저자: 미상 · 외국인
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찰리 멍거의 '거꾸로 생각하기(역발상)'를 일상·사업·투자에 적용하는 법을 소개. 최악의 선택지를 먼저 떠올려 피하는 방식이 실용적이며, 분산투자의 중요성과 역사적 사례(페루치·메디치 은행)를 언급. 한 기업 의존 리스크와 워런 버핏의 경영 방식에 대한 논의 포함. 개별 자산의 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
Is it available now? What's your opinion, or do you want to share some learnings from the financial sector that one learns about? This risk assessment can actually be implemented so coolly in everyday life, because it makes extreme sense for everyday life. This is n't just relevant in the economic sphere, where one says, okay, this is how you assess risks, but this would actually be a very cool tactic for any everyday decision.
Do you have anything handy or can you think of anything? Because I always find it really cool when you have such transfer effects. Yes, definitely. I can think of many things, but... My favorite example, which I would give, is Charlie Munger. This is Warren Buffett's perfect partner . In his Texan slang, he always has the wisdom of simply saying, "Invert, baby, invert," which is basically the act of inverting.
And to break it down, if you have any new project as an entrepreneur, ask yourself the question: what is the dumbest thing you can do to almost certainly ruin the project? And if you've been thinking about what the stupidest thing you could do is, then logically you have to do the exact opposite. And that's a tactic that works not only in finance, but also in entrepreneurship, if you do it that way, or even in relationship issues.
Yes . No matter where, you say, like before, Manuel or the relationship with Manuel is now headed for disaster , but that's for sure, where are his trigger points, if I press on them, then that's definitely problematic. Then you already have an image of something you do n't want or that isn't possible.
And that often brings me extreme clarity in my life . Full. Because everyone – and this is a misconception in the financial sector – believes that you always have to choose the right thing. But if you tell the truth, you do n't actually have to do the biggest stupid things, and then you're already doing relatively well.
And this isn't just an issue in the financial sector, but also in other areas. In life in general. I think it's in nutrition and fitness. Yes, exactly, it doesn't matter at all. Entrepreneurship, yes. Yes, it doesn't matter at all. And at the end of the day, of course, a relationship. Absolutely. If you leave out the biggest stupidities there , then it is also from him in that context it is never multiply by zero.
I think that also comes from Charlie Munger. Yes, I'm not entirely sure now, but I think it's exactly right . Well, I don't know either, but if you put it that way, I do n't know, in the realm of relationships, yeah, there's just this one thing, just don't do it. In sports, you just don't get injured.
Then stick with it. In the investment sector, just make sure you do n't earn 100%. That 's kind of... Mhm. Then yes, but in the investment sector, otherwise, if I break it down to my area , that area is the first point: do n't put all your eggs in one basket. Mhm. Yes, that's clear. 100 Investments in Stocks.
The second big topic, so if I want to drive straight into a wall, is, uh, buy an illiquid stock. Mhm. Well, uh, nothing else comes to mind, a pumpkin seed oil miller from southern Styria who produces Inca bulgur wheat and then maybe sells it in Asia so that the pumpkin seed oil is preserved there and you can then boil it with a Bunsen burner.
It's not completely made up, don't worry. Not yet . not yet . Uh, where there's low daily turnover, and go in there with full leverage right from the start. Then you don't need to use my, uh, private assets. That means I'll borrow an apartment , mhm. Take out a loan, whatever it takes, hit up my mom, hit up my mother-in-law, anyone who gives me money, and go all in on the pumpkin seed oil mill.
Then, uh, I feel very sure that this will go wrong. With a high [snorting] probability. Mhm. in true Charlie Munger style, he'll be driven straight into a wall. And uh, that 's one thing you simply shouldn't do there. And the second topic, which he only addresses in his own story, when it comes to...
I think we already said that back then in the video, right? With the diversification aspect, which is so important. Also, where the idea of diversification comes from. Because it's totally bizarre, I don't know if you've heard this, but diversification already came from the Florentine area in the 14th century.
And that's actually pretty cool in terms of the story. There were actually two banking families there. The Beruzzis lived there. It's kind of like this moneyed aristocracy. Marketing madness! They even had the English king, Edward, as a customer . That's obviously awesome if you have Edward from England as your customer in the 14th century.
I think you can do that . Write that up as a testimonial. Conversely, they gave the king an extremely large amount of money, and he effectively financed his lifestyle, which was also quite extravagant. So, in terms of relationships, it would probably be like this: how it crashes into a wall, that's how it will be resolved.
