저자: JoelGreenblatt · 외국인
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결론: 장기 복리와 저평가 종목 발굴이 핵심이며, 개별 자산의 단기 방향은 예측하지 않는다. 복리와 조기 투자: 19~26세에 연 2,000달러를 7년간 납입하고 그 뒤 방치한 사람이, 26~65세에 40년간 납입한 사람보다 연 10% 수익률 기준 더 많은 돈을 모은다. 시작 시점이 중요하다는 교훈. 소형주·비효율 영역: 주목받지 않는 소형주나 스핀오프처럼 가격이 잘못 매겨지기 쉬운 영역에서 기회를 찾는다. 스핀오프 전체 평균 수익이 아니라 저평가 기회 여부가 핵심이라고 강조. 애플 관점: 하드웨어 회사 대 브랜드·생태계 기업 논쟁을 제기하며 답은 중간쯤일 것이라고 말한다. 과거 대비 시장 대비 절반 수준 밸류에이션에서 저렴하다고 평가했지만 애플 단일 종목의 성패는 확신하지 않는다고 밝힘. 분산과 저평가 묶음: 애플 한 종목이 아니라 현금흐름 수익률이 높고 자본수익률이 좋으며 싸게 거래되는 '사과 바구니(여러 기업)'를 보유한다고 설명. 시장 전망: S&P 500은 비싸지만 향후 양(+)의 수익을 기대할 수 있다고 봄. 패시브 ETF 확산으로 단기적 가격 괴리가 생기며, 급락 시 상관관계가 1로 몰리는 구간이 지나면 종목 간 옥석 가리기가 시작되어 그때가 기회라고 언급.
다듬은 글
if you know compound interest tables you could do very well over uh you know with a smoother ride over a long period of time one of the uh the best examples when I when I taught those ninth graders I actually put on the outside of their notebooks I hand them notebooks and on the outside I had a compound interest table and it had the example of starting investing uh two thousand dollars a year when you're 19 but you know in your IRA until you're 26.
so seven years of putting away two thousand and never putting another nickel in again or starting when you're 26 and putting in 2 000 a year for 40 years until you're 65. so uh the people who put in 2000 a year from age 19 to 26 and never put in another nickel ended up with more money if you earn 10 a year on that money they ended up with more money with those seven payments than the people who started 26 and put in 40 payments until they were 65.
you end up with more money uh the the 19 to 26 just a very important lesson to learn about starting early I know all of you are over 19 so I'm sorry I didn't tell you this but but these kids these kids weren't and so compound interest tables are important so uh you're young uh if you if you stay with a very methodical investment strategy that makes sense over time you can all still do very very well well information I mean people have information on the S P 500 stocks there's still a lot of group think going on some of these situ you know what I tell my students is some of these smaller cap that you know what happens if you're very good at doing things like you read you can be a stock market genius and and buy some of these things in these obscure places and what I would call it is taking unfair bets you know not because you're so smart but because you found it in a place that other people aren't looking uh what happens to people who get good at that is they get a lot of money and then they can't do that anymore uh because they have too much money so it opens a whole new uh area for young people to keep coming into to that so certainly some of the smaller situations will always be there uh the things may be a little more efficient but there's been plenty of studies uh you know one of the big chapters I wrote was on spin-offs which are companies that are sort of separated from and those still work very well but it sort of Misses uh you know they've studied like if you bought all the spin-offs how would you do and they continue to outperform that's not really the question the question is is this an area ripe for mispriced Securities I mean if the average spin-off did average that wouldn't mean anything to me you're looking for the opportunity where people are discarding things or just not interested in things for reasons that don't have to do with the investment merits they may be too small it may not be the company that the people who own the original stock invested in uh usually you discard companies that are out of favor at that time so even though on average they've continued to outperform pretty much as well as when I wrote the book so that's not discouraging but even if they did average it's they still are ripe for mispricing really what I'm looking for so you're looking in these areas that are ripe for mispricing it's you don't have to run a statistical model to decide whether on average they do well or they don't if you know what you're looking for you're looking for opportunities to find things that are mispriced and I don't think those will go away but as I said you know they're higher better higher and better uses for most people's time so I had a ball all doing that I have a ball doing what I'm doing if you don't want to do it fine with me well I'll pick apple is just big big picture you guys have heard of that yeah so uh you know you know at least I'm old enough to have had a Blackberry and uh you know used to have 50 of the market now it doesn't really exist it wasn't that long ago uh and some people and the vast majority of Apple's profits come from their phone so that's the negative story on Apple it's a hardware company it's going to crash and burn like all of them do okay uh on the other hand uh some people might say it has an ecosystem of products that play off one another they interact with one another it has a brand you know I always say hey Coca-Cola doesn't make sugar water and they you know have kept their brand pretty well people tend to like apple has a brand and uh and so the question is which is it you know is it a hardware Apple a hardware company or is it a ecosystem of products with a great brand name I'd say the answer is probably gray somewhere in between it's not either one it's probably somewhere in between those two uh but you know the if you if you took a look at the market you know I can look at where the s p is trading I can look where Apple's Trading uh uh and you know you know a few months ago it's still very cheap but a few months ago I was trading at less than half of the valuation of the s p so at a price my answer is if it's somewhere in between I'd say it's probably better than average and I'm getting it at half price I don't know if that's right but I have a large margin of safety I own hundreds of bet you know what I say is what we do now is I don't know the answer to your question it's great I don't know the answer I don't know if it's closer to hardware company I don't know if it's uh if it's a ecosystem with a brand attached and you know so it's it's much much better but you know with interest rates are two percent it's got a 10 free cash flow yields earns High Returns on Capital it's got a great Niche what I would say is I don't know if Apple's going to work but I don't own just Apple I own a bucket of apples I own a bucket of companies with metrics like that trading really cheap uh with uh deploys Capital well with uh nice potential prospects and so I don't know if Apple's going to work I know my bucket of apples is going to work that was the chart I showed you and so we own the bucket of apples uh but if you ask my bet on Apple I think it's cheap relative to uh two other choices right now well I I told you where I thought the market in general you know it's a market cap waiting index the s p uh 500 uh was expensive but still expecting positive returns going forward it's a world of alternative so the question is uh you know how should I invest my money you know the move to passive uh can call you know with all the ETFs and everything else can cause dislocations in the short term because uh people are not Discerning uh each company remember I said the stocks are not piece of paper that bounce around that you put sharp ratios and sertinos on their ownership shares of businesses and businesses there's a dispersion in their fundamentals you know how one's doing versus another when you just take an ETF and don't discern between the differences in the fundamentals that can cause dislocations in the short term that just makes me smile more uh because those dislocations mean hey I can find Bargains because people stop thinking uh but I don't think they're at such an extent that other than in the short term I think you're familiar when the market Falls and everyone gets depressed all at once they say correlations go to one that just means everyone throws the baby out with the bathroom they don't make no discernment but that really just happens for the first month maybe two at the most and then there starts to be discernment that's actually the best opportunity time for us when people start Discerning again and you just had everything moved together which it should they all have different prospects
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