Prof. Jeremy Siegel Calls September 2022 FED Interest Rate Decision as a Poor Monetary Decision

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Siegel은 2022년 9월 FOMC의 긴축 기조를 강하게 비판하며 연준이 과도하게 긴축적이라고 주장한다. 핵심 주장: 작년 9월 회의 당시 원자재·주택가격이 급등할 때는 금리 인상이 필요 없다고 했던 연준이, 지금은 원자재·자산가격이 하락하는데도 '고집스러운 인플레이션'을 이유로 2023년까지 긴축을 유지하겠다고 하는 것은 앞뒤가 맞지 않는다고 지적한다. 근거 지표: 유가는 러시아의 우크라이나 침공 이전 수준인 1월 수준으로 복귀했고, 다음 주 발표될 주택지표(케이스-실러 등)는 수년 만에 상승 없음 또는 하락을 보일 것으로 예상한다. 임금만 유일하게 하락하지 않는데, 이는 인플레이션을 밀어올리는 것이 아니라 뒤따라가는 것이라고 본다. 통화 지표: 다음 주 발표될 통화량(M2) 데이터는 전후 최대 감소폭 중 하나(5개월 만의 최대 감소)를 보일 것이라고 언급한다. 실질금리는 모든 만기에서 이미 플러스 영역으로 진입했고, 달러는 20~30년 만의 최고치라고 설명한다. 리스크/조건: 연준이 입장을 바꾸기 전까지 주식에 대한 하방 압력이 지속될 수 있다고 본다. 연준이 실질금리 플러스 목표를 말하지만 이미 달성됐다는 점을 지적한다. 연준 평가: 기자회견에서 날카로운 질문이 없었고, 파월 의장이 시장 지향적 데이터 대신 3개월 연율화 근원인플레이션(후행 지표)을 본다고 비판한다. 정책이 2020~2021년의 과도한 완화에서 이제 경기를 짓누를 정도의 과도한 긴축으로 진자처럼 흔들리고 있으며, 이는 '잘못된 통화정책'이라는 말로도 부족하다고 평가한다. 출연자 전망: 금리 방향에 대한 명시적 예측보다는 연준이 입장을 바꾸지 않는 한 주식 하락 압력이 이어질 것이라는 견해가 중심이다.

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01. you know Scott I find it very amusing I a year ago at that September meeting when we had booming commodity prices housing prices rising at the fastest rate in post-war history uh when we had all Commodities going up at rapid rates uh fed uh chairman Powell and the FED said we don't see any inflation we see no need to raise interest rates in 2022.

02. now when all those very same Commodities and asset prices are going down he sees uh you know stubborn inflation that requires the FED to stay tied all the way through 2023 makes absolutely no sense to me whatsoever way too tight we do not have to get anywhere near that level to stop inflation because all the inflation is basically stock is basically it's not I mean you had a headline just came across three minutes ago oil back to January Devils that's before Russia invaded Ukraine you can see what's happening to Commodities we're going to get the case Shore uh index next week it's going to show no increase or a decrease for the first time in years and that's a lagged indicator on the ground hamadi all the prices are going down the only thing that's not going down is wages and by the way wages are in catch-up mode don't don't argue they're pushing inflation they're lagging inflation I mean workers are trying to get what a little bit back of uh of what the inflation happens to be I think the FED is just way too tight they they're gonna they're making exactly the same mistake on the other side that they made a year ago there are there are those who agree with you who think that the FED is is over steering yeah but that's annoying but saying it doesn't do anything for the scenario that we're currently in if they continue to do it whether you think it's right or wrong if they continue to do it what does it mean for stocks well it you know until he sees the light and says you know what I don't think we have to be so tight um that you know until until that happens you can still have pressure on on stocks I mean and and that's gonna you know that's probably one of the factors you can see the light I mean when you see how high real rates have gone the dollar the highest in 20 or 30 years by the way next Tuesday we're going to get the the monthly uh stock Mark uh money supply data which is going to show the greatest decline in five months that we've had in the post-war period I mean if he looks at any of the monetary or financial indicators you can't say oh we have to keep the mind I mean at his press conference said we have to get real rates into positive territory they're in positive territory for every maturity for the first time we're already there um I mean I I did I thought that was the most uninformative uh I mean and and no one was asking them you know a hard question how do we have 3.2 million new workers and GDP going down what what is what does that mean what is the record declined in the money supply mean I mean what is what is the collapse and commodity prices mean what is the lag construction of of the of these housing indicators that are 40 of the core inflation which are are going to are going to filter through inflation for the next 12 to 15 months is that what he's looking at why is he looking at that um that's not an accurate view of what in housing inflation is I mean there were no hard questions they you know there were 50 reporters there I don't know they basically said oh you know repeat the statement you made at the beginning there's so many things to ask them what is he actually looking at and he's looking at three month annualized core inflation that is a lag while we all look at Market I mean look at what is the stock market do it looks at Market oriented data and that's what the FED should be looking at I don't know that I've seen you this animated you seem down I am very upset yes I am I am I I I'm afraid it's like a pendulum they were way too easy as I've told you and many others do 2020 2021 and now oh my God you know we're gonna be real tough guys until we crush the economy I mean that that is just to me absolutely um poor monetary policy would be an understatement