S&P 500 NOT in A Bubble Says Jeremy Siegel

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S&P 500은 버블이 아니며 2022년 말까지 5,000포인트에 도달할 수 있다는 Siegel의 주장. 시장 전망: 단기 조정(약 20%) 가능성은 인정하나 전반적으로 시장은 적정 가치 수준. 시장은 조정 전에 추가로 10~20% 상승할 수 있으며, 장기 투자자는 현금을 단기 자금으로, 주식을 장기 자금으로 나누는 바벨 전략을 권장. 금리·통화정책: 연준이 인플레이션 대응에 늦었으며 금리 인상 폭이 너무 작고 시기가 늦다고 지적. 연준이 공격적으로 긴축할 것이라 보며, 국채 10년물은 1.5~2% 수준에서 움직일 것. 장단기 금리 역전이 나타날 수 있고 경기침체 우려가 있다고 언급. 인플레이션: 통화량(M2) 급증이 인플레이션의 원인이라는 입장. 공급망 문제는 일시적이 아니라 수요 급증에서 비롯됐으며 인플레이션은 1~3년간 지속될 수 있다고 봄. 재정정책(인프라 법안)도 인플레이션을 자극한다고 평가. 섹터·종목: 줌·펠로톤 등 고평가 성장주 조정, 테슬라는 경쟁 심화로 고PER 정당화 어렵다고 비판적. 배당주와 가치주 선호, 인플레이션 방어 수단으로 배당주 추천. 자사주매입 과세 가능성 언급. 과거 적중 성과: 1년 전 S&P 500 강세장 예측 적중, 금리 1.75~2% 예측도 근접했다고 자평. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기 조정 가능성은 있으나 장기적으로 주식 보유 권장.

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01. s p 500 is not in a bubble in fact it could reach 5 000 by the end of 2022 says my man jeremy siegel huge fan of siegel got his books up there on the shelf as you should too stocks in the long run is a seminal a seminal uh book for the investing world if you don't have stocks in the long run i don't know what to tell you man how legitimate can he be as a investor without knowing the history of it very very interesting anyway so let's read this i was uh i was pleasantly surprised here jeremy he's been a bull him and brian westbury my perpetual bulls and so as such they don't get nearly the notoriety it's perpetual bears harry dent uh who the other guys i can't remember but the uh the perma bears so let's read unless what is the s p 500 it ended on friday where was it down to 40 i don't know what it was let's see here the s p 500 is down to 45.94 all right that's after a tumble on friday of 106 points so uh here we go is uh he's senior investment advisor to wisdom tree funds his book stocks in the long run now his fifth edition is widely recognized as the one of the best books on the best thing 100 uh he's on cnbc he's the university of pennsylvania the whole thing all right this is my 14th annual interview with jeremy uh rob bob hooshberg hoops or hoop sure uh you can access probably look at that that's freaking pretty cool i like this how he says you can access prior interviews in these years that's fantastic that he's not hiding and we'll see what he says in 2008 interesting anyway um we spoke on uh so i spoke with jeremy on wednesday uh november 24th we spoke on november 19th last year almost exactly a year ago the s p then was at 35.62 yesterday close at 46.89 for a gain of 32 percent 32 you correctly predicted the bull market in our interview uh what should investors expect next year all right uh it's important understand why i have a number of accurate forecasts is because my background in monetary theory and policy oh the reason is accurate forecast is because of the academic prowess no that's just silly jeremy um i got a thing in my eye when i spoke to you last year i saw the tremendous unprecedented boost in the money supply that the federal reserve is creating it created it turned out that 2020 was the greatest one-year m2 money supply increase in 150 years that we've had the money was going to the financial markets then broke out into inflation you know what see this oh and how do you describe there is no inflation to speak of for the last 10 years after all the obama spending yes this was the greatest one of your m2 money supply but from 2007 hell from 1966 on we spending money like drunken sailors and other than the 70s we have had no inflation to speak of none so how do you explain this stuff that's what drives me crazy like okay so we they use correlation as causation that drives me up the wall are you saying we weren't spending under trump he spent saying we weren't spending under obama because we were dude and we didn't have massive inflation we just did not so how do you explain that oh because now the monetary supply is the highest has ever been well until it's the highest will ever be it just uh it was the highest ever been in 2008 now and we'd have inflation uh let's see it's very hard to predict year-to-year movements of stock market my basic thesis is that the push of demand liquidity is still going to the markets uh the fed is going to have to move very aggressively against it and there's going to be tremors and equities as if the fed controls inflation i just the idea all right see this is a problem that we have man uh i see upward moving and until the fed gets serious about inflation and what are they gonna do about it then jeremy the fed they're gonna raise uh short-term rates and that's gonna nip inflation in the bud if we get another bad cpi number on the 10th of