원문 보기
foreign macro investor for over 50 years and one of the things I learned is that some of the things that surprised me with the most were things that never happened in my lifetime but happened many times before I learned that in 1971 when I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and the United States on August 15th President Nixon got on the television and he told the rest of the world that the gold that the dollars is supposed to be converted into you won't get and there was a devaluation I worked on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and I thought it was going to go down a lot and it went up a lot and I found the same thing happened on March 1933 with Roosevelt doing the same thing and that taught me history repeats but not necessarily in our lifetime so three things are happening in our lifetimes that never happened before and I saw that a few years ago and I started to need to do that study and those three things are the amount of creation of debt and the printing of money to monetize that debt which is having its effects on inflation on the value of money on many things the second is the amount of internal conflict that we're having the conflict over wealth and values the great polarity that has gotten to the point of having irreconcilable differences and are threatening our system and the third is the rise of a great power to challenge the existing great power and the existing World Order In other words the rise of China 1945 we created the existing world order that we're in and that is being challenged so that's what prompted me to study those things and in order to do that I had to study last 500 years of History because these are Big Cycles thinking about the rise and decline of a reserve currency and its Empires is a big cycle and it was eye-opening but I want to emphasize that the big cycle it helped me understand what's going on right now with the Ukraine war with the elections that are going to come up with the economy and so on so that's why I did it I would not have been able to anticipate the 2008 financial crisis if I didn't study the Great Depression so this is true and this is one of the curses of our existence is that we haven't been through Wars before our generation has not had experiences before things that happen regularly so experiences and painful experiences have thought me and I needed it we're going into an environment with this large creation of data imprinting of money which is very much like going from the 1960s to the 1970s you know what happens is people get used to an environment there's a paradigm and a paradigm is sort of a mindset and so if you look at it they often last about a decade the 70s was an inflationary decade the 80s was a disinflationary decade and they start off with surprises because the decades are more opposite and similar to the prior decade so for example we're coming into the mechanics of you create a lot of money and debt and it's going to devalue it and it's going to produce inflation but there's not an inflation understanding so there's a mentality for example that people think well what's safe is to keep my money in cash because it doesn't go up and down and it's safe and they haven't yet learned that it's not safe because you lose buying power and so if the inflation rate is seven percent and you have a zero return you just lost seven percent buying power so by helping people to understand those things how the environments have changed and the cause affect relationships and where we are in the middle of it has been very helpful what makes a country healthy and successful one of the things I did was use measurements so that you can measure these things and there's a cycle and the cycle starts off with the basics usually there's a in water and water means a new system that comes into place 1945 there's a war the winners of the war get to determine the rules that war can be an external War it could be a civil war but then the new power comes in and there's a new system new rulers and the basics start off with good quality civility with each other education education is a leading indicator of everything if you put education and Civility and working together and not having the conflicts that period usually after the war is a period of peace and prosperity also because there's a dominant power nobody wants to fight the dominant power and it's also Wars are a great leveling devices they reduce wealth gaps they wipe out debts and so on and so there's a cycle of that kind of improvement but naturally as things improve and living standards arise wealth gaps widen and also debts increase increase and it's quite true for countries that have reserved currencies because they're allowed to borrow from the rest of the world because the rest of the world wants to save in that currency and so quite often that cycle produces a lot more debt and larger wealth gaps it also produces great inventiveness but it also enters a new generation who haven't been through War who might become maybe a little bit more decadent and not invest in infrastructure and education and the fundamentals that make things healthy and as a result you get larger wealth gaps and you get angry and you have more debt and so a classic set of ingredients is that level of indebtedness and then losing the fundamentals and of course what happens is other competitors rise so other countries after the war um Germany Japan they recover China and other countries recover and they become viable competitors in that and so the power of that one in power ceases to be as dominant and then they've become more conflicts so they're a fundamentals now the fundamentals are basically are you hurting more than you're spending are you well educated and civil with each other are you productive are you competitive in the world and so you can go from country to Country right now and almost assess that those countries which are earning more than their spending that people are civil with each other and there's not internal order and there's not a risk of an external conflict are the ones that are best off the Ukrainian situation is part of a greater story which is the world being bifurcated and not dominated by a single power and you can see how it's lining up you can see which countries by their actions are lining up which ways in this conflict the United States the NATO countries as it pertains to the Ukraine but not as it would pertain to Asia and you could see China Russia and you could see actions by India and so on who is acting in what ways and you will see that lineup be carried through in terms of things like will there be a G20 meeting and who will be on what side of the issues pertaining to that so you're seeing this world polarity begin to line up and you're seeing questions we'll see is like a test War many cases in most cases in war there's not a good understanding of how the actual War would take place so it's very interesting when there is an actual War to take place to learn things such as learning what the military power is and the possibility of escalating that war by Russia if Putin loses that war that they go to other escalated forms of conflict such as nuclear and also it's a test of American sanctions the greatest weapon the United States has the only really unique weapon anymore is the power of its economic sanctions so the world is getting to see will those sanctions work will they change the outcome for example what will be the economic consequences to Russia of those will that be a 10 or 12 percent decrease in GDP which would mean not a very tolerable set of circumstances and so we're learning three things I think we're learning at the moment for first will Putin and Russia win this war and I'll Define win the war as being able to have control of the Southeastern part of the Ukraine and gain territory number two the impact on Russia is less than intolerable in other words it's tolerable number three that he remains in power if those things exist then he would have a wit in other words the cost of it would have been worth it so there's that question the second question is what will this mean for sanctions the power of sanctions and also the cost of sanctions because we have a cost in the form of holders of dollar denominated assets in many countries are now nervous that they could be sanctioned you know will the Chinese will the Indians will the Middle Easterns who would might be sanctions and that's having an effect on Capital flows so what we'll learn what will that affect me and then we will learn of how off the sides line up and that is really a lot of learning for what the next episode is going to look like it's so interesting if you were to watch these things happen on World War II you'd see almost identical in other words you would see that Japan was sanctioned series of sanctions the oil was embargoed the assets were frozen and they were trapped in a sense economically and then they responded with Pearl Harbor and you could see always economic Warfare intense like that cut them off is something that happens before there's a military conflict it's almost like it reads the same it's true that over time the world has become more interconnected it's interesting but the first World War I mean think about if you go back a few hundred years it took a day in a day you could travel 25 miles today in a day you can be on the other side of the world there's instant Communications so the first world war was the first world war and the second world War brought us minor together and it was the second world war and so then we are all connected and that brings us in that position history has shown interestingly that connections did not minimize the chances of war in fact for example in World War One in order to minimize the chances of Wars which was then run by royalties they intermarried and there was nothing closer than to be intermarried and yet they went into World War one and so on so I think the connectivity and it also brings up other issues like literally cyber connectivity and so on and it creates a dynamic it means that there are less safe places in this world war so it makes it I think very important that we don't get into a war today how we are with each other is scaringly different and it's measured in the statistics and the charts that are shown in my book there is the greatest political polarity since 1900 and there's a real question of whether in the next election either side will accept losing there is a question about the acceptance of the rules there is a moving to different states not just for tax reasons but for values differences great great differences and there's much more fighting between the rich and the poor and there are great differences greater differences it becomes always more and more intense until there is a war we are in the early stages of a type of Civil War you know that's what goes on and of course once you cross a line then there's a fight when the causes the people are behind are more important to them than the system the system is in Jeopardy and that's what we have
댓글 0