or similar stocks, I hope this helps you at least a little. A year ago, I made and uploaded a video like this, revealing the quantity and the situation of being completely wiped out. It was a video where I showed my investment situation, explaining that I started investing in US stocks in November 2021 and talking about my initial purchase price.
It stated that the purchase price for Soksseure was $61, but I was mistaken; I bought it for over $70, so I purchased it near the peak. I believed it would go back up, but because the market was falling so sharply at the time, I was scared and couldn't go all-in. I mentioned that although it wasn't a fixed amount, I would continue averaging down until the price stabilized.
I knew it was risky, but since I wasn't a lump-sum investor, I used the example of TQ, stating that if one had consistently bought in installments under the assumption that it had hit the dot-com bubble, it wouldn't have gone bankrupt. So, let me show you what happened to the leveraged ETFs of this "crashed generation" after a year.
If you look, from 6% last September to Soksseure, I held 50 shares, 25 shares, 27 shares, totaling 488 trillion. Ideally, I wanted to buy as much as possible to accumulate, but I did n't have as much money to invest as I'd like; however, I tried my best to accumulate as much as I could. Also, since I was obsessed with semiconductors and Soksseure was my main investment, a lot of it, even within this group...
I bought based on my position weight. However, despite averaging down, my returns were worse on the last day of 2022. Although the quantity increased, the overall losses grew significantly. In the case of "Bulju," the quantity decreased; at that time, a stock split occurred, so I bought 3 more shares from 27 trillion to make 30, and the situation is now 3 shares.
Another surprising fact is that the returns in November were much worse than at that time. In the case of "Soseol," the losses exceeded 70%. I received a lot of concern from pessimists. Anyway, I had absolutely no intention of cutting my losses and believed I couldn't just leave it alone, so I steadily increased my quantity as much as possible.
It would have been better to buy more, but as I mentioned, I only had one reserve, and I absolutely had to buy at least 5 shares of SCHD. Since all other stocks were also in the red, I couldn't just blindly buy these. That is how I have gotten to where I am now. I recorded this around 11 PM to make a video, but looking at the market situation today, the price might have dropped further by the time I wake up and the video is uploaded.
However, based on the screenshot I took, the current quantity is 6%. My holdings increased from 75 shares of TQ to 80, and from Buljuyeolju to Sokbitri to 671. TQ and Bulju entered the profit zone. Sokseol was also in the profit zone, but due to high volatility, it has fallen back into the red. As you can see, the overall account return dropped by more than 40%—far exceeding -36%—resulting in a loss of over 20 million won; however, the situation has improved significantly now.
Experiencing these negative situations firsthand, which I didn't necessarily need to go through, changed my thoughts and plans regarding 3x leverage investing. Initially, I intended to mindlessly accumulate 3x leverage ETFs, simply assuming they would trend upwards. I also happily imagined, watching other YouTube videos, that they would grow more than tenfold in 10 years.
Everyone has a plan, you know, until they get beaten up. I learned the pros and cons by taking a solid hit and established my own plan. First of all, 3x leverage is reallydangerous. Seriously dangerous. Pessimists do n't say it leads to failure for no reason. There is a reason. And holding it for the long term is...
I don't think that is the right answer. It is nice when it trends beautifully upwards; it’s good. But if it has trended upwards for over 10 years and increased tenfold or twentyfold, and you think, "Now I should sell," only for a historic crash to hit right then and drop by over 90%, then your left-hand trading will truly be ruined.
That is why I believe it is necessary to realize profits at a reasonable level. However, no one knows what that reasonable level is. I personally think it will surpass the previous high, but I cannot guarantee whether or not it will hold out when a rally comes after that. That is why I think selling well at the right time is extremely important.
Also, I have stopped mindless dollar-cost averaging; while I increase my quantity by averaging down when I am in the red, once it turns positive, that is it. I won't buy any more, and I intend to consider that limit as the absolute limit of my earnings. Finally, if I may dare to offer advice to those considering starting 3x leverage investing, I would say it is best not to do it because it is risky.
You must be prepared to endure a maximum loss rate of minus 99.9% on the maximum drawdown (MDD). Also, while there is no right answer, let go of greed, and it is best not to invest large sums in lump-sum, drop-by-drop strategies. If it only goes up, a lump-sum "all-in" investment might be good, but starting with too much money...
If you enter the market and it crashes, it might not be noticeable even if you average down, so I think you should be careful. If you started investing with dollar-cost averaging and the price goes into the red, it is advisable to average down. Unless you are planning to cut your losses, you just need to hold on steadily.
I have shown you the "baptism" I experienced firsthand. Next, pessimists say that if the underlying index drops by more than -33%, it is a flop, but you should consider that such a thing is extremely rare. Taking TQ as an example, there is no possibility that the Nasdaq will fall by -33%, and if it really crashes, a circuit breaker will be triggered before it drops that far.
You should assume there is no chance it will disappear in a single day. I think it would only disappear if the world ended. Also, this is a cautious topic, but if a situation arises someday where it drops by more than -90% from the peak, I consider that an opportunity. Back in November 2022, it dropped to $6, which was over -90% from the peak, and it was a tremendous opportunity.
I feel quite regretful that I didn't use much of it back then. These are the things I have learned while investing in 3x leverage ETFs, even though it hasn't been that long. I also stepped into this because I wanted to get rich quickly, but... I hope this ends with a happy ending. It’s not really something to brag about, but I hope it helps many of you.
In particular, for those of you stuck at the peak and unable to move, unless you plan to cut your losses, I hope you muster a little courage and get through this well. That’s all for today’s story. Thank you for watching, and I hope to see you again healthy and happy.
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