december uh it might be as early as december 15th when the fed starts raising the inflation isn't because of the economic growth i don't understand this man it's not because economic growth that's not what's causing inflation if i had a target next year i'd say it's 5 000 for the s p 500 all right reaching 5 000 would be another 7 gain but there are many who believe that the market has reached bubble-like valuations and it's due for a correction of about 20 what do you say to those i do not think the mark has a bubble there are certain stocks that are bubble lake and many of them being hit badly and are selling off but the overall market is fairly valued we could have a 20 drop in stock prices a bear market is more than a correction which is defined as 10 to 20 percent but the market but the market might go up 10 to 12 20 before it goes down that's i want to i agree that what i'm saying this is the problem about these permabears the market could go up another 10 to 20 before it fell 10 to 20 percent 100 i completely agree that so all these people sit on the side sitting aside i'm like dude you missed out because they're worried about a bear market you missed now you can jump back in now well it could go up another 10 to 20.

02. i don't think anyone's expecting a 30 but that's the problem is that you've got to say look man at the end of the day if i'm long-term and faster i've got to stay for the long term that means i'm hopefully my trajectory is like this but it's just checkered with some waves in there but you got i mean you you invest for the long term there's no other way around that and you take cash out for the short term cash over here short term stocks over here long term it just it's i that's the barbell right there uh but i wouldn't be surprised to see the market up because of earnings that have been among the strongest we've had in history earnings is the major driver of the market along with all the liquidity all right well what does a lot of these earnings are based on anyone want to take a guess cheap energy cheap energy uh you know last year that uh monetary policy was creating liquidity on main street for consumers and not financial intermediaries like banks of wall street huh uh well the fed's announced monitor okay i've voiced this for some months that the fed is way behind the curve it started to taper too late tapering too slowly it is indicating interest rate increases that are way too small and too far in the future they're going to be forced to accelerate tightening greatly because i do not think that this inflation is temporary and fleeting it's far more permanent and the fred is not the fed has not come to grips with it yeah yeah i mean look i i don't agree that so far it's a it's far more permanent i actually don't agree that at all i do think it's you know one to three years absolutely when the market confronts the fed making a strong pivot you're going to see a more volatile downside i agree with that the situation is very different than 22 000 valuations are much lower than they were in 2000 but most importantly interest rates are gigantically lower than the where they were uh and interest rates are a low relative history and will support the market how does a low that doesn't make sense all right so the idea would be that interest rates are low and that will support the market but the fed's raising so a 25 basis point increase off uh we'll just say 10 year treasure for now is 1.5 we'll just say that's a uh whatever that is that's 25 basis points that's a 25 12 and a half percent increase in interest rates the 25 basis points on a 5 10 year treasury is not even anywhere near that so significant it's almost like a log scale if you look at the log scale at 25 basis point increase in a 10-year treasury and they don't increase a tenure i'm just using that for example because i don't know what the uh the 30-day commercial paper is by the way that's a significant increase relative to the low interest rates and if uh people have been banked on low interest rates and they're not banking on 12 and a half to 25 to 50 increase in interest rates that that that's not going to support the market i don't understand that man the low interest rates aren't supporting the market um i'll come back to question about inflation interest rates in a second but i want to talk about fiscal policy we pass okay um far more important what the fed does those two measures then the the so we've got fiscal monetary monetary the feds the fiscals congress uh those two measures uh will give a little boost to the economy and i'm i'm all in favor what i call the hard infrastructure bill which is bipartisan no only 12 republicans voted for that