He waged so many wars that he probably had few enemies in Europe and state coffers were chronically empty. And they essentially helped finance that. And on the other hand, there were the Medici , whom everyone probably knew, but probably nobody knows the Peruzzi anymore. I did n't know about it until recently or a few years ago.
And the Medicis, to put it bluntly , were nothing more than shady moneylenders. I almost have to say it, they've put some kind of benches on the streets of Florence. In my mind, they were beer benches. Then, essentially, everyone who came along on this beer bench became a bit of a god. And that's why the term "banker" comes from , because these banks, as it were, lent money to anyone who came along.
That's obviously at an exorbitant interest rate, but thousands of people have taken advantage of it. If someone drops out, that's never an issue, of course. Dear Edward simply could n't or wouldn't pay for the Peruzzi anymore. And that ultimately led to the ruin of the Peruzzi bank. And the idea of this diversification, which is actually really strange, is still everywhere.
And that affects us somewhere in our private lives, it affects us somewhere in our professional lives, and at the end of the day, of course, it also affects our investments. And that, in my view, is the difference between gaming and not gaming . So if you put a King Edward in there , I mean, it could go well, I do n't want to deny it, but it does n't necessarily have to go well.
And in terms of risk management, and in your entrepreneurial role, it's never a bad thing to have not just one A-pillar , but perhaps two or three. Of course, it's great when you have a world-class customer who generates 100% revenue, yes, absolutely. But as I said, on the other hand, there is of course also a certain risk involved .
What if he does n't want one anymore? Mhm. That is to say, I personally feel more comfortable when I have at least a slightly broader base. Yes, or I could take the king and really delve into the depths with him. I will continue trading there. I make sure he does everything and that he takes care of it, because the king has some money .
Yes, but I mean in terms of the idea that the stand is already there. But if you were talking about Warren Buffett earlier, that's always a bit of a misconception when you use him, because that's exactly what he does . He often goes into a company and then turns things upside down himself, or he's actually an entrepreneur and less of a 10% investor, right?
That's how I understand his role better. Yes, I see it a little differently, namely, he did do that , as you say, but he always put trusted people in there. Okay, but he has actively influenced the company in some way. He tried, but not everywhere. OK. So, as a rule, he makes sure that the management is honest and that he puts his trusted people in positions of authority .
Yes, good. But I think he was, uh, in principle, uh, I don't mean this in a derogatory way, but he was a relatively simple man. 100% Still the same . Well, partly, as is often the case , he has a second side to him. So, in total, if I remember correctly, he owns approximately 146 billion, starting from zero, which is a really large amount of money.
But as I said, living together is probably not fun either, because in his biography , I'm just quoting it now, it says that he sometimes always compares things in terms of their monetary value. That would be exactly the same. The hairdresser, his wife's hairdresser, for 150 dollars, I mean, you have to imagine, 150 dollars to uh 150 billion, so just in relation to that, it 's somehow too expensive for him, because it costs 150 euros, but if he were to invest that on the stock market and for who knows how many years, then it would come out to 2378 euros, what are the costs of a hairdresser compared to that?
Yes, exactly, that's why we want it ourselves. No, I say, and then at some point life just is n't fun for me anymore, at least not there. Because if you calculate the time value of every cappuccino you ever have or every vacation you ever take, it's because of the cost of money. But I think that takes away some of the fun.
For him, that's what's great. Well, I don't believe that you can make it work for 80 years out of scarcity . It simply has to be this way. You, the one I mean, who would be better described as a biography, still lives in his house in Oklahoma in the same condition, having renovated virtually nothing.
He goes to McDonald's to eat his stories , drinks his Coke every day. Of course, he's involved too, obviously. As it should be. And so he is de facto completely above reproach and he is already an entrepreneur, you can see that with this Berkshire conference or Berkshire his company. And he does it in such a way that he turns it into a real trade fair event during his lifetime.
That means he invited the entire global investor community to Oklahoma. Everyone must now make a pilgrimage to him. Charlie Munger was also there with those guys on the podium. They were more or less having some fun there, entertaining people, [snorting] giving really cool messages. And the cool thing was, it was a trade fair where all his companies had exhibition stands .
And each investor could then, I don't know, buy some furniture or whatever from companies A, B, C. And then all of that was sent home. That means he made sure that his companies actually did business at the trade fair . I don't know, I really thought the way he set that up was awesome . And that's when you notice it, so...
Okay, cool, I just think you can learn a lot from these people . I think there's a lot to it . Absolutely. Investor legends. Absolutely. What a question? But yes. What you can take from the investment sector into real life . Yes, yes, that's definitely the case, yes. Do you have any further questions?
On this topic. No, I have a lot of information in my head, a few to-dos. And now I'll always have "Inward Baby Inward" in my head.
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