저자: 미상 · 외국인
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2019년 영상으로, 비트코인 채굴 풀이 중국 쪽 4대 풀에 60~80% 집중된 재중앙화 문제를 경고하는 내용이다. 핵심 주장: 비트코인은 신뢰할 수 있는 중앙 기관 없이 작동하도록 설계되었으나, 채굴 권력이 소수에 집중되면서 탈중앙성이 훼손되고 있다. 근거: 상위 4개 채굴 풀이 채굴력의 60~80%를 장악, 2014년 한 풀이 일시적으로 50% 이상 점유한 사례(51% 공격 가능성) 언급. 구조적 원인: 작업증명(PoW) 방식에서 채굴 난이도가 주기적으로 조정되어 신규 진입 비용이 커지고, 소형 채굴자는 풀에 합류할 수밖에 없어 의사결정 권한이 풀 운영자에게 넘어간다. 리스크: 중국 정부가 채굴 풀을 통제하면 네트워크를 중단하거나 이중지불을 통해 화폐 가치를 훼손할 수 있다. 다만 실제 이중지불은 자기 파괴적이고 거래가 공개 장부에 남아 추적 가능하다는 반론도 제시. 대안: 개별 채굴자에게 권한을 돌려주는 규칙 변경 제안이 있으나, 다수 채굴자와 풀의 동의가 필요해 실현이 어렵다. 결론: 채굴력 집중은 비트코인의 최대 위협이며, 이를 해결하지 못하면 주류화와 탈중앙 가치 실현이 어렵다는 경고. 가격 예측: 영상에서 향후 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
on October 31st 2008 Satoshi Nakamoto posted a white paper for a peer-to-peer electronic cash system to a cryptography mailing list this was the first mention of paid coin that a decade later would become a two hundred billion dollar movement to this day it's still not sure who's Satoshi Nakamoto is whether it's a single person or multiple people or things but he doesn't matter what matters more is this this chart shows how the top four mining pools all of which are based in China control between 60 to 80 percent of bitcoins mining power this is very dangerous because miners have a crucial role in betweens money supply in securing Bitcoin transactions Bitcoin mining is becoming centralized and it's due to a major design flaw in bitcoins core protocol that still remains in fixed if nothing changes it might be that Bitcoin will not survive its next decade in 2008 the global financial system collapsed is all trusted authorities failed to prevent an economic meltdown that cost millions of people their homes jobs and life savings the trusted authorities for big banks that received trillions of taxpayers dollars in bailouts could then use the money to pay their executives fed bonuses and lobby against regulation so Satoshi offered his solution get rid of all trusted third parties Bitcoin was supposed to be a decentralized financial system that will give people freedom to transfer their funds directly among one another without any central authority in between it's a peer-to-peer currency that is controlled by the people bank accounts were replaced by wallets that are free to create and with no restrictions and their use centralized transaction system was replaced with the distributed blockchain it stores all transactions publicly and anybody can download a full copy to run their no money creation and security was transferred from central banks to miners anyone with the computer can contribute with its computational power to help secure the network create new coins and earn money for doing decisions are made not by central authority behind closed doors but through a majority consensus in open discourse Bitcoin works unlike any other bank or financial system there are no background checks no identity verifications and there is no one to tell you what you can and can't do with your bitcoins it's a completely permissionless system but because decisions are based on the network's consensus Bitcoin only works as long as the network's power is distributed enough so that no single entity can act as a majority today much of Bitcoin mining power is concentrated in China which when taken as a single entity could easily exercise unilateral control over the network this could have catastrophic consequences for the whole cryptocurrency the root of the problem is that the majority consensus isn't the majority of the people but the majority of the computational power on the network which means fewer people can control more mining power when you send somebody your bitcoins before your transaction is added to the network it has to pass what is called the proof-of-work bits going take search transaction and put it in a block this block now serves as a set of data that the algorithm encrypts with the hash to generate a unique number of a fixed-length before a block can be added to the blockchain Bitcoin miners have to guess this unique hash when somebody guesses the correct hash they announce it at a network in the block with your transaction is added to the blockchain and that's called proof of work Bitcoin miners use this process to determine their consensus the longest chain of blocks is the one with the most computational power behind it so it is accepted as the single history of transactions now we can ask well what's the point of that in the absence of a central authority controlling and securing transactions Bitcoin in his system he'll make it too difficult and costly for anyone trying to go back and double spend their bitcoins or retrospectively tamper with past transactions because each block is uniquely hashed if they made the slightest change in the transaction it'll generate a new hash for the blog and that would have to redo the proof of work for that block and because hash values of subsequent blocks are dependent on the hash values of the previous ones they'd have to read the proof of work for the subsequent blocks too it's a clever design Bitcoin hashes are difficult to guess and finding them requires a lot of computational power your chances of finding the correct hash on Bitcoin is currently less than 1 in 13 trillion so it's practically a lottery then why would anybody want to waste their precious resources for Bitcoin mining you probably know the answer mining is bitcoins answer to centralize the money supply there