저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
요약 보기
이 영상은 버핏의 투자 철학을 설명하는 강연 녹취다. 결론: 투자는 '지금 손에 쥔 것'과 '덤불 속 미래 가치'를 금리와 기간에 비추어 비교하는 가치 판단이다. 투자의 기본 방정식: 이솝 우화의 '손안의 새 한 마리가 덤불 속 새 두 마리보다 낫다'를 투자 공식으로 해석. 다만 우화는 받는 시점과 금리를 빠뜨렸다고 지적. 금리와 시점의 중요성: 금리 5%에서 5년 후 새 두 마리는 현재 가치상 유리하지만, 금리가 20%면 손안의 새를 굴리는 편이 낫다. 성장은 흔히 덤불 속 새가 많다는 뜻이지만, 언제 얻는지와 금리·다른 대안과 비교해야 한다. 기업 가치 계산 예시: 기업 가치 5,000억 달러, 요구수익률 10%면 매년 550억 달러를 영구히 지급할 수 있어야 한다. 1년 지연되면 더 큰 금액, 세전 약 800억 달러 이익이 필요하다는 계산. 현실 기업 중 이 수준 이익을 내는 곳은 드물어 큰 수익성 변화가 필요하다. 저평가 매수 사례: 버핏은 4배 이익 수준의 훌륭한 기업 매수 가능성을 언급했고, 멍거가 National RV(캘리포니아, 레크리에이션 차량 판매)를 언급하며 농담 섞인 대화가 이어짐. 멍거의 관점: 모든 지능적 투자는 가치 투자이며, 지불한 가격보다 더 많은 가치를 얻는 것이 핵심. 필터로 투자 유니버스를 걸러 저평가 종목을 찾고, 가치에 근접하면 매도 후 다음 종목을 찾는 능동적 투자가 필요하다. 소수의 위대한 기업을 찾아 오래 보유하는 방식도 언급. 출연 및 성격: 과거 강연 발췌로 특정 종목·자산에 대한 현재 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
actually it's it's very simple it um the first investment primer when would you guess it was written the first investment primer that I know of and it was pretty good advice was delivered in about 600 BC by ESOP and ESOP you'll remember said a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush incident ESOP did not know it was 600 BC he was smart but he wasn't that smart that um now ASAP and thing but he didn't finish it because there's a couple of other questions that go along with that but it is an investment equation a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush he forgot to say exactly when you were going to get the two in the from the bush and he forgot to say what interest rates were that you had to measure this against but if he'd given those two factors he would have defined investment for the next 2600 years because a bird in the hand is you know you will trade a bird in the hand which is investing you lay out cash today and then the question is as an investment decision you have to you have to evaluate how many birds are in the bush you may think there are two birds in the bush or three birds in the bush and you have to decide when they're going to come out and when you're going to acquire them now if interest rates are five percent and you're going to get two birds from the bush in five years we'll say versus one now uh two birds in the bush are much better than a bird in the hand now so you want to you want to trade your bird in the hand and say I'll take two birds in the bush because if you're going to get them in five years that's roughly 14 compounded annually and interest rates are only five percent but if interest rates for 20 percent you would decline to take two birds in the bush five years from now you would say that's not good enough because at twenty percent if I just keep this bird in my hand and compound it I'll have more birds than two birds in the bush in five years now what's all that got to do with growth well usually growth people associate with a lot more birds in the bush but you still have to decide when you're going to get them and you have to measure that against interest rates and you have to measure it against other bushes and other you know other equations and that's all that's all investing is it's a value decision based on you know what it is worth how many birds are in that bush when you're going to get them and what interest rates are now if you pay 500 billion dollars and when when we buy a stock we always think in terms of buying the whole Enterprise because it enables us to to think as businessmen rather than as stock speculators so let's just take an A company that has marvelous prospects is paying you nothing now and you buy it at an evaluation of 500 billion now if you feel that 10 is the appropriate rate of return and you can pick your figure that means that if it pays you nothing this year but starts paying next year it has to be able to pay you 55 billion in perpetuity each year but if it's not going to pay until the third year then it has to pay you 60.5 billion in perpetuity in perpetuity to justify the present price every year that you wait to take a bird out of the Bush means that you have to take out more birds it's that simple and I I questioned in my mind whether sometimes whether people who pay 500 billion dollars implicitly for a business by buying 10 shares of stock at some price I really thinking of the mathematical the mathematics implicit in what they are doing to deliver let's just assume it's there's only going to be a one-year delay before a business starts paying out to you and you want to get a 10 return and you pay 500 billion that means 55 billion of cash that they have to be able to disgorgeous to you year after year after year to do that they have to make perhaps 80 billion dollars or close to a pre-tax now you might look around at the universe of businesses in this world and see how many are earning 80 billion pre-tax or 70 or 60 or 50 or 40 or 30 and you won't find any so it requires a rather extraordinary change in profitability to give you enough birds out of that particular bush to make it worthwhile to give up the one that you have in your hand second part of your question about whether we'd be willing to buy a wonderful business at four times earnings I think I could get even Charlie interested in that some but let's hear it from Charlie I'd like to know what that is he was hoping you would ask that the fellow that's got all his net worth in this stock and who has a captive audience tell us what it is you got to tell us we're begging you you want the name of the company we want the name of the company we're dying to get the name where do I get my pencil it's called National RV and it's based in California and they sell recreational vehicles okay well you've got a a crowd of people with who have birds in the hand and we will see what they do in terms of National RV Charlie do you have anything further on growth and value Etc watch him carefully folks well I agree that all intelligent investing is value investing you you have to acquire more than you really pay for and that's a value of judgment but you can look for more than you're paying for in a lot of different ways you can use filters to sift the investment universe and if you stick with stocks that can't possibly be wonderful to just put away in your safe deposit box for 40 years but are underpriced then you have to keep moving around all the time as they get closer to what you think the real value is you have to sell them and then find others and so it's a it's an active kind of investing the investing where you find a few great companies and just sit on your ass because you've correctly predicted the future that is what it's very nice to be good at the movie was G-rated even though is that it Charlie
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