uh we needed that okay uh nonetheless these fiscal measures are spread out given demand okay you correctly picked it up we'll see a much higher inflation this year your prediction is three to five range core cpi is four the headline number is 5.3 what should we expect of the next year um in march we were going to have cumulative inflation of 20 to 25 percent i'm not talking about one year i'm talking about a period of three to four years seven percent or so so impossible know how to be distributed all right uh for the 35 year period from the mid 80s to the pandemic we only had five and a half percent increase in money supply all right so i like how they're starting to well all right anyway so the 35 i mean this is like the cherry picking of the global warming crap uh for the mid 35 years we only had five and a half percent annual increase in monetary supply uh well let's look from the last 15 years there jeremy what's been an increase in the monetary supply uh that equals real gdp plus inflation that's exactly what the monetary theory would say that's when the pandemic hit we jumped to monetary supply by five and a few months by 15 and then we've been increasing at double digit rates inflation could be worse than i expected we're not going to handle controlling that much so jeremy's mostly work sounds like he's saying the monetary supply as opposed to the interest rates but i don't i don't think that at least in that paragraph uh they're cocky a couple arguments against higher inflation all right uh he said i don't think supply chain issues are isolated and a result of temporary factors they're mostly spurred by the dramatic increase in demand particularly for goods that cannot be met um all right uh when we spoke to 10-year was at 86 last night it goes at 1.68 you predicted that rates would be between 1.75 and 2 percent so you almost got that exactly right uh let's see where will we be from a year from now he thinks the rates will be higher but not as high as inflation uh the met the fed may be forced to invert the curve which means short term rates above long range as we discussed last dramatic demand for long bonds that's a rigid risk hedge asset um it's a great cushion for short-term volatility you might see the long bond next year at two and a half to three we might see the short rate of four we'll see uh inverted an averted yield curve is often a signal for recession do you significantly uh increase risk of recession you look over to the next year we're we may have to go into my recession i actually think we're kind of going into it right i think we're already in there actually um but a recession doesn't mean just oh my goodness you know katie bar the doors uh to add your list of correct predictions last year forecast the residential real estate would perform well that's certainly okay um uh we're all getting sell-offs in those stocks on the uh outside the broad we've over which asset classes look exceptional exceptionally attractive which one should investors avoid we're already getting a selloffs and stocks of the darlings of a slowdown we all loved zoom and peloton but they got way ahead of their skis and there's competition and there's competition for the services many don't have the moat around them as needed to maintain a super high p e ratio tesla is a brand that's unique but there's competition even the ev space did you you probably didn't because everyone's a you know they never highlight bad news on tesla a second car burned a tesla battery just combusted and burned this guy's house down in pennsylvania there's two times and pennsylvania has happened weird you don't see that i like value stocks not just because of the reopening uh people are going to be searching for yield that's inflation protected throughout history dividend deals on stocks match and in fact exceed inflation i completely agree that dividend paying stocks should be favored particularly given our tax structure and that's why there may be a tax on buybacks that is in the house bill the bill is going to senate and we'll see if they retain it but dividend-paying stocks tend to be value stocks and they may shine in 2022.

03. all right we're gonna stop there i completely agree with some of that um i have no clue if the s p 500 is gonna go up another seven percent i don't know frankly don't care because it's impossible to know and why why waste any inc uh just worried about it just you got your short-term money you got your long-term money and let the rest fall where it may it's just that simple but again for my long-term money i agree i like dividend-paying stocks that's probably your best hedge against inflation all right love your thoughts we'll see you