is no mint or central bank printing money Bitcoin automatically creates new coins as a reward for miners who find correct hashes this incentivizes miners to bring in more and more computational power to the network to increase their chances of winning the mining lottery but every two weeks Bitcoin is designed to adjust the difficulty level of their hash target so that it always takes roughly ten minutes for miners to find a new hash this is useful for consistency you can rely on the network that it will always take 10 minutes to receive the first confirmation of your transaction 60 minutes to receive 6 confirmations and so on you know where this is going it's miners increase the network's computational power and Bitcoin increases the difficulty level opening new mining operations requires more and more initial investment into better hardware and to cover electricity costs profit margins for newcomers are tiny smaller miners are gradually excluded from the game and incumbent miners accumulate greater and greater share of the network's power and that's how Bitcoin is becoming recent relized why centralization a problem if somebody with bad intentions controls over 50% of the mining power they control the consensus they can a unilaterally decide which transactions go through and which don't or they can even double spend their bitcoins this is known as a 51% attack in 2014 the Bitcoin community was in full mode as for several hours a single mining pool gas you controlled over 50 percent of bitcoins total hash rate - your miners began leaving the pool to reduce their network share and within a day their power dropped by four percentage points lucky for Bitcoin - you didn't do any damage the pool temporarily stopped receiving new registrations in the company allowed miners to easily switch to different pools but not everyone is so fearful of the 51% attack it's possible in theory but there is little if any practical benefit and the attempt to double spend would require redoing all of the hash work not just for the block the transaction was in but also for all the subsequent blocks on the blockchain the can I just go back a number of blocks change some transactions and go back on top of the blockchain as if nothing happened double spending would be self crippling because the rest of the miners would continue adding up to delay these blocks on the longest chain but double spending miners would fall behind by the number of blocks they'd need to redo but even if they succeeded they wouldn't be able to evade detection since all transactions on the ledger are public and could be easily connected to real-life identities any such attempt of economic fraud on Bitcoin would very likely lead to an immediate meltdown of the whole currency and there is not much else someone could do to attack the network even if it's single mining pool controlled to 100% of the hash rate they wouldn't be able to steal other people's bitcoins override the Bitcoin protocol or create new coins at a faster rate than the Bitcoin algorithm allows but what if someone doesn't care about profit and just wants to watch your Bitcoin burn our talk now that's a real problem because the majority of the hash rate is concentrated in China if the Chinese government took control of all of their mining pools they could try to destroy Bitcoin by halting the network or double spending left and right not for fraudulent gains but to devalue the currency in China has a great experience with devolving a currency China is not going away anytime soon as they also dominate Bitcoin trading what's worrying is that Bitcoin isn't big in China for its potential for a libertarian revolution China is interested in its blockchain technology there is wide rise of potential implementation especially in science logistics and Urban Development in China there is little ideological motive to secure the existence of Bitcoin is an ultimate tool of economic liberation very centralization is a problem that Bitcoin might not be able to solve on its own unless there is a major innovation in technology and electricity production that significantly reduces the costs and upfront investment in Bitcoin mining the cryptocurrency won't be able to redistribute its hash rate individual mining is not an option because of the lottery nature of Bitcoin mining miners join mining pools to increase their chance of earning bitcoins which the pools then redistribute among participating miners according to their individual hash rate the problem is that when individual miners join mining pools they are surrendering their control over a construction of blocks and decision on which transactions go in and which don't propose solutions are to strip holes of their control and give it to individual miners but any such implementation would require that enough miners switch to new pools that support the change of rules or that existing pools implement them at their own will the fears of a 51% attack shouldn't be dismissed just because they can hardly be economically feasible the fact that at any given moment China could control up to 80% of Bitcoin mining should be a number-one concern for anyone who wants Bitcoin to go mainstream the movement behind Bitcoin will not work if at any point in authoritarian government in down centralized financial systems can't be trusted and principles behind Bitcoin are the last beacon of a decentralized Internet you
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